I wake every morning these days wondering what madness the day has in store. News from Ukraine is of course at the top, and today there is talk of tens of thousands killed in Mariupol, of a new Russian offensive, and war crimes. Russia seems set on continuing to murder Ukrainians, as well as sending their own citizens to be slaughtered. More war means, if the past weeks are any indication, more war crimes. That is the immediate, and then there is the trickle down- rising prices, food shortages, gas shortages, and a growing sense of fear of tomorrow, world wide. Oh, brave new world, that has such people in it!
Ivo Daalder and James Lindsay, in their recent Foreign Policy article, warn against our focus changing from “restoring Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence to a policy of active regime change in Russia.” My opinion, as always: unrelenting and increasing pressure on Russia, from all sides, in all possible forms (short of all-out third world war.) If this means regime change, and I hope it does, then so be it. It is either now, when the scene is set, or later when it will cost even more. We are only putting off the inevitable. Russia will someday fall; it is only a matter of when.
Some numbers, for perspective- in Russia there are approximately:
- 146,000,000 people
- 850,000 active duty military personnel
- 250,000 national guard troops
- 75,000 FSB “officers”
- 750,000 regular police
There are clearly more citizens than FSB, police, and military. And how many of those paid by the state would, in the end, side with the people? Always a question when a coup might be on the horizon.
In the meantime, Russian combat losses continue to increase.
Russian combat losses as of 11 April, 2022 from the Telegram channel Center for Countering Disinformation.
At Five AM 