Thanks to Russia, the world is approaching a food crisis. According to reports, they are shipping captured Ukrainian wheat out of Ukraine and into Russian held lands.

From the Telegram channel Ищи своих, translated using Google Translate:

Only 10 weeks left of world wheat stocks – UN

The depletion of cereals in the bins is a challenge to the entire world community – such a formulation was used by UN food security expert Sarah Menker.

Even if the conflict ends soon, the situation in world markets will not improve without urgent coordinated action by many countries.

All the while rubbish from the Russian propaganda machine continues to be churned out. Here is an interesting read. My take is that it sounds great- the supporters of the nazis should pay reparations to all parties harmed. Of course, since Russia is the aggressing state, and at this point they are the “nazis”, the blame falls solely on them. Also, statements from the next supreme leader, Nikolai Patrushev, are beginning to make the news:

From the Telegram channel the Center for Countering Disinformation:

#CCD_reports: the russian leadership has launched a disinformation campaign on the “right to demand reparation from countries sponsoring Nazism”

🔺patrushev stated that “russia has the right to demand reparations from the countries that sponsored the Nazis in Ukraine, as well as the Kiev regime”
🔺At the same time, the temporarily occupied territories of Luhansk and Donetsk regions “may demand compensation for all material damage over eight years of aggression, and the Ukrainian people deserve reparations from the US and Britain, for support neo-Nazis and providing them with weapons”

❗️Similar theses were voiced by the speaker of the state duma volodin.

❗️The purpose of this disinformation campaign:
1⃣ substitution of the image of the aggressor in the russian-Ukrainian war in the perception of the Western world
2⃣ minimization of sanctions consequences for the russian economy at the expense of Western financial systems.

Another statement, apparently leaked, and of unconfirmed source, shows that Nikolai Patrushev may be preparing for other outcomes to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Here presumably is part of a speech to be given upon upcoming death of Putin during surgery:

It is with tremendous regret that I inform our country of the death of our great leader VVP who died bravely during abdominal surgery. To carry on the immortal mission of the great president is at this time an impossibility; no one will be able to lead the country as he did, not even myself. Therefore I now wish to inform the people of Russia of the plan to liquidate state assets, to end all military and police expenditures, and to diversify the countries’ investments through mergers, sell-offs and autonomy measures.

First we will dissolve the FSB, the police, and the military. This will begin at midnight tonight. All those currently serving in these branches of government will be sent home and given one week’s severance pay.

Next we will free all political prisoners. Alexy Navalny will become head and co-leader of the interim government along with a diverse group of businessmen and citizens.

Finally the country itself will be divided and sold off in parcels. Most of the country, all that bordering other nations such as Poland, Finland, the Baltic states, and Kazakhstan will be sold to those countries. All lands belonging to the country of Ukraine, as well as Georgia and Moldova, which we have plans to occupy and to bomb into submission, will be returned and all Russian presence in those lands will end immediately.

The central part of the country will be sold to Elon Musk for some 40B American dollars, equaling in value his proposed purchase of Twitter. Nothing will change in the central state sell-off once Musk takes over control, other than the Kremlin being turned over to him in its entirety to be used as a summer home and Twitter-Europe headquarters. Also Moscow will be renamed “Muskow”. Otherwise, no changes.

Proceeds from the sale of the country will be paid to Ukraine for rebuilding and as reparations for the destruction of the country, murder of its citizens, and war crimes committed by Russia against them.

Remaining funds, as well as some state assets still held, will be disbursed amongst every single Russian citizen- adults 16 years of age and up will receive a stipend of 100 rubles, 10 packs of Belomorkanal cigarettes, and 3 loaves of bread. Children under the age of 16 will receive 75 rubles and 3 packs of Belomorkanal cigarettes.

Be careful what you believe; anyone can create any storyline they care to.

Back to facts, Russians continue to die at Putin’s whim. There are however entire units that are refusing to fight- search for Donetsk People’s Republic, or DPR army 4th Infantry Battalion of the 107th Regiment. They have apparently refused to fight for a “foreign republic” – the Luhansk People’s Republic, or LPR.

Russian combat losses as of 25 May, 2022

Russian combat losses as of 25 May, 2022

Points of note for today:

Finally, while we would like to believe that all large, multi-national companies are supporting Ukraine and have left Russia, this is not the case. Companies such as Nestle, MARS, Danone, Procter & Gamble, Philip Morris, and PepsiCo to name a few, are still doing business in Russia to one degree or another- still selling products, selling a limited range of products, and paying employees (and therefore taxes to the Russian government).

The following is reposted from the Telegram channel Center for Countering Disinformation, 11-12 May, 2022:

Russia as a terrorist state-

Given the beginning of Western countries’ recognition of Russia as a terrorist state, it is necessary to inform about the consequences of such a decision for it

  • A state sponsor of terrorism is a country that, in accordance with the official position of the US State Department, provides support for acts of international terrorism.
  • 10.05.2022 – Lithuania recognizes Russia as a terrorist country. The Lithuanian Seimas has adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a terrorist state.
  • 10.05.2022 – the US Senate registered a resolution recognizing Russia as a sponsor of terrorism.

Inclusion on such a list entails severe economic and political sanctions, including:

  • ban on arms supplies (export and sale)
  • control over the export of dual-use goods
  • ban on economic aid
  • various financial and other restrictions

Baltic States deny Russian propaganda victory- 

Russian propaganda claims that the campaign launched by the governments of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to recognize Russia as an aggressor country is not supported by the Russian-speaking population of these countries

But the kremlin’s hopes of using Russian-speaking minorities to justify the special operation proved futile.

🔺On April 21, the parliamentarians of Estonia and Latvia recognized the Russian actions as genocide of the Ukrainian people
🔺Latvian opposition Harmony party, which represents the interests of Russian-born voters, unanimously condemned the aggression
🔺Estonian faction of the Centrist Party, based on the Russian-speaking electorate, signed a statement in support of Ukraine
🔺Lithuanian parliamentarians unanimously adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a state that supports and commits terrorism
🔺According to a survey conducted by the Baltic agency SKDS, 68% of Russian-speaking respondents support Ukraine, take part in actions in support of Ukraine and help refugees.

 

Russian combat losses as of 12 May, 2022

Russian combat losses as of 12 May, 2022

 

In recent days I have had visits with various friends, neighbors and acquaintances.  In each case the war in Ukraine has come up, and in each case I was astounded to find out how little everyone understood about the war, the implications of the war for the world, and the history of Russia, to say nothing of their knowledge of modern hybrid warfare, disinformation, propaganda, narrative creation, and the use of history in modern conflicts. One neighbor even asked me what the flag on my hat meant- the blue and yellow Ukrainian flag. And let me say that these are what I would consider professional, successful, and “educated” people.

I suppose not everyone is like me, not everyone has been a student of history, obsessively so at times,  amongst other disciplines, for their entire lives. For context, I began “monitoring” the cold war at age 14, in 1979 with the USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan. I spent 10 years in the U.S. Army, from 1982-1992, with a mission centered on eastern Europe and Warsaw Pact countries. That is where I began.  I like to believe I have some background to support my statements.

Perception management is a phrase which encompasses the modern use of propaganda, disinformation, historical revisionism, and narrative creation- essentially a monumental form of behavioral engineering. Russia is expert in the field. Not that our country is far behind- take the Trump debacle for example- yes, debacle, to put it very kindly- same tactics, same targets, same goals.

Perception management is easily done in our modern society- the internet and social media, along with modern advertising and management concepts are perfect tools.  The need for instantaneous media updates are practically wired into our brains at this point- I suspect most people sleep with their hands instinctively outstretched to their nightstand where their phone sits.  They are ready as their eyes open for the latest bit of news/emotion forced upon them by “news” sources.  And then, to complicate matters, they are stuck in information bubbles, feedback loops where one is only exposed to information conforming to that which they already search for, read, and know about.

News sources– most of what passes for such, especially in the U.S. (Fox, Breitbart, Newsmax, Washington Post, CNN, Apple, MSNBC- any source which corners a person into a box and keeps them there) and decidedly so in authoritarian societies such as Russia where they are all state controlled- and controlled down to the word, are presenting nothing short of modified entertainment,  brief hyperstimulating video and soundbites to capture the average person’s few seconds of attention. They are pandering to base emotions, attempting in the shortest possible time frame to capture attention, elicit a response based on their government/corporate/personal agenda, and then as a bonus to focus attention on a clickable link to sell a product or service. Welcome to “news” in the 21st century.

How to counter it all?  Be informed. Read as many news sources as you can. Find the same report across a number of channels and platforms, from extreme left to extreme right if you have the time and inclination.  Then arrive at your own conclusions based on discretion and critical thinking.  For reference, here are some of the sources I regularly turn to, and use to cross-check and cross-reference a report that I find questionable: Ukrinform (Ukrainian news source), BBC, Aljazeera, Brookings Institute, Foreign Affairs, Diplomatic Courier, RFE/RL, TOLO (Afghan news service), Balkan Insight, the Economist, and Financial Times. If you search any of these sources on a site such as mediabias/factcheck.com you will find them in the center of the scale, with high marks for accurate and unbiased reporting.

As a final note- and then my rant for the day will end- if we are not informed, we will fall. To paraphrase Ray Bradbury from an interview in the 40th anniversary edition of Fahrenheit 451 in my library, if the world collapsed, the only buildings we would need to survive are a hospital to treat the injured, and a library where all knowledge we need to rebuild is held.  Knowledge is power, and ignorance will be our death.

Ignorance  continues to lead to the death of many, many Russian sons, fathers, brothers, and uncles:

 

Russian combat losses as of 04 May 2022

Russian combat losses as of 04 May 2022- continuing to grow.

I have mentioned Masha Gessen’s book, The Future is History, in a previous post.  I highly recommend the book if you want to understand modern Russia, and how the current Russian mafia state grew out of the post-communist USSR. Gessen’s book will give you a clear and disturbing understanding of what went on in the background, and how Russia arrived in the present day.

Digging deeper, the word “hypernormalisation” turns up. From the Wikipedia page outlining the movie of the same name, here is the first paragraph of explanation:

The word hypernormalization was coined by Alexei Yurchak, a professor of anthropology who was born in Leningrad and later went to teach in the United States. He introduced the word in his book Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More: The Last Soviet Generation (2006), which describes paradoxes of Soviet life during the 1970s and 1980s.[3][4] He says that everyone in the Soviet Union knew the system was failing, but no one could imagine an alternative to the status quo, and politicians and citizens alike were resigned to maintaining the pretense of a functioning society.[5] Over time, this delusion became a self-fulfilling prophecy and the fakeness was accepted by everyone as real, an effect that Yurchak termed hypernormalisation.[6]

The bold italics are my own, to emphasise in less than two sentences where the new Russia comes from.  It is a creation, a societal delusion in the 1970’s and 1980’s that was enforced by a feat of advertising and theatre from the 1990’s onward; it is a monumental hoax perpetrated on 150 million people. (And not just on Russia- to be fair we cannot leave out the rest of the world. Having survived Trump’s attempt at creating the same in the U.S.- this time- we are not very far off. The question is, can we survive it again?) As a side note, the documentary Hypernormalisation, begins in New York in 1975, with Donald Trump.

If you have a free two hours, you can watch the BBC documentary on youtube here: Hypernormalisation by Adam Curtis.

For more on one of the minds behind the creation of Putin, and the latest iteration of the Russian delusion, you can read about Vladislav Surkov on wikipedia. To summarise, he (probably) served on the GRU intelligence staff, studied theatre direction, and worked in advertising and public relations for some very influential Russians.  He is credited with creating Putin’s image, he is an expert at doublespeak, and seems to have perfected the mobile truth that characterises the Russia of the past 60 years or so.

A prime example, Surkov is one of those who claims “there is no Ukraine,” and backs it up with fiction, lies, conspiracies, and historical revision, feeding it to a gullible, depressed, confused, and beaten Russian populace.  And thus we arrive at the present day.

A final note on this post- please do not take any of this as the gospel truth. It is information that is available on the internet. Hypernormalisation, the documentary… borders on the conspiratorial… crosses the line in fact, here and there. Take everything with a grain of salt, and do your own digging. My personal philosophy on information I receive- even that which I see with my own eyes- vacillates between “trust but verify” and “never trust anyone.”  Proceed with caution.

 

Today on Telegram channel Ищи своих there is a post about the questionable health of Putin.

Putin looking less than healthy.

Vladimir Putin looking less than healthy; there was not date or location given for the photograph.

Translation of text from post via Google Translate:

In the mountains of Sochi, the 37-year-old general director of the Krasnaya Polyana resort Andrei Krukovsky died recently – he fell off the mountain path.

Over time, there were rumors that not everything is so simple. Political figure Mark Feigin suggested that the deceased could know too much about the state of health of Vladimir Putin, about visits to Krasnaya Polyana by oncologists and other doctors.

The day before, the British tabloid The Sun wrote that Putin is preparing for surgery – amid reports that he is battling abdominal cancer.

And during his absence, the country will be led by Nikolai Patrushev.

About Nikolai Patrushev from Wikipedia:

Nikolai Platonovich Patrushev is a Russian politician, security officer and intelligence officer who has served as
the secretary of the Security Council of Russia since 2008. Previously, he served as the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) from 1999 to 2008 (replacing Putin as director… and now replacing Putin as authoritarian leader?) Patrushev belongs to the siloviki (a politician who came into politics from the security, military, or similar services) of president Vladimir Putin’s inner circle.

And finally, from the Telegram channel The Center for Countering Disinformation:

Russia intimidates Finland because of its intention to apply for NATO membership

Finland is due to decide to apply to NATO on 12 May. It was reported by the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti, citing anonymous sources in the government.
In response, russian politicians have called Finland a fascist state and claim that:
🔺Finland and Sweden automatically switch to moscow’s opponents
🔺The state duma is ready to terminate the lease agreement for the Saimaa Canal, one of the most important transport arteries
🔺russia will begin a demonstrative strengthening of the ground forces and air defense forces on the border with Finland, as well as the fleet in the Gulf of Finland
🔺russian hackers will disrupt the Finnish banking system

Finland is already a partner of the North Atlantic Alliance, joining NATO will provide it with security guarantees received by full members of the organization

With the start of the war in Ukraine, the level of support for Finnish citizens to join NATO has increased from 20% to 70%.

Russia is desperate. Good luck to them sending “troops” to the border of Finland.  Who will be left to send?  “Putin youth”, 12-18 year old children?  Their forces, equipment, and morale are being decimated.  Soon the people of Russia will have had enough. We had all better hope and pray that this happens before that last moment of desperation, before the nuclear button is pushed.

In the meantime, please continue supporting the brave people of Ukraine.  Pass on information, and if you can, please  donate through one of the links at the top of this page.

The world is on the right track. Support for Ukraine is absolutely necessary, and it is happening. Here is an update from today from the Telegram channel Ищи своих (translated in Google translate from Ukrainian.)

US President Joe Biden announced the allocation of military assistance to Ukraine for another $800 million.

The new deliveries will include heavy weapons, dozens of howitzers, tactical drones and 144,000 rounds of ammunition.

Biden also announced another $500 million in direct economic assistance to the Ukrainian government.

In addition, the United States expanded sanctions against Russia, banning Russian ships from entering American ports

Here is today’s disinformation check from the Telegram channel Center for Countering Disinformation.

The CCD staff has compiled a selection of russia’s fakes, manipulations and disinformation bogus stories as of the morning of April 21, 2022

❌The russian ministry of defense warned that “Ukrainian Mykolayiv may find itself in the zone of an epidemiological catastrophe: against the background of the difficult humanitarian situation public utilities are not working there and the central water supply has been cut off”
🔻Warning: it’s a fake!

❌Representatives of the russian embassy in Washington said that “US sanctions are becoming increasingly absurd and speak of Washington’s inability to bend russia to its will”
🔻Warning: it’s a manipulation!

❌russian media with reference to the odious Kadyrov reported that Mariupol plant Azovstal “on Thursday will be completely under the control of the russian armed forces”. It was also added that “militants who have settled in the metallurgical plant can still lay down their arms and surrender in the morning”
🔻Warning: it’s a manipulation!

Today is another day, a good day for most of us, but not so for the people of Ukraine. Below is a repost from the Telegram Channel  The Center for Countering Disinformation. They are posting daily, countering disinformation from many different sources. The takeaway from all of it- beware ANY information that comes out of Russia, no matter where you read it.

Hybrid warfare, the kind the world is currently engaged in, includes digital warfare- manipulation of data, imagery and video, not to mention standard hacking operations. Propaganda and disinformation, and specifically in Russia, the use of conspiracy theories, have long been methods used to manipulate populations. Today the same tactics have instant global reach, swaying huge numbers of people in many countries in a relatively short time.

The CCD staff has compiled a selection of russia’s fakes, manipulations and disinformation bogus stories on April 18, 2022

❌ During a report at a meeting of the Commission to Investigate the Activities of Biolaboratories in Ukraine, Vice Speaker of the state duma of russia Yarova said that russia “discovered the fact of bacteriological terrorism against children in the ORLO in 2020”
🔻Warning: it’s a fake!

❌russian media published words taken from the publication of the former President of the Czech Republic V. Klaus for the “iDNES”: “Now everyone is literally radiating love for Ukraine and Ukrainians, but isn’t this love just a screen that hides “hatred for russia”
🔻Warning: it’s a manipulation!

❌russian propagandists stated that “the United States has already handed over to Kyiv more than a third of its missile reserves for Javelin anti-tank systems, and Germany and Canada have already exhausted opportunities for military assistance”
🔻Warning: it’s a disinformation!

Let’s stop #infoterror!

Russian Emigration
An Aljazeera article posted today cites 300,000 Russians leaving the country as of 16 March, as well as others who were out of the country when the war began who are not returning. The article speaks of the fears of many in Russia- mainly those who have an anti-war and anti-Putin stance- fear of physical retribution, fear of imprisonment, and fear of being “purged“, a word used by Putin himself in a mid-March speech, according to the article. Welcome to Putinist Russia, Stalinist Russia rebranded.

Wondering how you can help?

The links to the right are a place to start. You can help feed Ukrainians, donate to help journalists continue to report, or donate to the Ukrainian Red Cross. Another way to help is to support the purchase of electronics, defensive equipment, training, and rehabilitation of brave Ukrainian fighters. The website Defending Ukraine Together allows you to help.  Here is a paragraph outlining their purpose, taken directly from their website:

How Come Back Alive Helps

Our fund supports the Armed Forces of Ukraine through financing purely defence initiatives. Since 2014 we have provided around 1000 thermal imagers and over 250 UAVs. In addition to the material support, we increased technological capabilities of the Army through providing 1,500 tablets with Armor software aimed at stopping the artillery. Come Back Alive also organizes trainings to equip our military with crucial skills. In 2015 we launched trainings for medical workers, artillerists, snipers, minesweepers, and defence analysts. After coming back from the front line, our military members have access to sport rehabilitation and veteran business opportunities.

Our organization does not use funds for purchasing arms. Our mission is limited to supplying technology, trainings, and accouterments to help save lives of Ukrainians and help our warriors defend Ukraine.

As Russian combat losses continue to mount, there are claims that Ukrainian marines have surrendered, and of torture of captured Russian soldiers. Beware of disinformation!  These claims may be a sign of desperation on the part of Russia. When all other tactics of the aggressor fail, that is, when wholesale destruction of cities and the murder of citizens no longer seems to be working, Russia can always fall back on using the rules of war, and rule of law to get attention by displacing blame from the aggressor to the victim.

Beware any information coming out of Russia, no matter what the source!

 

Russian combat losses as of 13 April, 2022

Russian combat losses as of 13 April, 2022

You can help the people of Ukraine by donating to World Central Kitchen.  They were helping feed victims of Russian aggression in Kramatorsk during the Russian missile attack. You can see tweets and a video from Kramatorsk here.

Russia seems to be backing off with its rhetoric, at least in the news sources I view. This tells me that Putin may be listening to those from his inner circle, something that is clearly a difficult prospect for paranoid, isolated dictators. The question is why? Is he threatened by the unity of the rest of the world against his criminal intentions? Is it because internal dissent is increasing and his rhetoric is backfiring internally? Maybe he is realising his tenuous situation and where his country is headed? Or perhaps he overstepped strategically, revealed to much information and all of these options are still on the table? Just guesses on my part.

Examples of Putin’s ranting from a few weeks back that are no longer at the top of the headlines:

  • reports about nuclear capabilities
  • talk of invading Poland, other NATO countries
  • talk of retaliation “like the world has never known”
  • the “de-nazification” of Ukraine

While we do not know precisely what is happening in Russia, we have a fair idea. There are clearly those who oppose the war- there is dissent. There is also endless disinformation that confuses Russians as well as westerners. What we must remember is this- nothing has changed in this geographic region. The former Soviet Union is alive and well, albeit rebranded, still controlling the media, manipulating its people through fear, threat of violence, terror, and isolation. Many Russians have not recovered from the Soviet era; they are still living under a dark, hopeless, depressing authoritarian state. Don’t be fooled by thinking otherwise.

Our only hope is that the younger generations especially, those who have felt freedom over the last 30 years, refuse to give it up. The only answer for a free Russia, and a free world, is for the removal of its current dictator and the dismantling, finally, of the Russian mafia state allowing the people of Russia to actually choose their path.

Conspiracy theories run rampant in Russia. They are part of Russian society, deeply entrenched throughout at least much of the 20th century onward, and from what I can gather, are readily consumed by the populace. The biggest creator and perpetuator of conspiracy theories  is the Russian government… no surprise there. One only needs to open any of the government controlled  “news” sites and this is perfectly clear, especially right now. The line between conspiracy theories, “fake news”- a term which I loathe, and consider engineered to deflate the only word which should be used in this case- LIES, has become blurred in Russian society, and of course in our own, as well as in most countries across the globe.

One thing that struck me recently, while wading through Masha Gessen’s The Future is History, is that the “pedophile lobby” as Gessen calls it, features very prominently in Russian conspiracy theories.  (I say “wading” only because Gessen’s book contains so much information, so many facts to follow up on, so many books to add to my reading list, and the content itself is so unbelievable and disturbing- it takes effort and focus to digest it all. To clarify, if you want to develop an understanding for the last 30 years of Russian history, the power vacuum that developed, and the society’s return to authoritarian rule, you must read this book!)

Reading about the perpetuation of the myth of the “pedophile lobby” in dissident circles in Russia, and how at certain times it permeated and took over so much of life there, brought me to theorise on the origins of QAnon, our own “pedophile pizza cult”, and how and why it captivates and captures so many.

First, the parallel evolution of the underground, subversive, and criminal pedophile cults in Russia and the U.S. bear far too much resemblance to be coincidence. The timing of their emergence is curious as well. Between 2005-2010, according to Gessen, Russia saw a surge in the fear of the pedophile lobby by the government and many government funded organisations, thereby perpetuating the same in the general populace, with the government actively promoting the disinformation and fear, and as a result legitimising violence against people who were deemed part of it. According to Gessen, violence could be arbitrary, directed at anyone who was suspect or different (think of the literary examples of Miller’s The Crucible, or It Can’t Happen Here by Sinclair Lewis). According to Gessen dissidents, activists, and gay men and lesbians were primary targets.

In the U.S., extremist, conservative, and right wing “news outlets” began promoting the “pedophile pizza cult” around 2014, adding that it centered on government officials and Washington D.C. It certainly came into the forefront in 2016 during the election campaign when used against Hillary Clinton. Coincidence… or easily managed subversion? It worked in Russia. Russia (that is, Putin) was very much interested in the U.S. presidential race, so why not force it into a U.S. market? Gullible is gullible, no matter what country or continent.

What does it all boil down to? Simply this- disinformation is used to divide people against each other so they are distracted from the corruption, thievery, lies, and criminal acts of governments. Division allows governments to conquer. The pedophile cults of Russia and the U.S. are nothing more than disinformation. Ocham’s razor tells us to look for the simplest reason behind an occurrence- there being not a shred of verifiable evidence on either side of the ocean, the pedophile cults become nothing more than a work of fiction created by the state. In this case Russian disinformation which overtook that country so easily reformulated and fed to a hungry American audience where it was swallowed without the slightest regard to its source or the verity of its content.

To use a familiar family adage, conventional wisdom holds that one should not go grocery shopping while hungry.  These days when all of us force-fed our news, when we are trapped in feedback loops and information bubbles, I would add that we should stay away from listening to, watching, or reading any news when we are looking for answers to the instability and insanity of today’s world. We just might find what we are looking for.