So much has happened during this last month- I have been disappearing into the desert alone for long periods, necessary for my sanity.
As of today some 35,600 Russian soldiers have been murdered by the Russian madman that claims to be the leader of that country. Way to go Putin, digging your own grave.
This week’s news alone holds so much positive information. The Ukrainians continue to defend, hold out, regain, and defeat the Russian army. The Russians continue to act in desperation, using soviet-era stock to try and win an unwinnable war, and preparing more of their young people to die, even as their financial reserves dwindle and so much of the world stands against them. The US is sending more money and weapons to Ukraine, as are other countries. Support for the defenders of Ukraine grows, as more and more people realise that this is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a war between Russia and Europe, if not between Russia and the entire free world.
Turkey has agreed to NATO membership of Finland and Sweden- this is huge. Turkey is certainly a country to watch, a wild card in the mix if you will. But this ups their status tremendously. We will see how Erdogan’s posturing over the last month or so pays off for his image. So far it looks like he played his hand well.
Ukrainian military Bayraktar TB2 drones
I have noticed a lot of references to the Cold War, and our return to the Cold War. I think it should be very clear at this point that what we face will be nothing like the Cold War. We are so far removed from those days, and we will never return there. The current situation is much worse for many more countries and parts of the world. Globalisation has made us all far more dependent on each other than we were even 30 years ago when the Cold War ended. Resources and products can come from the other side of the world, and any disruption is felt like never before. That combined with population increases, climate change, world fiscal instability, the pandemic exacerbating all of it, and most important of all is the fact that nuclear weapons abound with many of them held by less than responsible nations- especially Russia. All of this puts us in a place we have never been, in a completely new paradigm.
A reminder too, that Ukraine and Russia should not be our primary focus. We must not forget about other eastern European countries that are ripe for the picking so to speak. Keep a close eye on Hungary, Serbia (as well as Bosnia and Republika Srbska), Belarus, and the other non-NATO or non-EU countries that Russia or their satellites have had an eye on. These countries, if Putin had his way, would be the next to fall. They are in no way out of danger.
The people of Russia, if they want to be free from the tyranny they now suffer…
must arm themselves as best they can (rifles, revolvers, bombs, knives, knuckle-dusters, sticks, rags soaked in kerosene for starting fires, ropes or rope ladders, shovels for building barricades, pyroxylin cartridges, barbed wire, nails [against cavalry], etc., etc.)…. Select leaders or officers… work out signals… calls or whistles so that the comrades recognise one another in a crowd; previously arranged signals in the event of meetings at night, etc., etc…. Get weapons by attacking… a policemen, stray Cossacks… and seizing their arms… fight by getting on to the roofs or upper storeys of houses, etc., and showering stones or pouring boiling water on the troops, etc.
There is more, much more. Curious about the source? A bit of irony here- it is from Lenin’s Tasks of Revolutionary Army Contingents, written in 1905. I suppose it applies just as much today, to try and get out of this mess, as it did when Russians used the tactics to get themselves into it!
On to NATO:
Turkey on Finland and Sweden joining NATO, from the Telegram channel ….
The President of Turkey discussed with the leaders of Finland and Sweden their accession to NATO.
Erdogan demanded from Sweden to take action against organizations that Ankara considers terrorist, in particular regarding the PKK. And also to lift the embargo on the export of weapons imposed on Turkey due to the military operation against the Kurds.
Finnish President Niinistö called the conversation with Erdogan “open and direct”: “As NATO allies, Finland and Turkey will assume obligations to ensure each other’s security, and therefore our relations will become stronger. Finland condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. The close dialogue continues.”
Sounds better than last week when the “news” would have us believe that Turkey was set against their joining.
If you are so inclined, Brookings hosted an event with the ambassadors of Finland and Sweden to the US this week, which is available to watch online- Finland, Sweden, and the future of NATO. The event was very informative, reinforcing for me a lot of what I already understood about the capabilities of both countries. I would stress that both countries are highly prepared to join NATO. Their spending levels meet or exceed the NATO member country requirements. Their armaments, preparedness, and ability to integrate with NATO cannot to be questioned.
One reason for their defensive capabilities is that both countries have a security posture called “total defense.” This means that they are prepared on all levels to defend their countries- from maintaining a strong posture in order to deter any threats, to fighting in defense if necessary, to the creation of resistance movements if areas of the country are occupied. This posture is visible throughout all levels of society- the entire population, business, infrastructure- everyone and everything is a part of the nations’ defenses. Look to Ukraine’s current posture, and success, and you will see total defense in action. Point of note, the Baltic countries and Poland also practice a total defense posture.
Here is an article at Overtdefense.com from June, 2021 outlining Ukraine’s total defense policy, and explaining why it can be so effective.
For more on the current status of NATO in general, and its decline in defensive ability since the end of the Cold War, see the paper by Anthony W. Cordesman and Grace Hwang, The Ukraine War: Preparing for the Longer-term Outcome. It is another very informative piece, which stresses the need for immediate and massive upgrades in NATO as a whole if it is to be a capable force. My takeaway from it: the Ukraine war has given NATO the best reference point it is going to get in relation to accuracy in planning for future threats from Russia. The Ukraine war is a wake-up call for NATO to asses its capabilities and implement changes across the board, immediatley.
Finally, Putin continues to murder his own citizens:
Russian combat losses as of 24 May, 2022
Points of note for today:
- Aljazeera reports first war crimes trail of Russian soldier will begin.
- Also causing a stir with Russia, Finland will join NATO, with Sweden likely to follow within days.
- UKRINFORM website reports Russia has used about 70% of its arsenal of high-precision missiles.
- The same site reports that Russia is unable to fully restore the combat capability of military units withdrawn from Ukraine.
- Add Bulgaria to the list of countries to keep an eye on as another Putin apologist, a former Bulgarian presidential advisor, works to destabilise Bulgaria and in crease support of Russia.
Finally, while we would like to believe that all large, multi-national companies are supporting Ukraine and have left Russia, this is not the case. Companies such as Nestle, MARS, Danone, Procter & Gamble, Philip Morris, and PepsiCo to name a few, are still doing business in Russia to one degree or another- still selling products, selling a limited range of products, and paying employees (and therefore taxes to the Russian government).
The following is reposted from the Telegram channel Center for Countering Disinformation, 11-12 May, 2022:
Russia as a terrorist state-
Given the beginning of Western countries’ recognition of Russia as a terrorist state, it is necessary to inform about the consequences of such a decision for it
- A state sponsor of terrorism is a country that, in accordance with the official position of the US State Department, provides support for acts of international terrorism.
- 10.05.2022 – Lithuania recognizes Russia as a terrorist country. The Lithuanian Seimas has adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a terrorist state.
- 10.05.2022 – the US Senate registered a resolution recognizing Russia as a sponsor of terrorism.
Inclusion on such a list entails severe economic and political sanctions, including:
- ban on arms supplies (export and sale)
- control over the export of dual-use goods
- ban on economic aid
- various financial and other restrictions
Baltic States deny Russian propaganda victory-
Russian propaganda claims that the campaign launched by the governments of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to recognize Russia as an aggressor country is not supported by the Russian-speaking population of these countries
But the kremlin’s hopes of using Russian-speaking minorities to justify the special operation proved futile.
🔺On April 21, the parliamentarians of Estonia and Latvia recognized the Russian actions as genocide of the Ukrainian people
🔺Latvian opposition Harmony party, which represents the interests of Russian-born voters, unanimously condemned the aggression
🔺Estonian faction of the Centrist Party, based on the Russian-speaking electorate, signed a statement in support of Ukraine
🔺Lithuanian parliamentarians unanimously adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a state that supports and commits terrorism
🔺According to a survey conducted by the Baltic agency SKDS, 68% of Russian-speaking respondents support Ukraine, take part in actions in support of Ukraine and help refugees.
Russian combat losses as of 12 May, 2022
At Five AM 