Update- 30 June, 2022- Russian Deaths, Turkey, Bayraktar TB2 Drones, and the Cold War

So much has happened during this last month- I have been disappearing into the desert alone for long periods, necessary for my sanity.

As of today some 35,600 Russian soldiers have been murdered by the Russian madman that claims to be the leader of that country. Way to go Putin, digging your own grave.

This week’s news alone holds so much positive information. The Ukrainians continue to defend, hold out, regain, and defeat the Russian army. The Russians continue to act in desperation, using soviet-era stock to try and win an unwinnable war, and preparing more of their young people to die, even as their financial reserves dwindle and so much of the world stands against them. The US is sending more money and weapons to Ukraine, as are other countries. Support for the defenders of Ukraine grows, as more and more people realise that this is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a war between Russia and Europe, if not between Russia and the entire free world.

Turkey has agreed to NATO membership of Finland and Sweden- this is huge. Turkey is certainly a country to watch, a wild card in the mix if you will. But this ups their status tremendously. We will see how Erdogan’s posturing over the last month or so pays off for his image. So far it looks like he played his hand well.

The charity foundation of Serhiy Prytula last week started a campaign to raise 15 million USD to buy three Bayraktar TB2 drones from the Turkish manufacturer Baykar. They raised 20 million USD in three days! When Baykar learned of the success of the campaign, they decided to donate the three drones free of charge! They asked that the funds from the campaign be used to fill other areas of need in the Ukrainian resistance. Thank you Baykar! And another gold star for Turkey.

Ukrainian military Bayraktar TB2 drones

I have noticed a lot of references to the Cold War, and our return to the Cold War. I think it should be very clear at this point that what we face will be nothing like the Cold War. We are so far removed from those days, and we will never return there. The current situation is much worse for many more countries and parts of the world. Globalisation has made us all far more dependent on each other than we were even 30 years ago when the Cold War ended. Resources and products can come from the other side of the world, and any disruption is felt like never before. That combined with population increases, climate change, world fiscal instability, the pandemic exacerbating all of it, and most important of all is the fact that nuclear weapons abound with many of them held by less than responsible nations- especially Russia.  All of this puts us in a place we have never been, in a completely new paradigm.

A reminder too, that Ukraine and Russia should not be our primary focus. We must not forget about other eastern European countries that are ripe for the picking so to speak. Keep a close eye on Hungary, Serbia (as well as Bosnia and Republika Srbska), Belarus, and the other non-NATO or non-EU countries that Russia or their satellites have had an eye on. These countries, if Putin had his way, would be the next to fall. They are in no way out of danger.

 

Bosnia, and Its Slippery Slope

Update- 10 January, 2022:
Aljazeera- Protest rallies held in 14 countries to highlight Bosnia’s slide toward conflict.
Balkan Insight- Banned Bosnian Serb Celebration Recalls Memories of Start of War

The US has imposed new sanctions against Republika Srpska political leader Milorad Dodic, along with a few of his associates. The sanctions seem to be more of a token gesture than anything- the new sanctions will likely have very little impact on their targets. As it stands, they may have done more harm than good- they have given Dodic more fodder for his goals of destabilising the country. But such pressure, if followed up, could have far-reaching effects- it could lead to sanctions by EU member nations.  The key to success is to continue putting more pressure on the targets, as well as others associated with them, if any solid outcome is to be achieved. This should be seen as a statement of intent, and not an isolated political move- the already tenuous situation in the Balkans makes action imperative.

One indicator to the path the country is on was highlighted in a recent poll where, in the sample, nearly half of Bosnia’s young people, aged 18-29, have considered leaving the country. Half of those are considering leaving for good. While lack of economic opportunity is reason enough in itself for leaving a country that shows no sign of offering it any time soon, in light of current events, one wonders how much the previous war has on young peoples’ decision making. Of course most of those polled were born at the end, or after the last war, but the memories are recent, and lasting. Denial, and even memorialising genocide and mass murder committed during the war, direct attacks on truth, the revision of history,  and promotion of extreme nationalism alongside lack of possibilities for advancement make a future in Bosnia look bleak. Who can blame the young for looking for opportunity elsewhere?

 

Read more about the sanctions at the Balkan Insight website.

Read more about Bosnia’s exodus at Balkan Insight.