Ukraine Updates 08 January, 2023- Recommended Reading
8 January 2023
The war in Ukraine continues, with unflagging bravery and fortitude on the part of the defenders, and the support of the free world. This is the way it should remain, until the end- that being Russia’s surrender, return of all Ukrainian territory, and withdrawal. We- the US, Europe, NATO, our allies, should not waver in our support. We should increase our physical support, and increase our “non-kinetic” pressures against the Russian mafia state (sanctions, denial of services, aid to states threatened by Russia). Now, with my personal opinions out of the way, on to some of the sources of data that help shape those opinions.
A recent RAND paper, from 20 December, 2022, Responding to a Limited Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War discusses possible scenarios that a limited attack against NATO or European targets by Russia might entail, what might provoke such an attack, and the range of response and retaliation options that we have. The RAND paper notes the need for the US, NATO, and Europe to have this response matrix ready now in the event that Russia initiates such an attack, and notes that increasing desperation on their part might increase the possibility an attack occurring.
From the Diplomatic Courier from 14 December, 2022- RUSSIA RISKS LOSING ARMENIA AS AN ALLY– Russia further isolates itself from its neighbor and CTSO ally through inaction regarding the Azerbaijan- Armenia conflict. Armenia seeks help from France on resolving the conflict, and close ties to Europe and the US in its choice to promote freedom and democracy in the country.
From Ukrinform, from 07 January, 2023- “Belarus is being occupied by military forces that are stationed at training grounds, most likely for a long time. And there will be no future for Belarus as an independent country,” say Oleksandr Pavliuk, Commander of Kyiv Defense Forces. The story is here- Belarus has no future as independent country- Kyiv Defense Commander
If you have the time or inclination, some light reading- Russian ‘Hybrid Warfare’ and the Annexation of Crimea; The Modern Application of Soviet Political Warfare by Kent DeBenedictis, is available at Bloomsbury.com.
Another work that will prove informative is Putin’s Preventive Counter-Revolution; Post-Soviet Authoritarianism and the Spectre of Velvet Revolution, By Robert Horvath. It was published in 2014 and is available at Routledge.com. I have both books on order, and would like to point out that I am in no way affiliated with or do I receive any remuneration from any of the publishers or sources I cite.
From ISW, update on the war for 07 January, 2023.
Finally, Russian combat losses continue to mount:
Russian combat losses as of 08 January, 2023
Putin Visits Belarus, Zubok’s “Collapse”, Combat Losses
20 December 2022
In the news today, from Ukrinform, Canada announces it will seize, and pursue the forfeiture of $26M belonging to the oligarch Abramovich. Canada is the first G7 country to pursue such a measure, and if approved, the assets will be given to Ukraine as part of their reconstruction compensation. Then they would only be short about about $999,974,000,000 according to recent estimates.
From the same site, there are numerous references to the meeting of Putin and Lukashenko in Belarus yesterday. US and German monitors- and I am sure many other countries- are following the developments, but all indications from the Belarussian government are that the country “wants no part in Putin’s war”. With that said, Russia does have airfields in Belarus cleared for their use, has troops in the country, and has suggested working together against US and western sanctions. There is also a report on the visit on Aljazeera.
I have just started reading Vladislav Zubok’s history of the Soviet collapse, aptly named “Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union.” The overall history is well know to everyone, or should be. The more unknown aspects such as the infighting, paranoia, ideological attacks, as well as the economic aspects and countless attempts at reform, creation of new governments, and in the end the chances that were had and lost because of fear, greed, and ignorance are disturbing. I can only summarise so much of the 500 pages, and suggest it be added to the reading list of anyone who wants to understand the historic and enduring disfunctionality of Russia/the USSR/the Russian Federation. You can purchase Zubok’s Collapse at Yale University Press. Here is a book review from the London School of Economics.
There is one quote from the book that I must include. From the Russian philosopher Alexander Zinoviev, exiled from the USSR in the 1970’s, “You can create one thousand political parties in the Soviet Union, and all of them would degenerate into political mafias.” That fairly sums up Russia, no matter what it calls itself.
Russian combat losses as of today, from Ukrinform. The 100,000 deaths threshold is just a day or two away:
Russian combat losses as of 20 December, 2022
On 05 December, 2022 the Brookings Institute held an online event titled Nonstate armed actors in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Syria. It is archived and available to watch by clicking the link. I highly recommend taking the hour and a half to listen to it, no only for the updated information from the Brookings panel on conditions in Iraq, Libya, Yemen and Syria, but also for updates on the continued involvement of Russia and Iran, amongst others, in these and other countries.
Insuring instability by supporting rebels, insurgents, governments, their own mercenary force (Wagner), or some fictional specter in these countries and all around the world is an integral part of Russia’s active, proxy, and hybrid war against… yes, the free world. It has come down to that again.
Russia must bear responsibility for its crimes.
For more background on why no “peace” can be negotiated with Russia, from the Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, see the article on the Foreign Affairs website, No Peace on Putin’s Terms: Why Russia Must Be Pushed Out of Ukraine. The article is adapted from a speech given in November, 2022, and reiterates the concerns I have been noting all along, but from the perspective of a country formerly under Soviet rule. If you do not have access the Foreign Affairs website, you can also find the article here. By the way, a plug here for Foreign Affairs magazine (I receive no money or any sort of backing from them)- a subscription to the magazine which includes 6 annual print issues and unlimited online access is only $45.95 USD per year. That is an unbeatable value for the quality and amount of information they publish.
Finally for today, on Aljazeera there is an article and infographic that shows how much and where support for Ukraine is coming from. In terms of overall dollars, the US clearly leads. But further down the page the article notes that in terms of GDP, the US contributes .23 percent, whereas Estonia as a percentage of its GDP contributes 1.1 percent. Latvia is just below Estonia with 0.93 percent, Poland with 0.5 percent and Lithuania 0.46 percent of their GDP.
More Russian Dead
2 November 2022
As of today there are 73,270 dead Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Instead of posting that graphic, another one caught my eye. Here is a breakdown of Russian officers- Russian “leaders”, killed in battle. Leaders, those who lead their soldiers to be killed. But Russian warfighting doctrine hasn’t changed with the rest of the world. It amounts to this: throw troops into battle, there are plenty more to be sent. Graphic from Ukrainian Telegram channel Ищи своих (“Look For Yours”).
Russian officers killed in Ukraine as of 02 November 2022, with two bonus captures.
I have never been one to sleep late, and on many summer days I start my day long before the sun is up – most days around 4 or 5 a.m. Not a bad thing, as I occasionally catch radio programs that I might otherwise miss. Saturday morning on my “local” radio station, KBYU, I listened to a Top of Mind show called Humanitarian Aid: How to Help Without Doing Harm. The opening part of the show is about the organisation called To Ukraine With Love. They are located in Oregon, and have fundraised, purchased, and organised the delivery of everything from body armor to baby food to Ukraine. This organisation definitely gets my vote as a charity doing good work. If you are thinking about donating to Ukraine, visit their site and see what they are doing.
The show goes on to more interviews- one segment with Pippa Biddle, author of the book “Ours to Explore: Privilege, Power and the Paradox of Voluntourism.” The book is about volunteering and “voluntourism” and their impacts, and brings up a couple of important questions: how much good is the effort truly doing, and why are we doing it- to help or to make ourselves feel good? Good questions, and the answer seems to be that volunteering close to home is best, if time is what you can give. In the end, donating money is always the best for all charities- it allows them to purchase exactly what they need, exactly when it is most needed.
There is also a guest from the University of Pennsylvania, Kat Rosqueta, from the Center for High Impact Philanthropy. Their mission is to make sure donations “make the greatest possible difference in the lives of others,” that, from their “what we do” page.
Finally, Guidestar is a website where you can research non-profits and charities before you donate. Another site I have used for this is Charity Navigator.
All of these sites can help a person negotiate the sometimes confusing realm of making donations to charity, and perhaps volunteering if one has the time. For now, if you can, every dollar sent to Ukraine will help them. My top donation list is in the upper right of this page- click a link, do some reading, and give what you can.
In the meantime, the war goes on. There are some 40,000 Russian soldiers dead at this point. The coming offensive will increase that number. Putin continues to murder Ukrainian citizens, send Russia’s own soldiers to their death, and lie- every word coming out of Russia, as far as I can tell is a lie. Remember that- lies, deceit, propaganda, disinformation- Russia.
So much has happened during this last month- I have been disappearing into the desert alone for long periods, necessary for my sanity.
As of today some 35,600 Russian soldiers have been murdered by the Russian madman that claims to be the leader of that country. Way to go Putin, digging your own grave.
This week’s news alone holds so much positive information. The Ukrainians continue to defend, hold out, regain, and defeat the Russian army. The Russians continue to act in desperation, using soviet-era stock to try and win an unwinnable war, and preparing more of their young people to die, even as their financial reserves dwindle and so much of the world stands against them. The US is sending more money and weapons to Ukraine, as are other countries. Support for the defenders of Ukraine grows, as more and more people realise that this is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a war between Russia and Europe, if not between Russia and the entire free world.
Turkey has agreed to NATO membership of Finland and Sweden- this is huge. Turkey is certainly a country to watch, a wild card in the mix if you will. But this ups their status tremendously. We will see how Erdogan’s posturing over the last month or so pays off for his image. So far it looks like he played his hand well.
Ukrainian military Bayraktar TB2 drones
I have noticed a lot of references to the Cold War, and our return to the Cold War. I think it should be very clear at this point that what we face will be nothing like the Cold War. We are so far removed from those days, and we will never return there. The current situation is much worse for many more countries and parts of the world. Globalisation has made us all far more dependent on each other than we were even 30 years ago when the Cold War ended. Resources and products can come from the other side of the world, and any disruption is felt like never before. That combined with population increases, climate change, world fiscal instability, the pandemic exacerbating all of it, and most important of all is the fact that nuclear weapons abound with many of them held by less than responsible nations- especially Russia. All of this puts us in a place we have never been, in a completely new paradigm.
A reminder too, that Ukraine and Russia should not be our primary focus. We must not forget about other eastern European countries that are ripe for the picking so to speak. Keep a close eye on Hungary, Serbia (as well as Bosnia and Republika Srbska), Belarus, and the other non-NATO or non-EU countries that Russia or their satellites have had an eye on. These countries, if Putin had his way, would be the next to fall. They are in no way out of danger.
The people of Russia, if they want to be free from the tyranny they now suffer…
must arm themselves as best they can (rifles, revolvers, bombs, knives, knuckle-dusters, sticks, rags soaked in kerosene for starting fires, ropes or rope ladders, shovels for building barricades, pyroxylin cartridges, barbed wire, nails [against cavalry], etc., etc.)…. Select leaders or officers… work out signals… calls or whistles so that the comrades recognise one another in a crowd; previously arranged signals in the event of meetings at night, etc., etc…. Get weapons by attacking… a policemen, stray Cossacks… and seizing their arms… fight by getting on to the roofs or upper storeys of houses, etc., and showering stones or pouring boiling water on the troops, etc.
There is more, much more. Curious about the source? A bit of irony here- it is from Lenin’s Tasks of Revolutionary Army Contingents, written in 1905. I suppose it applies just as much today, to try and get out of this mess, as it did when Russians used the tactics to get themselves into it!
On to NATO:
Turkey on Finland and Sweden joining NATO, from the Telegram channel ….
The President of Turkey discussed with the leaders of Finland and Sweden their accession to NATO.
Erdogan demanded from Sweden to take action against organizations that Ankara considers terrorist, in particular regarding the PKK. And also to lift the embargo on the export of weapons imposed on Turkey due to the military operation against the Kurds.
Finnish President Niinistö called the conversation with Erdogan “open and direct”: “As NATO allies, Finland and Turkey will assume obligations to ensure each other’s security, and therefore our relations will become stronger. Finland condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. The close dialogue continues.”
Sounds better than last week when the “news” would have us believe that Turkey was set against their joining.
If you are so inclined, Brookings hosted an event with the ambassadors of Finland and Sweden to the US this week, which is available to watch online- Finland, Sweden, and the future of NATO. The event was very informative, reinforcing for me a lot of what I already understood about the capabilities of both countries. I would stress that both countries are highly prepared to join NATO. Their spending levels meet or exceed the NATO member country requirements. Their armaments, preparedness, and ability to integrate with NATO cannot to be questioned.
One reason for their defensive capabilities is that both countries have a security posture called “total defense.” This means that they are prepared on all levels to defend their countries- from maintaining a strong posture in order to deter any threats, to fighting in defense if necessary, to the creation of resistance movements if areas of the country are occupied. This posture is visible throughout all levels of society- the entire population, business, infrastructure- everyone and everything is a part of the nations’ defenses. Look to Ukraine’s current posture, and success, and you will see total defense in action. Point of note, the Baltic countries and Poland also practice a total defense posture.
Here is an article at Overtdefense.com from June, 2021 outlining Ukraine’s total defense policy, and explaining why it can be so effective.
For more on the current status of NATO in general, and its decline in defensive ability since the end of the Cold War, see the paper by Anthony W. Cordesman and Grace Hwang, The Ukraine War: Preparing for the Longer-term Outcome. It is another very informative piece, which stresses the need for immediate and massive upgrades in NATO as a whole if it is to be a capable force. My takeaway from it: the Ukraine war has given NATO the best reference point it is going to get in relation to accuracy in planning for future threats from Russia. The Ukraine war is a wake-up call for NATO to asses its capabilities and implement changes across the board, immediatley.
Finally, Putin continues to murder his own citizens:
Russian combat losses as of 24 May, 2022
“Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” The words of Winston Churchill, which need to be considered to fully understand the predicament the world is in today, the possible futures before us, and the requirements of western nations, emerging democracies, and authoritarian regimes alike. We have essentially two choices: to work towards equity, justice, democracy, freedom, and liberty. Or to work towards the opposite, the path of the pathological, authoritarian, megalomaniac “leading” Russia. Remember, there has never been a perfect political system, just as there has never been peace. Both are idealised parts of a long dreamt of world, that at best is what we strive for, work towards, never lose hope of attaining. At worst they are, and will remain, fantasies, illusions, and far-off dreams.
Another quote summarises the Russian state. From Foreign Affairs magazine May/June 2022 issue, in the article Putin Unbound by Daniel Treisman,
“Russia is a brutally repressive police state run by a small group of hard-liners who have imposed ever-harsher policies both at home and abroad.”
Governments are at work, militaries are at work, Finland and Sweden have made their decisions, but what can the rest of us do? The simplest thing that anyone can do is to donate to help Ukraine. See the links in the upper right of this post. Not everyone can do that, so next is to fight against disinformation and help spread the truth- pass on verified information to as many people as possible within your networks. This is not just a battle against disinformation being fought against Russia- it has just as many proponents worldwide, and within our own country. (What a sad state our democracy has fallen to!) Finally, contact your representatives and let them know we need to do more for Ukraine- more food, medicine, weapons, more sanctions against Russia, and more support for NATO and Europe.
In an article in the Wall Street Journal from last weekend, Putin Drives Finland Into NATO’s Arms, there is a quote by a 78-year-old amateur historian that stands out,
What Stalin forgot, and what Putin is forgetting now, is that if you fight for your own home, it makes the difference.
The reference here is to the Winter War of 1939-1940 where Finnish fighters did the same to Russian forces as Ukrainians are doing now- cutting them off, destroying their morale, destroying their forces, and eventually driving them out. The people of Finland were brave in 1939-1940, as they were last week in joining NATO. The people of Ukraine are brave. They are standing up for the world and they deserve our help.
The same article outlines the very prudent preparations that Finland has been making on their own over many, many years. These range from defense spending almost meeting NATO requirements, to upgrading and training with equipment that will integrate immediately with that used by NATO, to building a series of underground tunnels and shelters that will house up to 70% of the population, while stockpiling food, fuel and medicine. Finland sets an example for all other countries to follow.
Since this seems to be a post full of quotes, I will end with one more. “Budschego net“- Russian for “no future.” This I learned from Masha Gessen’s similarly titled book, The Future is History. It is a commonly held and expressed sentiment in the… former Soviet Union, or today’s Russia, and says it all.
If by some stretch of the imagination someone in Russia reads this post, know that the future has not been cancelled entirely. The future is up to you. Be brave like the people of Ukraine and stand up to your government. You may suffer, and you may die. But Russians will continue to die every day until they stand together against their own tyranny.
Russian combat losses as of 20 May 2022
The Russian Police State, World Central Kitchen, Russian Losses Updated, and Is the West Doing Enough?
16 May 2022
My comments for the day begin thus: Russians are falling perfectly into step with the oppressive, authoritarian state, and state sanctioned lies. The propaganda fed to them by the brutal, murderous state is not questioned; the subjects take it as gospel truth, as good Soviet (Putinist) citizens should. The work of the KGB (FSB) makes sure that fear rules that country; anyone speaking out in any way is subject to arrest as a foreign agent, with 15 years ahead of them. If this is not history repeating itself, then I don’t know what is. See Solzhenitsyn’s The Gulag Archipelago, as I seem to be repeating in blog after blog. All of this just happened, and there are still people alive who saw it and lived it the last time.
Are we doing enough? From the Telegram channel Ищи своих, from 15 May, 2022 (translated using Google Translate):
West not doing enough to unseat Putin, Iranian analyst
“Regime change in any situation, be it in Russia, Iran or North Korea, will not be possible without the intervention of an internal factor or the people.”
Amir Taheri is sure: “Putin believes that the war in Ukraine will eventually be the first step towards the “Russification” of Europe. It is important to help the Russian people understand that Putin wants to go in the opposite direction of history and bring Russia to war with all of Europe.”
There you have it. We are not doing enough- the US, Europe, the rest of the world. My immediate list- more opinions on my part- on what should be done:
- Every penny that is in any way traced back to Russia should immediately go into a fund for the eventual rebuilding of Ukraine, or for the fight against Russia right now
- Every Russian unit, every single soldier being held by Ukraine who was anywhere near the scene of any war crimes should be questioned, and if evidence indicates, put on trial immediately. The trials should be swift and just, more in keeping with Nuremberg- a year and half and they were completed. Not like the ICTY trials, and those still underway, in Bosnia- 30 years after the fact!
- Every last resource available to us, those of us outside of Russia, should be used to bring Putin and his regime down- economic means, cyber warfare, sanctions against Russia and sanctions against US companies and multi-nationals who still do business in Russia (these in place until they leave Russia for good), and finally good old fashioned subversion and psyops (psychological operations)- getting alternative information- truth, into Russia through radio, TV, social media, and even in print. Spreading accurate information in a closed society is a form of subversion. Subversion is a tactic that can gain more ground psychologically than possibly any other. We see a few overt, active subversive acts going on- the firebombing of recruiting stations for example (level 3 subversion includes sabotage). These firebombings should be only the beginning.
Again, my opinions. And yes, they are harsh. But the survival of Europe as we know it, and… not to be too much of a doomsayer here, but… possibly even our SPECIES is at stake here.
Feeding the hungry in Ukraine– an update from the World Central Kitchen. They continue to feed so many people in Ukraine- 25 million meals served to date! They are always in need of donations. See the links above, right.
Russian soldiers murdered by Putin so far- fast approaching twice the number who died in Afghanistan over the course of 10 years!
Russian combat losses as of 16 May 2022
I could not pass up reposting this report and its images from the Telegram channel Ищи своих. This type of “enforcement” smacks of Stalin’s methods for the purges. Back then any “infraction”, meaning in pretext whether true or fabricated, could be used against any citizen as cause for their arrest, torture, and execution.
Here is the translation through Google Translate of the original Ukrainian post:
Detentions for the blue-yellow color in Russia.
👉 In the center of Moscow, a girl was grabbed by the police for her manicure in the color of the Ukrainian flag. Two protocols were drawn up against her about allegedly discrediting the Russian army and violating the rules for holding a public event.
👉 And in Pskov, the police came to a woman who had a blue and yellow fence. They said that these colors are undesirable in the Russian Federation while the war is going on in Ukraine. The fence was forced to be repainted completely blue.
At Five AM 