Ukraine Updates, and Escaping Russian Energy

Eastern Europe is moving forward to replace Russian energy- see the 07 December article at the BIRN website which discusses Balkan-Azerbaijani talks on energy cooperation. The strategic energy partnerships discussed have huge repercussions for the Russia. Not only do the negotiations, and the current and proposed projects allow for the independence of the target countries from Russia, they also grant another measure of independence and security to source countries such as Azerbaijan, and other former Soviet Bloc countries who are part of the projects. If these projects are seen through- and they must be- the power gained by Russia in its weaponisation of energy will continue to decrease.

From the Radio Free Europe website, the article Uzbekistan Rejects Putin-Proposed ‘Trilateral Natural Gas Union’ is another indication that the region, its goals and allegiances are changing. 

Aljazeera reported more promising news in the article EU, Western Balkans leaders meet amid fears of Russian influence. 

From the ISW website, here is their RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, DECEMBER 7.
The key takeaways for the day follow:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine.
• Putin is using Russia’s Human Rights Council to consolidate power while rejecting principles of international human rights law.
• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made comments supporting ISW’s previous assessments that an operational pause in the winter of 2022-2023 would favor Russia.
• Russian forces used Shahed-136 drones in Ukraine for the first time in three weeks.
• Russian efforts to pressure Belarus into joining the war in Ukraine may be causing friction in the Belarusian military.
• Russian forces are likely increasing the pace of their counterattacks in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas.
• Russian forces continued defensive operations and the reorientation of their forces in eastern Kherson Oblast.
• Independent Russian media sources indicated that mobilization efforts will continue despite statements from Russian officials to the contrary.
• Russian occupation authorities are likely transforming Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast, into a rear military and logistics base for Russian forces.

You can support small business in Ukraine- visit the Made With Bravery website and so some holiday shopping! The website is making a difference- it supports small businesses and the war effort through donations to United24, which collects funds for Ukraine. Here is a quote from an email I just received from them:

For the 2 months of brave work, together with your help, we transferred 722,000 UAH or 18,700 EUR to United24, and we will continue to do so! 

To remind you, we transfer all profit from the marketplace commission to the presidential fundraising platform United24 in the direction of ‘Rebuild Ukraine.’ Plus, 5% will be transferred on top if a purchase is made with Visa.

The funds are deposited into the account of the National Bank of Ukraine, and then a special platform commission is directed to current programs for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Currently, we are choosing an exact object for which our brave community will collect the funds. We will keep you informed in the following emails.

Finally, as reported on the Telegram channel Ищи своих Russian war dead has reached nearly 93,000.

Russian war dead as of 07 December, 2022

 

Risks of Premature Ceasefire In Ukraine, Ukraine War Updates

As a follow-up to my recent post about avoiding a Bosnia-style outcome in Ukraine, I have found a related article of interest. Originally posted on the website Criticalthreats.org, the article The Long-Term Risks of a Premature Ceasefire in Ukraine by Fredrick W. Kagan outlines the most likely scenarios if anything other than a complete Ukrainian victory and expulsion of the invading Russian aggressors from Ukraine is not achieved. Simply put, if there is a compromise of any sort in Ukraine, European and world security will continue to be at a higher level of risk; after regrouping Russia will continue its aggression against Ukraine and then into other parts of eastern Europe; and western support of Ukraine is likely to wane once Russia goes on the offensive and begins to win ground through this “diplomacy”, further threatening Ukraine and the world.

Another source of interest is an article from The Washington Post from March, 2022. It discusses the size of Ukraine and its major population centers, and compares them in numbers and graphically to similar-sized US cities.

See today’s post on the Institute for the Study of War for an update on the Russian campaign of aggression against Ukraine. 

Radio Free Europe reports a drone strike at an airfield inside Russia. Part of that report states:

At least one large explosion occurred at a Russian military air base in the Saratov region, about 600 kilometers east of Ukraine, while another blast was reported by Russian state media at an airfield outside Ryazan, southeast of Moscow.

The December 6 incident, coming a day after Moscow accused Ukraine of carrying out deadly drone strikes on two other airfields, prompted the Kremlin to announce that Putin convened a meeting of his Security Council to discuss how to ensure the state’s “domestic security.” No other details were provided.

Part of the comments from today’s Institute for the Study of War update regarding those drone strikes follow:

Anger over the Russian military’s inability to prevent the Ukrainian strikes on Russian strategic airbases over 280 miles from Ukrainian positions outweighed praise for the latest round of strikes against Ukraine within the Russian milblogger community. Russian milbloggers criticized Russian officials for failing to anticipate and prevent the drone strikes at the Engels-2 and Dyagilevo Air Bases on December 5.[10] Select milbloggers noted that Russian military officials have not adequately protected the airbases, with some suggesting that Russian officials did not adequately defend the bases despite knowing that they were clear targets for Ukrainian strikes.[11] Several prominent Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups must have launched the strike against the Engels-2 air base from inside Russian territory, asserting either that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are active inside Russia or – if the UAVs were launched from Ukrainian territory – that Moscow is under threat from Ukrainian territory.[12]

As of today, Russian dictator Putin is responsible for the death nearly 92,000 people. 

Russian combat dead as of 05 December, 2022

Remember that you can support Ukraine no matter who you are. Use the links at the top of the page to donate to Ukraine’s war effort. Shop on their Made With Bravery website and support Ukrainian businesses at the same time. Help keep this free country free. 

 

Missile Strikes Poland; Made With Bravery- Supporting Ukrainian Businesses

The main news item today, for me, is the Russian-made missile striking inside Polish territory. The investigation is still underway as to who fired the missile, but a report on Aljazeera states that it was likely fired as part of Ukrainian defenses against a missile barrage launched by Russia:

Moscow’s forces launched 110 missiles and 10 Iranian-made attack drones throughout the country, the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said, leaving millions of households without power.

Ukraine said more than 70 missiles were shot down, but some hit the city of Lviv, near the border with Poland to the west.

Either way, it has made a stir.  The fact that there are missiles flying around Europe at all should be our focus of attention. Why is this happening in the year 2022? Somewhere in the morning’s news items I did see that reports from Russia indicate that more and more people are speaking out, in social media at least, against the war and Putin.  Good, please keep it up! And if there is anyone inside of Russia reading this that is still on the fence about where that country is going, in my expert opinion your trajectory is unsustainable. Or, in Russian, buduschego net. That it, unless you take action and make big changes in your government immediately.

Made With Bravery and United24

Recently I was introduced to the website Made With Bravery, a marketplace for Ukrainian businesses. The site launched in mid-September, and currently has around 250 merchants with products on the site. Not only do the merchants continue to do business, but the site donates all of their marketplace commissions, and an additional 5% if you pay with Visa, to United24. I am placing my first order today, for holiday gifts.