Commentary- Russia/USSR- Business as Usual, Georgia War Background, United24- Aid to Ukraine

I have recently been researching Russian military doctrine. The latest official release of their doctrine that I could find was from 2014, though there appears to have been a more recent revision apparently without significant changes. One document that clearly outlines and analyses the 2014 doctrine is a NATO Research Paper (from 2015)- “Russia’s 2014 Military Doctrine and beyond: threat perceptions, capabilities and ambitions.” Clicking the link takes you to a downloadable PDF.

The paper opens with a quote by George Kennan writing as “X” in Foreign Affairs Magazine in July, 1947, which fairly summed up the doctrine then and does so even more accurately today (just substitute “Russian” for “Soviet” if you feel the need):

Today the major part of the structure of Soviet power is committed to the perfection of the dictatorship and to the maintenance of the concept of Russia as in a state of siege, with the enemy lowering beyond the walls. And the millions of human beings who form that part of the structure of power must defend-at all costs this concept of Russia’s position, for without it they are themselves superfluous.

There you have it. In my estimation, the “new Russia” project, which grew out of the collapse of the Soviet Union as of 08 December, 1991, began as a recovery and stabilisation project. As it progressed it became less passive and cooperative, even obsequious, and developed the current doctrine of intervention, power projection, and offensive enlargement. Again, back to the same old tricks, that is, the promotion of total state power through control of the media, security apparatus, a growing army and military industrial complex, withdrawal from treaties and cooperative security organisations, increased missile testing and development, increased numbers and capability of nuclear arms, disregard for the UN and the rules it has agreed to abide by as a member, and broken continually, and so on ad infinitum.

All of this leads to the present day- blatant invasion of a sovereign country with concomitant genocide and war crimes and plans to continue the same across Europe and Asia until Russia’s “great power” has been restored. Regarding war crimes, those in Ukraine are certainly not the first Russia has engaged in- read about recent warrants issued for war crimes in the Georgia war of 2008.

For background on the Georgia war, and an assessment of both Georgian and Russian performance in the war, see the United States Army War College Press Monograph 576, “The Russian Military and the Georgia War: Lessons and Implications.”  Although the war was conducted in 2008, and the monograph published in 2011, it provides detailed and useful background data on Russia’s largest military operation up to 2008, discusses Russian shortcomings, and is a good starting point for understanding changes in Russian forces and doctrine since then. The monograph together with the NATO Research Paper noted above highlight the changes that Russia sought to make and how their failure to implement many of those changes are clearly visible in their performance in Ukraine.

So where does that summary leave us? First, we are on the right track- the west, US, Europe, and the world at large with support for Ukraine. We must continue to support them, and continue to increase our support whether it be food and clothing, medical supplies, ammunition, or the most high-tech weapons systems at our disposal. Russian resources are growing thin. Russian support of Putin’s war of conquest will soon reach a tipping point, and perhaps we’ll see the entire structure come tumbling down. And when that happens we must take full advantage of the situation, and not squander it, and the security of Europe and the world, as we did in the 1990’s!

For today, there are so many ways that each of us can help Ukraine. See the list of links to sites where you can donate in the upper right. United24 is the main Ukrainian government clearinghouse for donations. The Ukrainian Army of Drones is one of the most effective ways you and I can help Ukraine defend itself. Right now Mark Hamill, of Star Wars fame, has become an ambassador of UNITED24 and its Drone Army.  Follow the link to learn more, and to to make a “dronation” to help Ukraine protect its skies.

As of today, 30 January 2023:

Russian combat losses as of 30 January, 2023

 

Ukraine Updates, and Escaping Russian Energy

Eastern Europe is moving forward to replace Russian energy- see the 07 December article at the BIRN website which discusses Balkan-Azerbaijani talks on energy cooperation. The strategic energy partnerships discussed have huge repercussions for the Russia. Not only do the negotiations, and the current and proposed projects allow for the independence of the target countries from Russia, they also grant another measure of independence and security to source countries such as Azerbaijan, and other former Soviet Bloc countries who are part of the projects. If these projects are seen through- and they must be- the power gained by Russia in its weaponisation of energy will continue to decrease.

From the Radio Free Europe website, the article Uzbekistan Rejects Putin-Proposed ‘Trilateral Natural Gas Union’ is another indication that the region, its goals and allegiances are changing. 

Aljazeera reported more promising news in the article EU, Western Balkans leaders meet amid fears of Russian influence. 

From the ISW website, here is their RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, DECEMBER 7.
The key takeaways for the day follow:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine.
• Putin is using Russia’s Human Rights Council to consolidate power while rejecting principles of international human rights law.
• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made comments supporting ISW’s previous assessments that an operational pause in the winter of 2022-2023 would favor Russia.
• Russian forces used Shahed-136 drones in Ukraine for the first time in three weeks.
• Russian efforts to pressure Belarus into joining the war in Ukraine may be causing friction in the Belarusian military.
• Russian forces are likely increasing the pace of their counterattacks in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas.
• Russian forces continued defensive operations and the reorientation of their forces in eastern Kherson Oblast.
• Independent Russian media sources indicated that mobilization efforts will continue despite statements from Russian officials to the contrary.
• Russian occupation authorities are likely transforming Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast, into a rear military and logistics base for Russian forces.

You can support small business in Ukraine- visit the Made With Bravery website and so some holiday shopping! The website is making a difference- it supports small businesses and the war effort through donations to United24, which collects funds for Ukraine. Here is a quote from an email I just received from them:

For the 2 months of brave work, together with your help, we transferred 722,000 UAH or 18,700 EUR to United24, and we will continue to do so! 

To remind you, we transfer all profit from the marketplace commission to the presidential fundraising platform United24 in the direction of ‘Rebuild Ukraine.’ Plus, 5% will be transferred on top if a purchase is made with Visa.

The funds are deposited into the account of the National Bank of Ukraine, and then a special platform commission is directed to current programs for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Currently, we are choosing an exact object for which our brave community will collect the funds. We will keep you informed in the following emails.

Finally, as reported on the Telegram channel Ищи своих Russian war dead has reached nearly 93,000.

Russian war dead as of 07 December, 2022

 

Missile Strikes Poland; Made With Bravery- Supporting Ukrainian Businesses

The main news item today, for me, is the Russian-made missile striking inside Polish territory. The investigation is still underway as to who fired the missile, but a report on Aljazeera states that it was likely fired as part of Ukrainian defenses against a missile barrage launched by Russia:

Moscow’s forces launched 110 missiles and 10 Iranian-made attack drones throughout the country, the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said, leaving millions of households without power.

Ukraine said more than 70 missiles were shot down, but some hit the city of Lviv, near the border with Poland to the west.

Either way, it has made a stir.  The fact that there are missiles flying around Europe at all should be our focus of attention. Why is this happening in the year 2022? Somewhere in the morning’s news items I did see that reports from Russia indicate that more and more people are speaking out, in social media at least, against the war and Putin.  Good, please keep it up! And if there is anyone inside of Russia reading this that is still on the fence about where that country is going, in my expert opinion your trajectory is unsustainable. Or, in Russian, buduschego net. That it, unless you take action and make big changes in your government immediately.

Made With Bravery and United24

Recently I was introduced to the website Made With Bravery, a marketplace for Ukrainian businesses. The site launched in mid-September, and currently has around 250 merchants with products on the site. Not only do the merchants continue to do business, but the site donates all of their marketplace commissions, and an additional 5% if you pay with Visa, to United24. I am placing my first order today, for holiday gifts.