I wake every morning these days wondering what atrocity Russia has perpetuated as I slept. They seem to come one after the other, so many involving the destruction of cities and the killing of civilians. So much for the rules of war. But it is the (former) Soviet Union we are talking about here, now Russia. Jumping back 30 years or so, the primary concern of the architects of the “new Russia” seemed to have been only how to maintain control over the republics, that is, the Soviet satellites. So much of the debate centered on how to keep Ukraine in check, and how not to lose territory, resources, and Russian “property” that in fact never belonged to them. This specifically included the country of Ukraine itself, Donbas, Crimea, and Sevastapol, the Baltics, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and so on- essentially all the countries (and their resources) that Russia had invaded and occupied and that Russia claimed as their own. Russian imperialism, couched in the reforms of Gorbachev- Glasnost and Perestroika, failed. Yeltsin’s Russian “democracy” failed. The only thing that succeeded was their barbaric, imperialistic march toward their centuries-old goal of geopolitical domination, manifested today in their dictator Putin and Russia’s invasion, once again, of the sovereign state of Ukraine.
Seizure, Forfeiture, U.S. and International Law
Lately I have been reading about the economic side of the war, reparations, and future reconstruction. Recently the Brookings Institution posted a report that provides background arguments on restitution, freezing of assets, asset forfeiture constitutional and international legality, and so on. “Proposals to Seize Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Session 22 of the Congressional Study Group” was posted on the Brookings website on Rebuilding Ukraine Will Be Costly. Here’s How to Make Putin Pay for background, and Philip Zelikow’s A Legal Approach to the Transfer of Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine and Laurence Tribe’s essay $100 Billion. Russia’s Treasure in the U.S. Should Be Turned Against Putin for pro-forfeiture arguments.
My summary: whether or not the forfeiture of Russian assets is legal still remains a point of debate amongst the experts. But to me seizure seems clearly legal- or at least it could be made legal by all that I read. Arguments for forfeiture- under U.S. and international law, are supported by various constitutional lawyers such as Philip Zelikow and Laurence Tribe. Paul Stephan in Seizing Russian Assets gives clear arguments against forfeiture legality, but at the same time indicates that precedents are lacking. Based on arguments from both “sides” forfeiture can be construed as a grey area.
While precedent does not exist, international law may be used to justify the forfeiture of all Russian property now under seizure- numerous references are made to the UN Charter, which Russia selectively abides by. They clearly have violated the Charter. Whether or not the Charter allows for forfeiture, or only seizure, is again in question by the experts.
Another argument for- Russia’s cyberattacks on the U.S. could also point to an “act of aggression” against us, tipping the argument toward forfeiture. This would fall under U.S. law- see specifically the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) and the Trading With the Enemy Act of 1917 (TWEA), Also see the Patriot Act of 2001 and how it may affect both Acts.
Finally, and this is something I found no references to in terms of the forfeiture argument, there is the question of crimes of aggression, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide committed by Russia. When and how do these international crimes affect the legality of forfeiture of Russian assets? Perhaps it is time to set a new precedent while these crimes are being committed, rather than waiting till after the fact to sue for restitution. See Sophie Williams’ articles on DiplomaticCourier.com for some food for thought- UKRAINE’S OPTIONS FOR PROSECUTING RUSSIA, AN INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL IS NOT UKRAINE’S SOLUTION, and LESSONS FROM BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA FOR UKRAINE.
Russian Combat Losses as of 21 January, 2023
How many Russians will Putin send to die?
Russian combat losses as of 21 January, 2023
I mentioned Turkey and its importance in my last post. Here is an article originally from the Foreign Policy Research Institute that clearly states the importance of Turkey in the future of European security.
According to the Telegram channel “Find Yours”, at this point there have been nearly 38,000 Russians killed in combat in the Ukraine. This number will continue to rise, unless the Russian government, or the Russian people, come to their senses. Remember that the Soviet Union was a repressive, communist state. The Russian Federation is a repressive, oligarchic kleptocracy, and will likely become equally oppressive in due course. While there are many differences, glaring and subtle, throughout the two systems, the end result is the same. The people of Russia are servants of a corrupt dictator, to be used as he sees fit, sent of to work the fields, or to die in the fields of Ukraine.
The same Telegram channel reported the following crimes committed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine to date (translated using Google Translate):
The Office of the Prosecutor General has published updated data on the war crimes of the occupiers recorded since the beginning of the war
▪️The number of dead children increased to 347, another 646 were injured
Crimes committed by the Russian aggressors during their invasion of Ukraine, as of 07 July, 2022.
I have been reading lately about the weaponisation of water, food, and other resources. We are all familiar with the concept at this point, seeing it in use in Syria, Yemen, the Palestinian territories, and of course in Ukraine, to name a few places. Water is the last commodity, and it has more value than we can imagine. It is scarce in so many regions already, and once a crisis occurs and refugees concentrate in one location, it is only a matter of time before exploitation begins. Water and food are the most basic needs, and are easily controlled by governments and non-state actors. Water and food are now weapons in the latest iteration of hybrid warfare.
I recently read an article by Robert Legvold from the journal Foreign Policy from 1977. The title, On Power: The Nature of Soviet Power says it all. It helped put the current situation in perspective. The article mentioned interdependence many times. Back then, the Soviet Union was a relatively isolated country, and globalisation as we know it today, and thus the interdependence we have come to regret, was in what we might call its infancy (again, compared to today.) The article notes how interdependence might be used as a weapon. And now, 45 years later, witness today’s sanctions against Russia. Just one point of note.
Finally Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty reporting, though obviously having a distinct agenda, is full of background information, as well as current reporting, on the situation in Russia and Ukraine. For some background on the fall of the USSR, see the article The Undoing of the USSR: How it Happened. Here is a story about one Russians’ stand against Putin’s war.
Thanks to Russia, the world is approaching a food crisis. According to reports, they are shipping captured Ukrainian wheat out of Ukraine and into Russian held lands.
From the Telegram channel Ищи своих, translated using Google Translate:
Only 10 weeks left of world wheat stocks – UN
The depletion of cereals in the bins is a challenge to the entire world community – such a formulation was used by UN food security expert Sarah Menker.
Even if the conflict ends soon, the situation in world markets will not improve without urgent coordinated action by many countries.
All the while rubbish from the Russian propaganda machine continues to be churned out. Here is an interesting read. My take is that it sounds great- the supporters of the nazis should pay reparations to all parties harmed. Of course, since Russia is the aggressing state, and at this point they are the “nazis”, the blame falls solely on them. Also, statements from the next supreme leader, Nikolai Patrushev, are beginning to make the news:
From the Telegram channel the Center for Countering Disinformation:
#CCD_reports: the russian leadership has launched a disinformation campaign on the “right to demand reparation from countries sponsoring Nazism”
🔺patrushev stated that “russia has the right to demand reparations from the countries that sponsored the Nazis in Ukraine, as well as the Kiev regime”
🔺At the same time, the temporarily occupied territories of Luhansk and Donetsk regions “may demand compensation for all material damage over eight years of aggression, and the Ukrainian people deserve reparations from the US and Britain, for support neo-Nazis and providing them with weapons”❗️Similar theses were voiced by the speaker of the state duma volodin.
❗️The purpose of this disinformation campaign:
1⃣ substitution of the image of the aggressor in the russian-Ukrainian war in the perception of the Western world
2⃣ minimization of sanctions consequences for the russian economy at the expense of Western financial systems.
Another statement, apparently leaked, and of unconfirmed source, shows that Nikolai Patrushev may be preparing for other outcomes to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Here presumably is part of a speech to be given upon upcoming death of Putin during surgery:
It is with tremendous regret that I inform our country of the death of our great leader VVP who died bravely during abdominal surgery. To carry on the immortal mission of the great president is at this time an impossibility; no one will be able to lead the country as he did, not even myself. Therefore I now wish to inform the people of Russia of the plan to liquidate state assets, to end all military and police expenditures, and to diversify the countries’ investments through mergers, sell-offs and autonomy measures.
First we will dissolve the FSB, the police, and the military. This will begin at midnight tonight. All those currently serving in these branches of government will be sent home and given one week’s severance pay.
Next we will free all political prisoners. Alexy Navalny will become head and co-leader of the interim government along with a diverse group of businessmen and citizens.
Finally the country itself will be divided and sold off in parcels. Most of the country, all that bordering other nations such as Poland, Finland, the Baltic states, and Kazakhstan will be sold to those countries. All lands belonging to the country of Ukraine, as well as Georgia and Moldova, which we have plans to occupy and to bomb into submission, will be returned and all Russian presence in those lands will end immediately.
The central part of the country will be sold to Elon Musk for some 40B American dollars, equaling in value his proposed purchase of Twitter. Nothing will change in the central state sell-off once Musk takes over control, other than the Kremlin being turned over to him in its entirety to be used as a summer home and Twitter-Europe headquarters. Also Moscow will be renamed “Muskow”. Otherwise, no changes.
Proceeds from the sale of the country will be paid to Ukraine for rebuilding and as reparations for the destruction of the country, murder of its citizens, and war crimes committed by Russia against them.
Remaining funds, as well as some state assets still held, will be disbursed amongst every single Russian citizen- adults 16 years of age and up will receive a stipend of 100 rubles, 10 packs of Belomorkanal cigarettes, and 3 loaves of bread. Children under the age of 16 will receive 75 rubles and 3 packs of Belomorkanal cigarettes.
Be careful what you believe; anyone can create any storyline they care to.
Back to facts, Russians continue to die at Putin’s whim. There are however entire units that are refusing to fight- search for Donetsk People’s Republic, or DPR army 4th Infantry Battalion of the 107th Regiment. They have apparently refused to fight for a “foreign republic” – the Luhansk People’s Republic, or LPR.
Russian combat losses as of 25 May, 2022
Points of note for today:
- Aljazeera reports first war crimes trail of Russian soldier will begin.
- Also causing a stir with Russia, Finland will join NATO, with Sweden likely to follow within days.
- UKRINFORM website reports Russia has used about 70% of its arsenal of high-precision missiles.
- The same site reports that Russia is unable to fully restore the combat capability of military units withdrawn from Ukraine.
- Add Bulgaria to the list of countries to keep an eye on as another Putin apologist, a former Bulgarian presidential advisor, works to destabilise Bulgaria and in crease support of Russia.
Finally, while we would like to believe that all large, multi-national companies are supporting Ukraine and have left Russia, this is not the case. Companies such as Nestle, MARS, Danone, Procter & Gamble, Philip Morris, and PepsiCo to name a few, are still doing business in Russia to one degree or another- still selling products, selling a limited range of products, and paying employees (and therefore taxes to the Russian government).
The following is reposted from the Telegram channel Center for Countering Disinformation, 11-12 May, 2022:
Russia as a terrorist state-
Given the beginning of Western countries’ recognition of Russia as a terrorist state, it is necessary to inform about the consequences of such a decision for it
- A state sponsor of terrorism is a country that, in accordance with the official position of the US State Department, provides support for acts of international terrorism.
- 10.05.2022 – Lithuania recognizes Russia as a terrorist country. The Lithuanian Seimas has adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a terrorist state.
- 10.05.2022 – the US Senate registered a resolution recognizing Russia as a sponsor of terrorism.
Inclusion on such a list entails severe economic and political sanctions, including:
- ban on arms supplies (export and sale)
- control over the export of dual-use goods
- ban on economic aid
- various financial and other restrictions
Baltic States deny Russian propaganda victory-
Russian propaganda claims that the campaign launched by the governments of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to recognize Russia as an aggressor country is not supported by the Russian-speaking population of these countries
But the kremlin’s hopes of using Russian-speaking minorities to justify the special operation proved futile.
🔺On April 21, the parliamentarians of Estonia and Latvia recognized the Russian actions as genocide of the Ukrainian people
🔺Latvian opposition Harmony party, which represents the interests of Russian-born voters, unanimously condemned the aggression
🔺Estonian faction of the Centrist Party, based on the Russian-speaking electorate, signed a statement in support of Ukraine
🔺Lithuanian parliamentarians unanimously adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a state that supports and commits terrorism
🔺According to a survey conducted by the Baltic agency SKDS, 68% of Russian-speaking respondents support Ukraine, take part in actions in support of Ukraine and help refugees.
Russian combat losses as of 12 May, 2022
From Solzhenitsyn’s The Gulag Archipelago, a concise description of the Soviet, and in large part post-Soviet mind, from the opening lines of chapter 8:
We forget everything. What we remember is not what actually happened, not history, but merely that hackneyed dotted line that they have chosen to drive into our memories by incessant hammering.
Moving to other parts of eastern Europe, there are many countries that are subject to the same forces. We must pay attention- individually and as governments, to Viktor Orban in Hungary, Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus, to Dodic in Republica Srbska, and Vučić in Serbia. Let’s add in Erdoğan in Turkey as well. These leaders do not complete the list; there are countless others working under, for and against all of them, and in so many other countries, ready to fill any power vacuum should it open up. Looking beyond Ukraine, what happens in these countries will be potentially as important for the future of Europe. Remember that the fight is not against a single ruler, but against a system, an ideology, an ignorance that corrupts individuals, families, small towns and entire countries.
Next, drones, and the future of warfare. It is clear that their effective use in Ukraine is leading to the eventual Ukrainian victory over Russia. (Clear to me at any rate; I remain optimistic that good will triumph.) The Turkish-made Bayraktur TB2 drone is one of the UAV’s that is in use. It has a cost of 5 million USD each, and has a wide range of uses, has an 18,000 feet operational altitude, 27 hours maximum airtime, a payload capacity of 150 kg, a range of 300 kilometers, and carries 4 laser guided munitions. This is a multi-use drone.
The U.S.-made AeroEnvironment Switchblade 600 is an entirely different type of drone, costing only 6000 USD each. It’s range is 40 kilometers, flight time is 40 minutes, and it carries one anti-armor warhead. It is proving to be highly lethal, and worth every penny.
The use of drones is morally questionable to some. A paper from September of 2020 addressing the question is Drones and War: The Impact of Advancement in Military Technology on Just War Theory and the International Law of Armed Conflict. To summarise the arguments made in the paper, the use of drones creates a power disparity, knowledge disparity, and their precision creates another level of disparity- drones create an extreme asymmetry in warfare, and thus make their use immoral.
I counter the argument with this: if you are defending your sovereign, peaceful nation which has been invaded by aggressors that indiscriminately kill, commit war crimes with no fear of retribution, disregard the Geneva Convention and the rules of modern war, you have every right and indeed an obligation to defend against and destroy your enemy with weapons that do so with precision, accuracy, and immediate effect.
If you would like to read more about how modern conflicts are approached by countries who attempt to maintain the moral high ground, the International Committee for the Red Cross has just released a handbook for commanders and staff in partnered military operations. A partial description of the book from the ICRC page reads:
The handbook offers planning and decision-making considerations for avoiding or lessening adverse humanitarian effects on civilian populations. It presents proactive, pragmatic practices to foster Law of Armed Conflict compliance by partners; to identify, avert, or mitigate potential risks to civilians; to positively influence partner behaviour; and to stimulate awareness in partners’ and own force’s behaviour and actions that can potentially harm civilians.
An electronic copy of Preventing Civilian Harm in Partnered Military Operations: A Commander’s Handbook can be downloaded by clicking the linked.
Lies, Losses, and the Long Road Ahead
30 April 2022
I often wonder these days if I should even make the effort to repost and refute Russian propaganda lies. One thing should be perfectly clear, for anyone who has eyes to see- every single word, phrase, statement that comes out of Russia is a lie, pure propaganda, and should only be taken for its value as a piece of propaganda to be added to all the rest in order to arrive at some shred of truth (most often the exact opposite of what is being stated.)
Remember this- dictatorships, authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, and the Russian mafia state all have a common leadership style- that of maintaining an unstable society, a society of division and shortages, through terror and fear, in order to legitimise and necessitate their rule.
Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, their war crimes and crimes against humanity there, there inciting of anti-state, pro-Russian aggression in Ukraine and Moldova, and their desires in Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia and elsewhere, along with their threats of nuclear war should be keeping the world awake at night. These facts should be prompting world leaders to do much more than they are doing. We are faced with an existential threat- our very lives are at stake. The lives of everyone living, and for many generations ahead, hang in the balance. Every possible action that can be taken against Russia, Russian interests, Russian partners- any country with ties to Russia must be taken.
Putin must fall, the Russian state must fail, the Russian people must be freed. Only then will Ukraine and the rest of the world be safe again.
On to Russian combat losses for today. The following comes from the Telegram channel The Center for Countering Disinformation.
Russian combat losses as of 30 April 2022
From the same Telegram channel, the morning’s Fake/Fact post:
❌Despite the position of Western countries on the inadmissibility of nuclear blackmail and the prevention of nuclear war, russian foreign minister lavrov said that russia will never flirt with the topic of nuclear war, Zelensky spoke about it in Munich
🔻Caution: it’s a fake!❌russia’s propaganda continues to spread the thesis of the return of peaceful life in the territories temporarily occupied by the russian army. Thus, the russian ambassador to the US officially stated that a peaceful life is being established in the territories liberated from the Nazis
🔻Caution: it’s a disinformation!❌russia continues to influence the world community. In particular, in an interview with the Chinese news agency Xinhua, Lavrov said that the russian military in Ukraine does everything to avoid casualties among the civilian population
🔻Caution: it’s a manipulation!
Ukraine Update- 22 April, 2022- Spreading Conflict, Saber Rattling, Ignorance, and War Crimes
22 April 2022
Another day of war, and all indications are that this is only the beginning. But then I am an eternal skeptic.
According to an MSN.com article from this morning, Putin and his mouthpieces are still talking about a greater war… with Europe and the world. The quote in the article that caught my attention was this one, by television presenter and staunch Putin supporter Vladimir Solovyov:
“When this operation concludes, NATO will have to ask itself: ‘Do we have what we need to defend ourselves? Do we have the people to defend ourselves?’ And there will be no mercy. There will be no mercy,” he said.
I will counter that statement with two numbers- 4,173 and 13,247. The first is the total number of Russian military aircraft (before they began their war of aggression- it is decidedly lower at this point), and the second is the total number of US military aircraft. (Number are from the website GlobalFirepower.com.) Just US military alone. This does not includes NATO or other allies. Russia may want to rethink its belligerence, rhetoric, and rather saber rattling. Reference the NATO airwar in Kosovo and operations in Serbia in teh late 1990’s if there is any doubt. Bottom line- if Russia pushes the world into war, most of the suffering will be on their side.
Next, from the BBC this morning- there is growing evidence for Russian war crimes, specifically in Bucha where the headlines spoke of 50 of the bodies from mass graves there being identified, with another 300-400 yet to be identified. The BBC.com article Mass Graves Near Mariupol talks about war crimes in Mariupol, with mass graves being identified there. A Reuters article from today confirms the growing evidence for war crimes, outlined in an interview with U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) Michelle Bachelet.
Finally, Russian combat losses continue to mount. The question is, how long can Putin continue to send Russian sons, husbands, fathers, and uncles to be killed? And more importantly, how long will the Russian people continue to allow it?
It is time for the Russian people to summon some courage and make change happen in their country. If they need an example of what courage is- perhaps they have forgotten- they only need look towards Ukraine.
Russian combat losses as of 22 April, 2022
As Russian combat losses continue to mount, there are claims that Ukrainian marines have surrendered, and of torture of captured Russian soldiers. Beware of disinformation! These claims may be a sign of desperation on the part of Russia. When all other tactics of the aggressor fail, that is, when wholesale destruction of cities and the murder of citizens no longer seems to be working, Russia can always fall back on using the rules of war, and rule of law to get attention by displacing blame from the aggressor to the victim.
Beware any information coming out of Russia, no matter what the source!
Russian combat losses as of 13 April, 2022
You can help the people of Ukraine by donating to World Central Kitchen. They were helping feed victims of Russian aggression in Kramatorsk during the Russian missile attack. You can see tweets and a video from Kramatorsk here.
I wake every morning these days wondering what madness the day has in store. News from Ukraine is of course at the top, and today there is talk of tens of thousands killed in Mariupol, of a new Russian offensive, and war crimes. Russia seems set on continuing to murder Ukrainians, as well as sending their own citizens to be slaughtered. More war means, if the past weeks are any indication, more war crimes. That is the immediate, and then there is the trickle down- rising prices, food shortages, gas shortages, and a growing sense of fear of tomorrow, world wide. Oh, brave new world, that has such people in it!
Ivo Daalder and James Lindsay, in their recent Foreign Policy article, warn against our focus changing from “restoring Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence to a policy of active regime change in Russia.” My opinion, as always: unrelenting and increasing pressure on Russia, from all sides, in all possible forms (short of all-out third world war.) If this means regime change, and I hope it does, then so be it. It is either now, when the scene is set, or later when it will cost even more. We are only putting off the inevitable. Russia will someday fall; it is only a matter of when.
Some numbers, for perspective- in Russia there are approximately:
- 146,000,000 people
- 850,000 active duty military personnel
- 250,000 national guard troops
- 75,000 FSB “officers”
- 750,000 regular police
There are clearly more citizens than FSB, police, and military. And how many of those paid by the state would, in the end, side with the people? Always a question when a coup might be on the horizon.
In the meantime, Russian combat losses continue to increase.
Russian combat losses as of 11 April, 2022 from the Telegram channel Center for Countering Disinformation.
We are all aware at this point, we have all seen the images and footage of the war crimes (link reposted from Telegram channel Інтернет Війська України) committed by Russians in the city of Bucha, Irpin, Gostomel, and elsewhere. What more can I say? Putin and the Russian army are now perpetuating crimes against humanity on the citizens of Ukraine, not to mention killing their own soldiers- over 18,000 so far. The world must take action, and it seems to be, according to the live blog at Aljazeera.
A side note is that demonstrations in Georgia in support of Ukraine clearly show that not everyone in all countries occupied by Russia will sit idly by. Also take note of Bosnia and Kosovo asking for NATO membership out of fear of what the future may hold. My opinion- they should be granted membership, along with Finland and Sweden, immediately. Not too subtle, but then there is nothing subtle in the “tactics” of Russia either.
And let’s not forget, that what is happening in Ukraine is still fresh in the minds of many Bosnians. How quickly we forget the lessons of history.
Russian combat losses as of 05 April 2022- Putin’s murder of his own citizens.
At Five AM 