The people of Russia, if they want to be free from the tyranny they now suffer…
must arm themselves as best they can (rifles, revolvers, bombs, knives, knuckle-dusters, sticks, rags soaked in kerosene for starting fires, ropes or rope ladders, shovels for building barricades, pyroxylin cartridges, barbed wire, nails [against cavalry], etc., etc.)…. Select leaders or officers… work out signals… calls or whistles so that the comrades recognise one another in a crowd; previously arranged signals in the event of meetings at night, etc., etc…. Get weapons by attacking… a policemen, stray Cossacks… and seizing their arms… fight by getting on to the roofs or upper storeys of houses, etc., and showering stones or pouring boiling water on the troops, etc.
There is more, much more. Curious about the source? A bit of irony here- it is from Lenin’s Tasks of Revolutionary Army Contingents, written in 1905. I suppose it applies just as much today, to try and get out of this mess, as it did when Russians used the tactics to get themselves into it!
On to NATO:
Turkey on Finland and Sweden joining NATO, from the Telegram channel ….
The President of Turkey discussed with the leaders of Finland and Sweden their accession to NATO.
Erdogan demanded from Sweden to take action against organizations that Ankara considers terrorist, in particular regarding the PKK. And also to lift the embargo on the export of weapons imposed on Turkey due to the military operation against the Kurds.
Finnish President Niinistö called the conversation with Erdogan “open and direct”: “As NATO allies, Finland and Turkey will assume obligations to ensure each other’s security, and therefore our relations will become stronger. Finland condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. The close dialogue continues.”
Sounds better than last week when the “news” would have us believe that Turkey was set against their joining.
If you are so inclined, Brookings hosted an event with the ambassadors of Finland and Sweden to the US this week, which is available to watch online- Finland, Sweden, and the future of NATO. The event was very informative, reinforcing for me a lot of what I already understood about the capabilities of both countries. I would stress that both countries are highly prepared to join NATO. Their spending levels meet or exceed the NATO member country requirements. Their armaments, preparedness, and ability to integrate with NATO cannot to be questioned.
One reason for their defensive capabilities is that both countries have a security posture called “total defense.” This means that they are prepared on all levels to defend their countries- from maintaining a strong posture in order to deter any threats, to fighting in defense if necessary, to the creation of resistance movements if areas of the country are occupied. This posture is visible throughout all levels of society- the entire population, business, infrastructure- everyone and everything is a part of the nations’ defenses. Look to Ukraine’s current posture, and success, and you will see total defense in action. Point of note, the Baltic countries and Poland also practice a total defense posture.
Here is an article at Overtdefense.com from June, 2021 outlining Ukraine’s total defense policy, and explaining why it can be so effective.
For more on the current status of NATO in general, and its decline in defensive ability since the end of the Cold War, see the paper by Anthony W. Cordesman and Grace Hwang, The Ukraine War: Preparing for the Longer-term Outcome. It is another very informative piece, which stresses the need for immediate and massive upgrades in NATO as a whole if it is to be a capable force. My takeaway from it: the Ukraine war has given NATO the best reference point it is going to get in relation to accuracy in planning for future threats from Russia. The Ukraine war is a wake-up call for NATO to asses its capabilities and implement changes across the board, immediatley.
Finally, Putin continues to murder his own citizens:
Russian combat losses as of 24 May, 2022
“Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” The words of Winston Churchill, which need to be considered to fully understand the predicament the world is in today, the possible futures before us, and the requirements of western nations, emerging democracies, and authoritarian regimes alike. We have essentially two choices: to work towards equity, justice, democracy, freedom, and liberty. Or to work towards the opposite, the path of the pathological, authoritarian, megalomaniac “leading” Russia. Remember, there has never been a perfect political system, just as there has never been peace. Both are idealised parts of a long dreamt of world, that at best is what we strive for, work towards, never lose hope of attaining. At worst they are, and will remain, fantasies, illusions, and far-off dreams.
Another quote summarises the Russian state. From Foreign Affairs magazine May/June 2022 issue, in the article Putin Unbound by Daniel Treisman,
“Russia is a brutally repressive police state run by a small group of hard-liners who have imposed ever-harsher policies both at home and abroad.”
Governments are at work, militaries are at work, Finland and Sweden have made their decisions, but what can the rest of us do? The simplest thing that anyone can do is to donate to help Ukraine. See the links in the upper right of this post. Not everyone can do that, so next is to fight against disinformation and help spread the truth- pass on verified information to as many people as possible within your networks. This is not just a battle against disinformation being fought against Russia- it has just as many proponents worldwide, and within our own country. (What a sad state our democracy has fallen to!) Finally, contact your representatives and let them know we need to do more for Ukraine- more food, medicine, weapons, more sanctions against Russia, and more support for NATO and Europe.
In an article in the Wall Street Journal from last weekend, Putin Drives Finland Into NATO’s Arms, there is a quote by a 78-year-old amateur historian that stands out,
What Stalin forgot, and what Putin is forgetting now, is that if you fight for your own home, it makes the difference.
The reference here is to the Winter War of 1939-1940 where Finnish fighters did the same to Russian forces as Ukrainians are doing now- cutting them off, destroying their morale, destroying their forces, and eventually driving them out. The people of Finland were brave in 1939-1940, as they were last week in joining NATO. The people of Ukraine are brave. They are standing up for the world and they deserve our help.
The same article outlines the very prudent preparations that Finland has been making on their own over many, many years. These range from defense spending almost meeting NATO requirements, to upgrading and training with equipment that will integrate immediately with that used by NATO, to building a series of underground tunnels and shelters that will house up to 70% of the population, while stockpiling food, fuel and medicine. Finland sets an example for all other countries to follow.
Since this seems to be a post full of quotes, I will end with one more. “Budschego net“- Russian for “no future.” This I learned from Masha Gessen’s similarly titled book, The Future is History. It is a commonly held and expressed sentiment in the… former Soviet Union, or today’s Russia, and says it all.
If by some stretch of the imagination someone in Russia reads this post, know that the future has not been cancelled entirely. The future is up to you. Be brave like the people of Ukraine and stand up to your government. You may suffer, and you may die. But Russians will continue to die every day until they stand together against their own tyranny.
Russian combat losses as of 20 May 2022
At Five AM 