The war in Ukraine is now a year old. On Friday, 24 February I watched two webinars discussing the past year, and what the future might look like. Brookings held an event titled, “Meeting the Russia challenge: Lessons from the foreign policy transition from Bush to Obama.” The panelists, including Condoleezza Rice and Fiona Hill, recalled some of Russia’s past actions, and discussed how they shape Russia’s actions, and our own, today. Also posted on the Brookings page is a special section called “Lessons From Ukraine.” The contributors are among our country’s, and the world’s foremost experts on their subjects.
For more thoughts on the war, see also the Council on Foreign Relations current Ukraine page for more analysis. Finally, RAND has posted a blog titled “One Year After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React” where you can read quick reflections on the year past and the future by the experts.
There was also a webinar online at foreignaffairs.com. Again, expert analysis and opinion. Unfortunately they do not seem to provide recorded events for later viewing. Their year in review can be found here (paid subscription may be required for full content.)
My study of hybrid warfare/new generation warfare continues. Today I decided to back up, thousands of years in fact, and think about the beginning of the study or war, and how it shapes the war in Ukraine, and warfare today in general. I narrowed my focus to three points, all stemming from Sun Tzu’s adage, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”
- Study Russian history- from hundreds of years in the past, to Putin’s actions last week, to develop an understanding of his mentality and its shaping of Russian doctrine, his actions and decisions.
- Study Russian doctrine- especially that part of it dedicated to New Generation Warfare (NGW), and pay attention to differences between the doctrine on paper and actions on the ground.
- Take a close look at US military doctrine (which directly affects those of our partners) especially information warfare, assess the shortfalls, and search for indications that they are being remedied.
Putin’s fascination with Russia’s history of imperialism is often noted in articles and talks. It came up in both above events, mentioned by numerous panelists. In summary, Putin may see it as his duty to continue Russia’s imperialist aims. These aims are an integral part of Russian history and life in Russia in general- warfare, hardship, and suffering are part of Russian history and the Russian psyche.
Continuing on with hybrid warfare/NGW, for a concise perspective on NGW and counter-NGW, and where the US Army falls short, a must-read is “Russian New Generation Warfare: Deterring and Winning the Tactical Fight,” by James Derleth, in Military Review, September-October 2020. Pay close attention to the notes at the end- there are important definitions included, not to mention a worthy reading list.
Here is a direct quote from his summary, which urges us out of the past, and into developing robust counter-NGW tactics:
“The dichotomy of war and peace is no longer a useful construct for thinking about national security or tactical operations. We are in a state of competition and conflict that is continuous and dynamic.”
What does continuous conflict in this context mean? In short, it is about continuous and unrelenting information warfare. It is about weaponised information. The availability of information and being connected 24 hours a day is not going away, it is only spreading horizontally to more people, and more remote locations around the globe. And with it the spread of engineered truth- “truth” that fits the writer’s needs, will spread as well. In our post-truth political and informational environment it becomes harder each moment to avoid deception, to sort truth from lies; we have no choice but to continue to try.
Finally, Russian combat losses to date:
Russian combat losses as of 26 February, 2023
More Russian Dead
2 November 2022
As of today there are 73,270 dead Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Instead of posting that graphic, another one caught my eye. Here is a breakdown of Russian officers- Russian “leaders”, killed in battle. Leaders, those who lead their soldiers to be killed. But Russian warfighting doctrine hasn’t changed with the rest of the world. It amounts to this: throw troops into battle, there are plenty more to be sent. Graphic from Ukrainian Telegram channel Ищи своих (“Look For Yours”).
Russian officers killed in Ukraine as of 02 November 2022, with two bonus captures.
The people of Russia, if they want to be free from the tyranny they now suffer…
must arm themselves as best they can (rifles, revolvers, bombs, knives, knuckle-dusters, sticks, rags soaked in kerosene for starting fires, ropes or rope ladders, shovels for building barricades, pyroxylin cartridges, barbed wire, nails [against cavalry], etc., etc.)…. Select leaders or officers… work out signals… calls or whistles so that the comrades recognise one another in a crowd; previously arranged signals in the event of meetings at night, etc., etc…. Get weapons by attacking… a policemen, stray Cossacks… and seizing their arms… fight by getting on to the roofs or upper storeys of houses, etc., and showering stones or pouring boiling water on the troops, etc.
There is more, much more. Curious about the source? A bit of irony here- it is from Lenin’s Tasks of Revolutionary Army Contingents, written in 1905. I suppose it applies just as much today, to try and get out of this mess, as it did when Russians used the tactics to get themselves into it!
On to NATO:
Turkey on Finland and Sweden joining NATO, from the Telegram channel ….
The President of Turkey discussed with the leaders of Finland and Sweden their accession to NATO.
Erdogan demanded from Sweden to take action against organizations that Ankara considers terrorist, in particular regarding the PKK. And also to lift the embargo on the export of weapons imposed on Turkey due to the military operation against the Kurds.
Finnish President Niinistö called the conversation with Erdogan “open and direct”: “As NATO allies, Finland and Turkey will assume obligations to ensure each other’s security, and therefore our relations will become stronger. Finland condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. The close dialogue continues.”
Sounds better than last week when the “news” would have us believe that Turkey was set against their joining.
If you are so inclined, Brookings hosted an event with the ambassadors of Finland and Sweden to the US this week, which is available to watch online- Finland, Sweden, and the future of NATO. The event was very informative, reinforcing for me a lot of what I already understood about the capabilities of both countries. I would stress that both countries are highly prepared to join NATO. Their spending levels meet or exceed the NATO member country requirements. Their armaments, preparedness, and ability to integrate with NATO cannot to be questioned.
One reason for their defensive capabilities is that both countries have a security posture called “total defense.” This means that they are prepared on all levels to defend their countries- from maintaining a strong posture in order to deter any threats, to fighting in defense if necessary, to the creation of resistance movements if areas of the country are occupied. This posture is visible throughout all levels of society- the entire population, business, infrastructure- everyone and everything is a part of the nations’ defenses. Look to Ukraine’s current posture, and success, and you will see total defense in action. Point of note, the Baltic countries and Poland also practice a total defense posture.
Here is an article at Overtdefense.com from June, 2021 outlining Ukraine’s total defense policy, and explaining why it can be so effective.
For more on the current status of NATO in general, and its decline in defensive ability since the end of the Cold War, see the paper by Anthony W. Cordesman and Grace Hwang, The Ukraine War: Preparing for the Longer-term Outcome. It is another very informative piece, which stresses the need for immediate and massive upgrades in NATO as a whole if it is to be a capable force. My takeaway from it: the Ukraine war has given NATO the best reference point it is going to get in relation to accuracy in planning for future threats from Russia. The Ukraine war is a wake-up call for NATO to asses its capabilities and implement changes across the board, immediatley.
Finally, Putin continues to murder his own citizens:
Russian combat losses as of 24 May, 2022
Russian Disinformation for 18 April, 2022; Russian Emigration; Defending Ukraine Together
18 April 2022
Today is another day, a good day for most of us, but not so for the people of Ukraine. Below is a repost from the Telegram Channel The Center for Countering Disinformation. They are posting daily, countering disinformation from many different sources. The takeaway from all of it- beware ANY information that comes out of Russia, no matter where you read it.
Hybrid warfare, the kind the world is currently engaged in, includes digital warfare- manipulation of data, imagery and video, not to mention standard hacking operations. Propaganda and disinformation, and specifically in Russia, the use of conspiracy theories, have long been methods used to manipulate populations. Today the same tactics have instant global reach, swaying huge numbers of people in many countries in a relatively short time.
The CCD staff has compiled a selection of russia’s fakes, manipulations and disinformation bogus stories on April 18, 2022
❌ During a report at a meeting of the Commission to Investigate the Activities of Biolaboratories in Ukraine, Vice Speaker of the state duma of russia Yarova said that russia “discovered the fact of bacteriological terrorism against children in the ORLO in 2020”
🔻Warning: it’s a fake!❌russian media published words taken from the publication of the former President of the Czech Republic V. Klaus for the “iDNES”: “Now everyone is literally radiating love for Ukraine and Ukrainians, but isn’t this love just a screen that hides “hatred for russia”
🔻Warning: it’s a manipulation!❌russian propagandists stated that “the United States has already handed over to Kyiv more than a third of its missile reserves for Javelin anti-tank systems, and Germany and Canada have already exhausted opportunities for military assistance”
🔻Warning: it’s a disinformation!Let’s stop #infoterror!
Russian Emigration
An Aljazeera article posted today cites 300,000 Russians leaving the country as of 16 March, as well as others who were out of the country when the war began who are not returning. The article speaks of the fears of many in Russia- mainly those who have an anti-war and anti-Putin stance- fear of physical retribution, fear of imprisonment, and fear of being “purged“, a word used by Putin himself in a mid-March speech, according to the article. Welcome to Putinist Russia, Stalinist Russia rebranded.
Wondering how you can help?
The links to the right are a place to start. You can help feed Ukrainians, donate to help journalists continue to report, or donate to the Ukrainian Red Cross. Another way to help is to support the purchase of electronics, defensive equipment, training, and rehabilitation of brave Ukrainian fighters. The website Defending Ukraine Together allows you to help. Here is a paragraph outlining their purpose, taken directly from their website:
How Come Back Alive Helps
Our fund supports the Armed Forces of Ukraine through financing purely defence initiatives. Since 2014 we have provided around 1000 thermal imagers and over 250 UAVs. In addition to the material support, we increased technological capabilities of the Army through providing 1,500 tablets with Armor software aimed at stopping the artillery. Come Back Alive also organizes trainings to equip our military with crucial skills. In 2015 we launched trainings for medical workers, artillerists, snipers, minesweepers, and defence analysts. After coming back from the front line, our military members have access to sport rehabilitation and veteran business opportunities.
Our organization does not use funds for purchasing arms. Our mission is limited to supplying technology, trainings, and accouterments to help save lives of Ukrainians and help our warriors defend Ukraine.
Russian Combat Losses- 07 April, 2022 and Casualties During Soviet-Afghan War in 1980’s
7 April 2022
The Soviet-Afghan war of the 1980’s is cited as one of the factors leading to the collapse of the Soviet Union. In that war of 10 years duration, an estimated 15,000 Soviet soldiers died. As of today, day 43 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia has lost close to an estimated 19,000 soldiers. That is in one and a half months!
While the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and their invasion of Ukraine are two very different types of warfare many decades apart, the outcome will be the same. Russia will ultimately lose. And we can only hope that their loss in Ukraine will bring about the collapse of the current regime in Moscow, giving the Russian people another chance at freedom.
Russian combat losses as of 07 April, 2022
At this point my blogs seem to have exhausted themselves… how much more information do any of us need regarding death, destruction, war crimes, and a very uncertain future for all of us? What a world we live in. So for now, some commentary, and more of the day’s news later.
I have asked myself, what is it that holds the world together? My answer- it is the international, rules-based order that we have tried to create and maintain since World War II. But rule of law, justice, democracy, and liberty are all very fragile, forever balanced on a thin line which, should they cross it, may mean their disappearance for a long time. This is nothing new; mankind has always lived on the edge of a precipice, from our hunter-gatherer days to… today. The critical difference today is in the level of suffering and destruction that one person can exact from the world by crossing that line.
How do we fight against such a threat? Simple- by doing exactly what we are doing- decisive action, continued pressure, and the unprecedented response of a fairly united world. But, the world needs to do more- there needs to be more action, more pressure, with more unprecedented responses with every day that dawns.
Psychology will tell us that the use of terror is the most effective way to control a person, a group of people, a country… and a world (this final item, at least in theory.) Terror is being used against us- against Ukraine, and all the people of the world who choose freedom and democracy over tyranny and authoritarianism. Our world has far too many madmen as “leaders”, foremost among them, at present, is of course Russia’s Putin. The level of terror he is responsible for inflicting has truly not been seen since the 1940’s. Our response- the response of the world, has to be commensurate at least, and in truth much stronger and greater to insure order is maintained and to facilitate Putin’s downfall.
But we- the “west,” need help. As I have said in the past, the people of Russia are being held hostage. It is imperative that they stand up to Putin and his followers, do their part in this fight, and become a part of the free world. This will not be easy, there will be suffering and death. But if they do not, all indications are that they will be subject to Stalin, revisited; to a new reign of terror, which means suffering and death. The choice it theirs- stand and fight, or cower and remain oppressed.
In the meantime, as governments continue to pressure Russia, we as individuals must continue to focus on Ukraine, on sending food aid through such organisations as the World Central Kitchen and medical aid through the Ukrainian Red Cross Society to name just two of many options. We must continue pushing corporations and government representatives around the world to keep the pressure on. We also need to make sure we do not forget about other countries that are in precarious positions, such as Moldova, Bosnia, Kosovo, Serbia, Georgia, and Hungary. These are countries where Russian influence must be checked. These are countries that need our support, countries that are helping Ukrainian refugees and have a desire to become part of the EU and NATO. The rest of Europe, the west, the free and democratic nations of the world must help facilitate these desires if the free world, the precarious world we live in, is to prevail.
Here are the latest Russian combat losses from the Telegram channel The Center for Countering Disinformation. Numbers in black show previous day’s totals, red are those added for yesterday. The Ukrainian military is superior in every way to that of Russia, except of course in the sheer numbers of bodies it can throw into the war to be killed. But that is apparently not a concern for Russia.
Russian combat losses as of 04 April, 2022
How to Help
Jim Hicks in his book Lessons From Sarajevo, A War Stories Primer speaks about how war is presented to those not present in it. He addresses the relationship between victim, aggressor, and observer, and how the media so easily inserts the observer into the equation using images, words, and video to elicit a “proper” response, such response dependent on agenda of the outlet of course. Hicks tells us this is nothing new; he cites Walt Whitman’s writing about the Civil War in the United States, and of course there are many earlier examples; we most often label them propaganda. What is new is how quickly we become party to the action, with information shared instantly and constantly, and most importantly the fact that we can take action and not merely maintain the attitude of the observer.
Being an observer, sitting on the sidelines and feeling sorry for the victims is the position most of us take. There are feelings of sympathy, pity, compassion, and shock which perhaps get us to anger, shame, and frustration. We arrive finally at helplessness as a spectator. But we can all become actors. The simplest way is to help feed the survivors of Russian aggression.
The World Central Kitchen posted a video yesterday showing some of the damage in the places they are now reaching inside Ukraine – yes, they are helping to feed people in devastated areas of the country. Donations to the World Central Kitchen help feed Ukrainians who have been under siege for many weeks- this is a positive action that we can all be part of, no matter where we are, or how helpless we feel.
At Five AM 