I wake every morning these days wondering what atrocity Russia has perpetuated as I slept. They seem to come one after the other, so many involving the destruction of cities and the killing of civilians. So much for the rules of war. But it is the (former) Soviet Union we are talking about here, now Russia. Jumping back 30 years or so, the primary concern of the architects of the “new Russia” seemed to have been only how to maintain control over the republics, that is, the Soviet satellites. So much of the debate centered on how to keep Ukraine in check, and how not to lose territory, resources, and Russian “property” that in fact never belonged to them. This specifically included the country of Ukraine itself, Donbas, Crimea, and Sevastapol, the Baltics, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and so on- essentially all the countries (and their resources) that Russia had invaded and occupied and that Russia claimed as their own. Russian imperialism, couched in the reforms of Gorbachev- Glasnost and Perestroika, failed. Yeltsin’s Russian “democracy” failed. The only thing that succeeded was their barbaric, imperialistic march toward their centuries-old goal of geopolitical domination, manifested today in their dictator Putin and Russia’s invasion, once again, of the sovereign state of Ukraine.
Seizure, Forfeiture, U.S. and International Law
Lately I have been reading about the economic side of the war, reparations, and future reconstruction. Recently the Brookings Institution posted a report that provides background arguments on restitution, freezing of assets, asset forfeiture constitutional and international legality, and so on. “Proposals to Seize Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Session 22 of the Congressional Study Group” was posted on the Brookings website on Rebuilding Ukraine Will Be Costly. Here’s How to Make Putin Pay for background, and Philip Zelikow’s A Legal Approach to the Transfer of Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine and Laurence Tribe’s essay $100 Billion. Russia’s Treasure in the U.S. Should Be Turned Against Putin for pro-forfeiture arguments.
My summary: whether or not the forfeiture of Russian assets is legal still remains a point of debate amongst the experts. But to me seizure seems clearly legal- or at least it could be made legal by all that I read. Arguments for forfeiture- under U.S. and international law, are supported by various constitutional lawyers such as Philip Zelikow and Laurence Tribe. Paul Stephan in Seizing Russian Assets gives clear arguments against forfeiture legality, but at the same time indicates that precedents are lacking. Based on arguments from both “sides” forfeiture can be construed as a grey area.
While precedent does not exist, international law may be used to justify the forfeiture of all Russian property now under seizure- numerous references are made to the UN Charter, which Russia selectively abides by. They clearly have violated the Charter. Whether or not the Charter allows for forfeiture, or only seizure, is again in question by the experts.
Another argument for- Russia’s cyberattacks on the U.S. could also point to an “act of aggression” against us, tipping the argument toward forfeiture. This would fall under U.S. law- see specifically the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) and the Trading With the Enemy Act of 1917 (TWEA), Also see the Patriot Act of 2001 and how it may affect both Acts.
Finally, and this is something I found no references to in terms of the forfeiture argument, there is the question of crimes of aggression, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide committed by Russia. When and how do these international crimes affect the legality of forfeiture of Russian assets? Perhaps it is time to set a new precedent while these crimes are being committed, rather than waiting till after the fact to sue for restitution. See Sophie Williams’ articles on DiplomaticCourier.com for some food for thought- UKRAINE’S OPTIONS FOR PROSECUTING RUSSIA, AN INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL IS NOT UKRAINE’S SOLUTION, and LESSONS FROM BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA FOR UKRAINE.
Russian Combat Losses as of 21 January, 2023
How many Russians will Putin send to die?
Russian combat losses as of 21 January, 2023
Ukraine Update- 22 April, 2022- Spreading Conflict, Saber Rattling, Ignorance, and War Crimes
22 April 2022
Another day of war, and all indications are that this is only the beginning. But then I am an eternal skeptic.
According to an MSN.com article from this morning, Putin and his mouthpieces are still talking about a greater war… with Europe and the world. The quote in the article that caught my attention was this one, by television presenter and staunch Putin supporter Vladimir Solovyov:
“When this operation concludes, NATO will have to ask itself: ‘Do we have what we need to defend ourselves? Do we have the people to defend ourselves?’ And there will be no mercy. There will be no mercy,” he said.
I will counter that statement with two numbers- 4,173 and 13,247. The first is the total number of Russian military aircraft (before they began their war of aggression- it is decidedly lower at this point), and the second is the total number of US military aircraft. (Number are from the website GlobalFirepower.com.) Just US military alone. This does not includes NATO or other allies. Russia may want to rethink its belligerence, rhetoric, and rather saber rattling. Reference the NATO airwar in Kosovo and operations in Serbia in teh late 1990’s if there is any doubt. Bottom line- if Russia pushes the world into war, most of the suffering will be on their side.
Next, from the BBC this morning- there is growing evidence for Russian war crimes, specifically in Bucha where the headlines spoke of 50 of the bodies from mass graves there being identified, with another 300-400 yet to be identified. The BBC.com article Mass Graves Near Mariupol talks about war crimes in Mariupol, with mass graves being identified there. A Reuters article from today confirms the growing evidence for war crimes, outlined in an interview with U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) Michelle Bachelet.
Finally, Russian combat losses continue to mount. The question is, how long can Putin continue to send Russian sons, husbands, fathers, and uncles to be killed? And more importantly, how long will the Russian people continue to allow it?
It is time for the Russian people to summon some courage and make change happen in their country. If they need an example of what courage is- perhaps they have forgotten- they only need look towards Ukraine.
Russian combat losses as of 22 April, 2022
I wake every morning these days wondering what madness the day has in store. News from Ukraine is of course at the top, and today there is talk of tens of thousands killed in Mariupol, of a new Russian offensive, and war crimes. Russia seems set on continuing to murder Ukrainians, as well as sending their own citizens to be slaughtered. More war means, if the past weeks are any indication, more war crimes. That is the immediate, and then there is the trickle down- rising prices, food shortages, gas shortages, and a growing sense of fear of tomorrow, world wide. Oh, brave new world, that has such people in it!
Ivo Daalder and James Lindsay, in their recent Foreign Policy article, warn against our focus changing from “restoring Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence to a policy of active regime change in Russia.” My opinion, as always: unrelenting and increasing pressure on Russia, from all sides, in all possible forms (short of all-out third world war.) If this means regime change, and I hope it does, then so be it. It is either now, when the scene is set, or later when it will cost even more. We are only putting off the inevitable. Russia will someday fall; it is only a matter of when.
Some numbers, for perspective- in Russia there are approximately:
- 146,000,000 people
- 850,000 active duty military personnel
- 250,000 national guard troops
- 75,000 FSB “officers”
- 750,000 regular police
There are clearly more citizens than FSB, police, and military. And how many of those paid by the state would, in the end, side with the people? Always a question when a coup might be on the horizon.
In the meantime, Russian combat losses continue to increase.
Russian combat losses as of 11 April, 2022 from the Telegram channel Center for Countering Disinformation.
At this point my blogs seem to have exhausted themselves… how much more information do any of us need regarding death, destruction, war crimes, and a very uncertain future for all of us? What a world we live in. So for now, some commentary, and more of the day’s news later.
I have asked myself, what is it that holds the world together? My answer- it is the international, rules-based order that we have tried to create and maintain since World War II. But rule of law, justice, democracy, and liberty are all very fragile, forever balanced on a thin line which, should they cross it, may mean their disappearance for a long time. This is nothing new; mankind has always lived on the edge of a precipice, from our hunter-gatherer days to… today. The critical difference today is in the level of suffering and destruction that one person can exact from the world by crossing that line.
How do we fight against such a threat? Simple- by doing exactly what we are doing- decisive action, continued pressure, and the unprecedented response of a fairly united world. But, the world needs to do more- there needs to be more action, more pressure, with more unprecedented responses with every day that dawns.
Psychology will tell us that the use of terror is the most effective way to control a person, a group of people, a country… and a world (this final item, at least in theory.) Terror is being used against us- against Ukraine, and all the people of the world who choose freedom and democracy over tyranny and authoritarianism. Our world has far too many madmen as “leaders”, foremost among them, at present, is of course Russia’s Putin. The level of terror he is responsible for inflicting has truly not been seen since the 1940’s. Our response- the response of the world, has to be commensurate at least, and in truth much stronger and greater to insure order is maintained and to facilitate Putin’s downfall.
But we- the “west,” need help. As I have said in the past, the people of Russia are being held hostage. It is imperative that they stand up to Putin and his followers, do their part in this fight, and become a part of the free world. This will not be easy, there will be suffering and death. But if they do not, all indications are that they will be subject to Stalin, revisited; to a new reign of terror, which means suffering and death. The choice it theirs- stand and fight, or cower and remain oppressed.
In the meantime, as governments continue to pressure Russia, we as individuals must continue to focus on Ukraine, on sending food aid through such organisations as the World Central Kitchen and medical aid through the Ukrainian Red Cross Society to name just two of many options. We must continue pushing corporations and government representatives around the world to keep the pressure on. We also need to make sure we do not forget about other countries that are in precarious positions, such as Moldova, Bosnia, Kosovo, Serbia, Georgia, and Hungary. These are countries where Russian influence must be checked. These are countries that need our support, countries that are helping Ukrainian refugees and have a desire to become part of the EU and NATO. The rest of Europe, the west, the free and democratic nations of the world must help facilitate these desires if the free world, the precarious world we live in, is to prevail.
We are all aware at this point, we have all seen the images and footage of the war crimes (link reposted from Telegram channel Інтернет Війська України) committed by Russians in the city of Bucha, Irpin, Gostomel, and elsewhere. What more can I say? Putin and the Russian army are now perpetuating crimes against humanity on the citizens of Ukraine, not to mention killing their own soldiers- over 18,000 so far. The world must take action, and it seems to be, according to the live blog at Aljazeera.
A side note is that demonstrations in Georgia in support of Ukraine clearly show that not everyone in all countries occupied by Russia will sit idly by. Also take note of Bosnia and Kosovo asking for NATO membership out of fear of what the future may hold. My opinion- they should be granted membership, along with Finland and Sweden, immediately. Not too subtle, but then there is nothing subtle in the “tactics” of Russia either.
And let’s not forget, that what is happening in Ukraine is still fresh in the minds of many Bosnians. How quickly we forget the lessons of history.
Russian combat losses as of 05 April 2022- Putin’s murder of his own citizens.
Russia- Genocide, Massacre, War Crimes, Murder
4 April 2022
The following are reposted from the Telegraph channel Інтернет Війська України. Today’s headlines in Europe.
At Five AM 