So much has happened during this last month- I have been disappearing into the desert alone for long periods, necessary for my sanity.
As of today some 35,600 Russian soldiers have been murdered by the Russian madman that claims to be the leader of that country. Way to go Putin, digging your own grave.
This week’s news alone holds so much positive information. The Ukrainians continue to defend, hold out, regain, and defeat the Russian army. The Russians continue to act in desperation, using soviet-era stock to try and win an unwinnable war, and preparing more of their young people to die, even as their financial reserves dwindle and so much of the world stands against them. The US is sending more money and weapons to Ukraine, as are other countries. Support for the defenders of Ukraine grows, as more and more people realise that this is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a war between Russia and Europe, if not between Russia and the entire free world.
Turkey has agreed to NATO membership of Finland and Sweden- this is huge. Turkey is certainly a country to watch, a wild card in the mix if you will. But this ups their status tremendously. We will see how Erdogan’s posturing over the last month or so pays off for his image. So far it looks like he played his hand well.
Ukrainian military Bayraktar TB2 drones
I have noticed a lot of references to the Cold War, and our return to the Cold War. I think it should be very clear at this point that what we face will be nothing like the Cold War. We are so far removed from those days, and we will never return there. The current situation is much worse for many more countries and parts of the world. Globalisation has made us all far more dependent on each other than we were even 30 years ago when the Cold War ended. Resources and products can come from the other side of the world, and any disruption is felt like never before. That combined with population increases, climate change, world fiscal instability, the pandemic exacerbating all of it, and most important of all is the fact that nuclear weapons abound with many of them held by less than responsible nations- especially Russia. All of this puts us in a place we have never been, in a completely new paradigm.
A reminder too, that Ukraine and Russia should not be our primary focus. We must not forget about other eastern European countries that are ripe for the picking so to speak. Keep a close eye on Hungary, Serbia (as well as Bosnia and Republika Srbska), Belarus, and the other non-NATO or non-EU countries that Russia or their satellites have had an eye on. These countries, if Putin had his way, would be the next to fall. They are in no way out of danger.
Brookings Event- Does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mark the end of the post-Cold War era?
2 March 2022
The live event just ended, but the video is online and available to watch. It will be a well-spent hour of your time!
“The Jungle Grows Back” by Robert Kagan- A Must Read
10 November 2018
After a very slow and careful reading of The Jungle Grows Back by Robert Kagan, and after much reflection on the past 45 or 50 years of history that I personally experienced, I find that my level of concern over the fate of the world has increased dramatically. Kagan lays out clearly and logically why the United States cannot abandon the world and why we must remain the global leader of the liberal world order we have helped to create, lest the world as we know it disappear from our grasp.
Kagan’s focus throughout is the refutation of the isolationist stance Begun by the Obama administration and adopted wholesale by the Trump administration. He leaves no room for questioning the necessity of US involvement and leadership around the world. Kagan believes that if we revert to our global position prior to World War II, democracy and human rights will backslide globally, authoritarian regimes (Russia, China, Turkey, Korea) will grow and seize more power, and the security of the world will be undermined. In short we would allow the undoing of everything we have spent so many lives, so much time, and so much money since 1945 to promote.
Everything we have helped promote? Yes, it is true- whether we accept it or not- the US has lead the world since World War II. Kagan gives abundant examples of US leadership over the last 70 years. We have, for better or for worse, taken charge and done our best to make the world a better place. Of course it is very easy to cite arguments against US involvement from past experience, from the promotion of our own corporate interests, to the protection of dictatorial regimes, to looking the other way when human rights are violated.
All this is true; there is no denying it. We could have done better, we could have acted sooner, made better choices, and acted differently as we blundered our way through the last 70 years. But then hindsight is always 20/20. The main question we should be asking ourselves is this: What is the alternative to US leadership? And to take it a step further, what would have been the outcome had we not led the world during that time?
Failure to act is worse- in many cases much worse- than the possibility of acting incorrectly. Prime examples of failure to act in recent years: Yugoslavia and especially Bosnia and its capital Sarajevo, and more recently Syria. Our inaction left thousands, hundreds of thousands dead. Of course we are not a “global police force”, but by the same token we cannot sit idly by and let history takes its course. If we do, we will have a world led by Russia and China- not a very promising thought. The bottom line: read the book. It will inform any political thought, and help to assimilate the constant stream of conflicting information in the world today.
At Five AM 