The easiest way to keep up-to-date on events on the ground in Ukraine is to visit the Institute For The Study of War website. You can also find updates on the developing situation in Iran there as well. The following is from their update for 02 December, 2022.
Key takeaways from the day’s update:
- Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel obliged to make preemptive concessions to lure Russia to the table.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated as the basis for negotiations precisely the same demands that the Russian Foreign Ministry had made before the February 24 invasion, and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitrii Peskov added the further demand that the West recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory.
- Russian forces still pose a threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite the success of Ukrainian air defenses.
- Additional Western air defense systems are prompting the Russian pro-war community to question the Russian air campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.
- Russian officials are setting conditions to negotiate the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), an agreement upon which Russia would likely renege and that would not eliminate or diminish the ongoing threat to the ZNPP.
- Ukrainian forces made localized breakthroughs southwest and northwest of Kreminna.
- Russian forces continued to make minimal advances in the Bakhmut area and conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area.
- Russian forces may be struggling to properly allocate and deploy forces in rear areas in southern Ukraine due to Ukrainian strikes.
- Poor logistics, unruly mobilized personnel, and domestic protests continue to prevent the Kremlin from achieving the goals of partial mobilization.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to attempt to mask military development projects in occupied territories for no obvious reason.
Russian war dead: from the Telegram Channel Ищи своих (“Look For Your…”) as of 02 December, 2022, the latest figure for Russian war dead has exceeded 90,000.
Finally, from the Telegram Channel Center for Countering Disinformation from yesterday, Putin appears to be losing support:
#CCD_informs: the administration of the russian president is limiting the number of open sociological surveys on the attitude of russians to the war in Ukraine. State and pro-government russian mass media, sociological centers were instructed not to pedal the military topic and to focus on a «positive» agenda
🔻 The reason is that the attitude of russians towards war has deteriorated, in particular after mobilization and military defeats
🔸 According to the results of a closed sociological survey conducted by putin’s FSS in November, only 25% of respondents support the continuation of the war (in July – 57%, in March – 71%), the share of those who support peace negotiations with Ukraine increased from 32 % to 55%
🔻putin’s authorities are trying to hide the sharp drop in support for the war in Ukraine in russian society. The kremlin fears that a shift in public sentiment could lead to a collapse in putin’s own approval rating and massive anti-war protests
Points of note for today:
- Aljazeera reports first war crimes trail of Russian soldier will begin.
- Also causing a stir with Russia, Finland will join NATO, with Sweden likely to follow within days.
- UKRINFORM website reports Russia has used about 70% of its arsenal of high-precision missiles.
- The same site reports that Russia is unable to fully restore the combat capability of military units withdrawn from Ukraine.
- Add Bulgaria to the list of countries to keep an eye on as another Putin apologist, a former Bulgarian presidential advisor, works to destabilise Bulgaria and in crease support of Russia.
Finally, while we would like to believe that all large, multi-national companies are supporting Ukraine and have left Russia, this is not the case. Companies such as Nestle, MARS, Danone, Procter & Gamble, Philip Morris, and PepsiCo to name a few, are still doing business in Russia to one degree or another- still selling products, selling a limited range of products, and paying employees (and therefore taxes to the Russian government).
The following is reposted from the Telegram channel Center for Countering Disinformation, 11-12 May, 2022:
Russia as a terrorist state-
Given the beginning of Western countries’ recognition of Russia as a terrorist state, it is necessary to inform about the consequences of such a decision for it
- A state sponsor of terrorism is a country that, in accordance with the official position of the US State Department, provides support for acts of international terrorism.
- 10.05.2022 – Lithuania recognizes Russia as a terrorist country. The Lithuanian Seimas has adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a terrorist state.
- 10.05.2022 – the US Senate registered a resolution recognizing Russia as a sponsor of terrorism.
Inclusion on such a list entails severe economic and political sanctions, including:
- ban on arms supplies (export and sale)
- control over the export of dual-use goods
- ban on economic aid
- various financial and other restrictions
Baltic States deny Russian propaganda victory-
Russian propaganda claims that the campaign launched by the governments of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to recognize Russia as an aggressor country is not supported by the Russian-speaking population of these countries
But the kremlin’s hopes of using Russian-speaking minorities to justify the special operation proved futile.
🔺On April 21, the parliamentarians of Estonia and Latvia recognized the Russian actions as genocide of the Ukrainian people
🔺Latvian opposition Harmony party, which represents the interests of Russian-born voters, unanimously condemned the aggression
🔺Estonian faction of the Centrist Party, based on the Russian-speaking electorate, signed a statement in support of Ukraine
🔺Lithuanian parliamentarians unanimously adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a state that supports and commits terrorism
🔺According to a survey conducted by the Baltic agency SKDS, 68% of Russian-speaking respondents support Ukraine, take part in actions in support of Ukraine and help refugees.
Russian combat losses as of 12 May, 2022
At Five AM 