The war in Ukraine is now a year old. On Friday, 24 February I watched two webinars discussing the past year, and what the future might look like. Brookings held an event titled, “Meeting the Russia challenge: Lessons from the foreign policy transition from Bush to Obama.” The panelists, including Condoleezza Rice and Fiona Hill, recalled some of Russia’s past actions, and discussed how they shape Russia’s actions, and our own, today. Also posted on the Brookings page is a special section called “Lessons From Ukraine.” The contributors are among our country’s, and the world’s foremost experts on their subjects.
For more thoughts on the war, see also the Council on Foreign Relations current Ukraine page for more analysis. Finally, RAND has posted a blog titled “One Year After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React” where you can read quick reflections on the year past and the future by the experts.
There was also a webinar online at foreignaffairs.com. Again, expert analysis and opinion. Unfortunately they do not seem to provide recorded events for later viewing. Their year in review can be found here (paid subscription may be required for full content.)
My study of hybrid warfare/new generation warfare continues. Today I decided to back up, thousands of years in fact, and think about the beginning of the study or war, and how it shapes the war in Ukraine, and warfare today in general. I narrowed my focus to three points, all stemming from Sun Tzu’s adage, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”
- Study Russian history- from hundreds of years in the past, to Putin’s actions last week, to develop an understanding of his mentality and its shaping of Russian doctrine, his actions and decisions.
- Study Russian doctrine- especially that part of it dedicated to New Generation Warfare (NGW), and pay attention to differences between the doctrine on paper and actions on the ground.
- Take a close look at US military doctrine (which directly affects those of our partners) especially information warfare, assess the shortfalls, and search for indications that they are being remedied.
Putin’s fascination with Russia’s history of imperialism is often noted in articles and talks. It came up in both above events, mentioned by numerous panelists. In summary, Putin may see it as his duty to continue Russia’s imperialist aims. These aims are an integral part of Russian history and life in Russia in general- warfare, hardship, and suffering are part of Russian history and the Russian psyche.
Continuing on with hybrid warfare/NGW, for a concise perspective on NGW and counter-NGW, and where the US Army falls short, a must-read is “Russian New Generation Warfare: Deterring and Winning the Tactical Fight,” by James Derleth, in Military Review, September-October 2020. Pay close attention to the notes at the end- there are important definitions included, not to mention a worthy reading list.
Here is a direct quote from his summary, which urges us out of the past, and into developing robust counter-NGW tactics:
“The dichotomy of war and peace is no longer a useful construct for thinking about national security or tactical operations. We are in a state of competition and conflict that is continuous and dynamic.”
What does continuous conflict in this context mean? In short, it is about continuous and unrelenting information warfare. It is about weaponised information. The availability of information and being connected 24 hours a day is not going away, it is only spreading horizontally to more people, and more remote locations around the globe. And with it the spread of engineered truth- “truth” that fits the writer’s needs, will spread as well. In our post-truth political and informational environment it becomes harder each moment to avoid deception, to sort truth from lies; we have no choice but to continue to try.
Finally, Russian combat losses to date:
Russian combat losses as of 26 February, 2023
Ukraine Updates 08 January, 2023- Recommended Reading
8 January 2023
The war in Ukraine continues, with unflagging bravery and fortitude on the part of the defenders, and the support of the free world. This is the way it should remain, until the end- that being Russia’s surrender, return of all Ukrainian territory, and withdrawal. We- the US, Europe, NATO, our allies, should not waver in our support. We should increase our physical support, and increase our “non-kinetic” pressures against the Russian mafia state (sanctions, denial of services, aid to states threatened by Russia). Now, with my personal opinions out of the way, on to some of the sources of data that help shape those opinions.
A recent RAND paper, from 20 December, 2022, Responding to a Limited Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War discusses possible scenarios that a limited attack against NATO or European targets by Russia might entail, what might provoke such an attack, and the range of response and retaliation options that we have. The RAND paper notes the need for the US, NATO, and Europe to have this response matrix ready now in the event that Russia initiates such an attack, and notes that increasing desperation on their part might increase the possibility an attack occurring.
From the Diplomatic Courier from 14 December, 2022- RUSSIA RISKS LOSING ARMENIA AS AN ALLY– Russia further isolates itself from its neighbor and CTSO ally through inaction regarding the Azerbaijan- Armenia conflict. Armenia seeks help from France on resolving the conflict, and close ties to Europe and the US in its choice to promote freedom and democracy in the country.
From Ukrinform, from 07 January, 2023- “Belarus is being occupied by military forces that are stationed at training grounds, most likely for a long time. And there will be no future for Belarus as an independent country,” say Oleksandr Pavliuk, Commander of Kyiv Defense Forces. The story is here- Belarus has no future as independent country- Kyiv Defense Commander
If you have the time or inclination, some light reading- Russian ‘Hybrid Warfare’ and the Annexation of Crimea; The Modern Application of Soviet Political Warfare by Kent DeBenedictis, is available at Bloomsbury.com.
Another work that will prove informative is Putin’s Preventive Counter-Revolution; Post-Soviet Authoritarianism and the Spectre of Velvet Revolution, By Robert Horvath. It was published in 2014 and is available at Routledge.com. I have both books on order, and would like to point out that I am in no way affiliated with or do I receive any remuneration from any of the publishers or sources I cite.
From ISW, update on the war for 07 January, 2023.
Finally, Russian combat losses continue to mount:
Russian combat losses as of 08 January, 2023
More Russian Dead
2 November 2022
As of today there are 73,270 dead Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Instead of posting that graphic, another one caught my eye. Here is a breakdown of Russian officers- Russian “leaders”, killed in battle. Leaders, those who lead their soldiers to be killed. But Russian warfighting doctrine hasn’t changed with the rest of the world. It amounts to this: throw troops into battle, there are plenty more to be sent. Graphic from Ukrainian Telegram channel Ищи своих (“Look For Yours”).
Russian officers killed in Ukraine as of 02 November 2022, with two bonus captures.
Lies, Losses, and the Long Road Ahead
30 April 2022
I often wonder these days if I should even make the effort to repost and refute Russian propaganda lies. One thing should be perfectly clear, for anyone who has eyes to see- every single word, phrase, statement that comes out of Russia is a lie, pure propaganda, and should only be taken for its value as a piece of propaganda to be added to all the rest in order to arrive at some shred of truth (most often the exact opposite of what is being stated.)
Remember this- dictatorships, authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, and the Russian mafia state all have a common leadership style- that of maintaining an unstable society, a society of division and shortages, through terror and fear, in order to legitimise and necessitate their rule.
Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, their war crimes and crimes against humanity there, there inciting of anti-state, pro-Russian aggression in Ukraine and Moldova, and their desires in Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia and elsewhere, along with their threats of nuclear war should be keeping the world awake at night. These facts should be prompting world leaders to do much more than they are doing. We are faced with an existential threat- our very lives are at stake. The lives of everyone living, and for many generations ahead, hang in the balance. Every possible action that can be taken against Russia, Russian interests, Russian partners- any country with ties to Russia must be taken.
Putin must fall, the Russian state must fail, the Russian people must be freed. Only then will Ukraine and the rest of the world be safe again.
On to Russian combat losses for today. The following comes from the Telegram channel The Center for Countering Disinformation.
Russian combat losses as of 30 April 2022
From the same Telegram channel, the morning’s Fake/Fact post:
❌Despite the position of Western countries on the inadmissibility of nuclear blackmail and the prevention of nuclear war, russian foreign minister lavrov said that russia will never flirt with the topic of nuclear war, Zelensky spoke about it in Munich
🔻Caution: it’s a fake!❌russia’s propaganda continues to spread the thesis of the return of peaceful life in the territories temporarily occupied by the russian army. Thus, the russian ambassador to the US officially stated that a peaceful life is being established in the territories liberated from the Nazis
🔻Caution: it’s a disinformation!❌russia continues to influence the world community. In particular, in an interview with the Chinese news agency Xinhua, Lavrov said that the russian military in Ukraine does everything to avoid casualties among the civilian population
🔻Caution: it’s a manipulation!
Russian Disinformation for 18 April, 2022; Russian Emigration; Defending Ukraine Together
18 April 2022
Today is another day, a good day for most of us, but not so for the people of Ukraine. Below is a repost from the Telegram Channel The Center for Countering Disinformation. They are posting daily, countering disinformation from many different sources. The takeaway from all of it- beware ANY information that comes out of Russia, no matter where you read it.
Hybrid warfare, the kind the world is currently engaged in, includes digital warfare- manipulation of data, imagery and video, not to mention standard hacking operations. Propaganda and disinformation, and specifically in Russia, the use of conspiracy theories, have long been methods used to manipulate populations. Today the same tactics have instant global reach, swaying huge numbers of people in many countries in a relatively short time.
The CCD staff has compiled a selection of russia’s fakes, manipulations and disinformation bogus stories on April 18, 2022
❌ During a report at a meeting of the Commission to Investigate the Activities of Biolaboratories in Ukraine, Vice Speaker of the state duma of russia Yarova said that russia “discovered the fact of bacteriological terrorism against children in the ORLO in 2020”
🔻Warning: it’s a fake!❌russian media published words taken from the publication of the former President of the Czech Republic V. Klaus for the “iDNES”: “Now everyone is literally radiating love for Ukraine and Ukrainians, but isn’t this love just a screen that hides “hatred for russia”
🔻Warning: it’s a manipulation!❌russian propagandists stated that “the United States has already handed over to Kyiv more than a third of its missile reserves for Javelin anti-tank systems, and Germany and Canada have already exhausted opportunities for military assistance”
🔻Warning: it’s a disinformation!Let’s stop #infoterror!
Russian Emigration
An Aljazeera article posted today cites 300,000 Russians leaving the country as of 16 March, as well as others who were out of the country when the war began who are not returning. The article speaks of the fears of many in Russia- mainly those who have an anti-war and anti-Putin stance- fear of physical retribution, fear of imprisonment, and fear of being “purged“, a word used by Putin himself in a mid-March speech, according to the article. Welcome to Putinist Russia, Stalinist Russia rebranded.
Wondering how you can help?
The links to the right are a place to start. You can help feed Ukrainians, donate to help journalists continue to report, or donate to the Ukrainian Red Cross. Another way to help is to support the purchase of electronics, defensive equipment, training, and rehabilitation of brave Ukrainian fighters. The website Defending Ukraine Together allows you to help. Here is a paragraph outlining their purpose, taken directly from their website:
How Come Back Alive Helps
Our fund supports the Armed Forces of Ukraine through financing purely defence initiatives. Since 2014 we have provided around 1000 thermal imagers and over 250 UAVs. In addition to the material support, we increased technological capabilities of the Army through providing 1,500 tablets with Armor software aimed at stopping the artillery. Come Back Alive also organizes trainings to equip our military with crucial skills. In 2015 we launched trainings for medical workers, artillerists, snipers, minesweepers, and defence analysts. After coming back from the front line, our military members have access to sport rehabilitation and veteran business opportunities.
Our organization does not use funds for purchasing arms. Our mission is limited to supplying technology, trainings, and accouterments to help save lives of Ukrainians and help our warriors defend Ukraine.
The City of Irpin has been liberated from the Russian invaders. Here is what is left of it, from the Telegram channel Ищи своих:
City of Irpin- UN Satellite image and data
City of Irpin
Here is translated text from the Telegram post associated with above images:
Another city after getting to know the “Russian world”. This is Irpin, more precisely, what was left of it after the retreat of the Russian troops. 1060 buildings were destroyed or damaged: houses, schools, hospitals.
Here, according to preliminary data, about 300 civilians were killed. The dead were crushed by tanks, literally rolling into asphalt.
📸 The photos were taken by the UN satellite center Unosat on March 31, 2022 – three days after the liberation of Irpin from the invaders.
Russians continue their assault, but continue to do so at great cost. Here are updated Russian combat losses for today.
Russian Combat Losses as of 16 April, 2022
As Russian combat losses continue to mount, there are claims that Ukrainian marines have surrendered, and of torture of captured Russian soldiers. Beware of disinformation! These claims may be a sign of desperation on the part of Russia. When all other tactics of the aggressor fail, that is, when wholesale destruction of cities and the murder of citizens no longer seems to be working, Russia can always fall back on using the rules of war, and rule of law to get attention by displacing blame from the aggressor to the victim.
Beware any information coming out of Russia, no matter what the source!
Russian combat losses as of 13 April, 2022
You can help the people of Ukraine by donating to World Central Kitchen. They were helping feed victims of Russian aggression in Kramatorsk during the Russian missile attack. You can see tweets and a video from Kramatorsk here.
I wake every morning these days wondering what madness the day has in store. News from Ukraine is of course at the top, and today there is talk of tens of thousands killed in Mariupol, of a new Russian offensive, and war crimes. Russia seems set on continuing to murder Ukrainians, as well as sending their own citizens to be slaughtered. More war means, if the past weeks are any indication, more war crimes. That is the immediate, and then there is the trickle down- rising prices, food shortages, gas shortages, and a growing sense of fear of tomorrow, world wide. Oh, brave new world, that has such people in it!
Ivo Daalder and James Lindsay, in their recent Foreign Policy article, warn against our focus changing from “restoring Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence to a policy of active regime change in Russia.” My opinion, as always: unrelenting and increasing pressure on Russia, from all sides, in all possible forms (short of all-out third world war.) If this means regime change, and I hope it does, then so be it. It is either now, when the scene is set, or later when it will cost even more. We are only putting off the inevitable. Russia will someday fall; it is only a matter of when.
Some numbers, for perspective- in Russia there are approximately:
- 146,000,000 people
- 850,000 active duty military personnel
- 250,000 national guard troops
- 75,000 FSB “officers”
- 750,000 regular police
There are clearly more citizens than FSB, police, and military. And how many of those paid by the state would, in the end, side with the people? Always a question when a coup might be on the horizon.
In the meantime, Russian combat losses continue to increase.
Russian combat losses as of 11 April, 2022 from the Telegram channel Center for Countering Disinformation.
Atrocity of the Day
8 April 2022
Crimes of aggression, crimes against humanity, war crimes, or genocide? It’s just a matter of degrees, and of course intent. For today, take your pick.
Reposted from Telegram channel Ищи своих.
Here is a translation of the accompanying text in the post:
Attack on the railway station in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region. More than 30 dead and more than a hundred injured
The blow to the Kramatorsk railway station was inflicted by the Russian occupiers “Tochka-U”. On the rocket is the inscription “For children” – a favorite phrase of Russian propagandists. Also, the public authorities began to report that they allegedly hit the “concentration of forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”.
Women, children, old people… They were waiting for the evacuation train…
Russian Combat Losses- 07 April, 2022 and Casualties During Soviet-Afghan War in 1980’s
7 April 2022
The Soviet-Afghan war of the 1980’s is cited as one of the factors leading to the collapse of the Soviet Union. In that war of 10 years duration, an estimated 15,000 Soviet soldiers died. As of today, day 43 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia has lost close to an estimated 19,000 soldiers. That is in one and a half months!
While the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and their invasion of Ukraine are two very different types of warfare many decades apart, the outcome will be the same. Russia will ultimately lose. And we can only hope that their loss in Ukraine will bring about the collapse of the current regime in Moscow, giving the Russian people another chance at freedom.
Russian combat losses as of 07 April, 2022
At Five AM 