I mentioned Turkey and its importance in my last post. Here is an article originally from the Foreign Policy Research Institute that clearly states the importance of Turkey in the future of European security.
According to the Telegram channel “Find Yours”, at this point there have been nearly 38,000 Russians killed in combat in the Ukraine. This number will continue to rise, unless the Russian government, or the Russian people, come to their senses. Remember that the Soviet Union was a repressive, communist state. The Russian Federation is a repressive, oligarchic kleptocracy, and will likely become equally oppressive in due course. While there are many differences, glaring and subtle, throughout the two systems, the end result is the same. The people of Russia are servants of a corrupt dictator, to be used as he sees fit, sent of to work the fields, or to die in the fields of Ukraine.
The same Telegram channel reported the following crimes committed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine to date (translated using Google Translate):
The Office of the Prosecutor General has published updated data on the war crimes of the occupiers recorded since the beginning of the war
▪️The number of dead children increased to 347, another 646 were injured
I have been reading lately about the weaponisation of water, food, and other resources. We are all familiar with the concept at this point, seeing it in use in Syria, Yemen, the Palestinian territories, and of course in Ukraine, to name a few places. Water is the last commodity, and it has more value than we can imagine. It is scarce in so many regions already, and once a crisis occurs and refugees concentrate in one location, it is only a matter of time before exploitation begins. Water and food are the most basic needs, and are easily controlled by governments and non-state actors. Water and food are now weapons in the latest iteration of hybrid warfare.
I recently read an article by Robert Legvold from the journal Foreign Policy from 1977. The title, On Power: The Nature of Soviet Power says it all. It helped put the current situation in perspective. The article mentioned interdependence many times. Back then, the Soviet Union was a relatively isolated country, and globalisation as we know it today, and thus the interdependence we have come to regret, was in what we might call its infancy (again, compared to today.) The article notes how interdependence might be used as a weapon. And now, 45 years later, witness today’s sanctions against Russia. Just one point of note.
Finally Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty reporting, though obviously having a distinct agenda, is full of background information, as well as current reporting, on the situation in Russia and Ukraine. For some background on the fall of the USSR, see the article The Undoing of the USSR: How it Happened. Here is a story about one Russians’ stand against Putin’s war.
So much has happened during this last month- I have been disappearing into the desert alone for long periods, necessary for my sanity.
As of today some 35,600 Russian soldiers have been murdered by the Russian madman that claims to be the leader of that country. Way to go Putin, digging your own grave.
This week’s news alone holds so much positive information. The Ukrainians continue to defend, hold out, regain, and defeat the Russian army. The Russians continue to act in desperation, using soviet-era stock to try and win an unwinnable war, and preparing more of their young people to die, even as their financial reserves dwindle and so much of the world stands against them. The US is sending more money and weapons to Ukraine, as are other countries. Support for the defenders of Ukraine grows, as more and more people realise that this is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a war between Russia and Europe, if not between Russia and the entire free world.
Turkey has agreed to NATO membership of Finland and Sweden- this is huge. Turkey is certainly a country to watch, a wild card in the mix if you will. But this ups their status tremendously. We will see how Erdogan’s posturing over the last month or so pays off for his image. So far it looks like he played his hand well.
I have noticed a lot of references to the Cold War, and our return to the Cold War. I think it should be very clear at this point that what we face will be nothing like the Cold War. We are so far removed from those days, and we will never return there. The current situation is much worse for many more countries and parts of the world. Globalisation has made us all far more dependent on each other than we were even 30 years ago when the Cold War ended. Resources and products can come from the other side of the world, and any disruption is felt like never before. That combined with population increases, climate change, world fiscal instability, the pandemic exacerbating all of it, and most important of all is the fact that nuclear weapons abound with many of them held by less than responsible nations- especially Russia. All of this puts us in a place we have never been, in a completely new paradigm.
A reminder too, that Ukraine and Russia should not be our primary focus. We must not forget about other eastern European countries that are ripe for the picking so to speak. Keep a close eye on Hungary, Serbia (as well as Bosnia and Republika Srbska), Belarus, and the other non-NATO or non-EU countries that Russia or their satellites have had an eye on. These countries, if Putin had his way, would be the next to fall. They are in no way out of danger.
Thanks to Russia, the world is approaching a food crisis. According to reports, they are shipping captured Ukrainian wheat out of Ukraine and into Russian held lands.
From the Telegram channel Ищи своих, translated using Google Translate:
Only 10 weeks left of world wheat stocks – UN
The depletion of cereals in the bins is a challenge to the entire world community – such a formulation was used by UN food security expert Sarah Menker.
Even if the conflict ends soon, the situation in world markets will not improve without urgent coordinated action by many countries.
All the while rubbish from the Russian propaganda machine continues to be churned out. Here is an interesting read. My take is that it sounds great- the supporters of the nazis should pay reparations to all parties harmed. Of course, since Russia is the aggressing state, and at this point they are the “nazis”, the blame falls solely on them. Also, statements from the next supreme leader, Nikolai Patrushev, are beginning to make the news:
From the Telegram channel the Center for Countering Disinformation:
#CCD_reports: the russian leadership has launched a disinformation campaign on the “right to demand reparation from countries sponsoring Nazism”
🔺patrushev stated that “russia has the right to demand reparations from the countries that sponsored the Nazis in Ukraine, as well as the Kiev regime”
🔺At the same time, the temporarily occupied territories of Luhansk and Donetsk regions “may demand compensation for all material damage over eight years of aggression, and the Ukrainian people deserve reparations from the US and Britain, for support neo-Nazis and providing them with weapons”❗️Similar theses were voiced by the speaker of the state duma volodin.
❗️The purpose of this disinformation campaign:
1⃣ substitution of the image of the aggressor in the russian-Ukrainian war in the perception of the Western world
2⃣ minimization of sanctions consequences for the russian economy at the expense of Western financial systems.
Another statement, apparently leaked, and of unconfirmed source, shows that Nikolai Patrushev may be preparing for other outcomes to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Here presumably is part of a speech to be given upon upcoming death of Putin during surgery:
It is with tremendous regret that I inform our country of the death of our great leader VVP who died bravely during abdominal surgery. To carry on the immortal mission of the great president is at this time an impossibility; no one will be able to lead the country as he did, not even myself. Therefore I now wish to inform the people of Russia of the plan to liquidate state assets, to end all military and police expenditures, and to diversify the countries’ investments through mergers, sell-offs and autonomy measures.
First we will dissolve the FSB, the police, and the military. This will begin at midnight tonight. All those currently serving in these branches of government will be sent home and given one week’s severance pay.
Next we will free all political prisoners. Alexy Navalny will become head and co-leader of the interim government along with a diverse group of businessmen and citizens.
Finally the country itself will be divided and sold off in parcels. Most of the country, all that bordering other nations such as Poland, Finland, the Baltic states, and Kazakhstan will be sold to those countries. All lands belonging to the country of Ukraine, as well as Georgia and Moldova, which we have plans to occupy and to bomb into submission, will be returned and all Russian presence in those lands will end immediately.
The central part of the country will be sold to Elon Musk for some 40B American dollars, equaling in value his proposed purchase of Twitter. Nothing will change in the central state sell-off once Musk takes over control, other than the Kremlin being turned over to him in its entirety to be used as a summer home and Twitter-Europe headquarters. Also Moscow will be renamed “Muskow”. Otherwise, no changes.
Proceeds from the sale of the country will be paid to Ukraine for rebuilding and as reparations for the destruction of the country, murder of its citizens, and war crimes committed by Russia against them.
Remaining funds, as well as some state assets still held, will be disbursed amongst every single Russian citizen- adults 16 years of age and up will receive a stipend of 100 rubles, 10 packs of Belomorkanal cigarettes, and 3 loaves of bread. Children under the age of 16 will receive 75 rubles and 3 packs of Belomorkanal cigarettes.
Be careful what you believe; anyone can create any storyline they care to.
Back to facts, Russians continue to die at Putin’s whim. There are however entire units that are refusing to fight- search for Donetsk People’s Republic, or DPR army 4th Infantry Battalion of the 107th Regiment. They have apparently refused to fight for a “foreign republic” – the Luhansk People’s Republic, or LPR.
The people of Russia, if they want to be free from the tyranny they now suffer…
must arm themselves as best they can (rifles, revolvers, bombs, knives, knuckle-dusters, sticks, rags soaked in kerosene for starting fires, ropes or rope ladders, shovels for building barricades, pyroxylin cartridges, barbed wire, nails [against cavalry], etc., etc.)…. Select leaders or officers… work out signals… calls or whistles so that the comrades recognise one another in a crowd; previously arranged signals in the event of meetings at night, etc., etc…. Get weapons by attacking… a policemen, stray Cossacks… and seizing their arms… fight by getting on to the roofs or upper storeys of houses, etc., and showering stones or pouring boiling water on the troops, etc.
There is more, much more. Curious about the source? A bit of irony here- it is from Lenin’s Tasks of Revolutionary Army Contingents, written in 1905. I suppose it applies just as much today, to try and get out of this mess, as it did when Russians used the tactics to get themselves into it!
On to NATO:
Turkey on Finland and Sweden joining NATO, from the Telegram channel ….
The President of Turkey discussed with the leaders of Finland and Sweden their accession to NATO.
Erdogan demanded from Sweden to take action against organizations that Ankara considers terrorist, in particular regarding the PKK. And also to lift the embargo on the export of weapons imposed on Turkey due to the military operation against the Kurds.
Finnish President Niinistö called the conversation with Erdogan “open and direct”: “As NATO allies, Finland and Turkey will assume obligations to ensure each other’s security, and therefore our relations will become stronger. Finland condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. The close dialogue continues.”
Sounds better than last week when the “news” would have us believe that Turkey was set against their joining.
If you are so inclined, Brookings hosted an event with the ambassadors of Finland and Sweden to the US this week, which is available to watch online- Finland, Sweden, and the future of NATO. The event was very informative, reinforcing for me a lot of what I already understood about the capabilities of both countries. I would stress that both countries are highly prepared to join NATO. Their spending levels meet or exceed the NATO member country requirements. Their armaments, preparedness, and ability to integrate with NATO cannot to be questioned.
One reason for their defensive capabilities is that both countries have a security posture called “total defense.” This means that they are prepared on all levels to defend their countries- from maintaining a strong posture in order to deter any threats, to fighting in defense if necessary, to the creation of resistance movements if areas of the country are occupied. This posture is visible throughout all levels of society- the entire population, business, infrastructure- everyone and everything is a part of the nations’ defenses. Look to Ukraine’s current posture, and success, and you will see total defense in action. Point of note, the Baltic countries and Poland also practice a total defense posture.
Here is an article at Overtdefense.com from June, 2021 outlining Ukraine’s total defense policy, and explaining why it can be so effective.
For more on the current status of NATO in general, and its decline in defensive ability since the end of the Cold War, see the paper by Anthony W. Cordesman and Grace Hwang, The Ukraine War: Preparing for the Longer-term Outcome. It is another very informative piece, which stresses the need for immediate and massive upgrades in NATO as a whole if it is to be a capable force. My takeaway from it: the Ukraine war has given NATO the best reference point it is going to get in relation to accuracy in planning for future threats from Russia. The Ukraine war is a wake-up call for NATO to asses its capabilities and implement changes across the board, immediatley.
Finally, Putin continues to murder his own citizens:
“Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” The words of Winston Churchill, which need to be considered to fully understand the predicament the world is in today, the possible futures before us, and the requirements of western nations, emerging democracies, and authoritarian regimes alike. We have essentially two choices: to work towards equity, justice, democracy, freedom, and liberty. Or to work towards the opposite, the path of the pathological, authoritarian, megalomaniac “leading” Russia. Remember, there has never been a perfect political system, just as there has never been peace. Both are idealised parts of a long dreamt of world, that at best is what we strive for, work towards, never lose hope of attaining. At worst they are, and will remain, fantasies, illusions, and far-off dreams.
Another quote summarises the Russian state. From Foreign Affairs magazine May/June 2022 issue, in the article Putin Unbound by Daniel Treisman,
“Russia is a brutally repressive police state run by a small group of hard-liners who have imposed ever-harsher policies both at home and abroad.”
Governments are at work, militaries are at work, Finland and Sweden have made their decisions, but what can the rest of us do? The simplest thing that anyone can do is to donate to help Ukraine. See the links in the upper right of this post. Not everyone can do that, so next is to fight against disinformation and help spread the truth- pass on verified information to as many people as possible within your networks. This is not just a battle against disinformation being fought against Russia- it has just as many proponents worldwide, and within our own country. (What a sad state our democracy has fallen to!) Finally, contact your representatives and let them know we need to do more for Ukraine- more food, medicine, weapons, more sanctions against Russia, and more support for NATO and Europe.
In an article in the Wall Street Journal from last weekend, Putin Drives Finland Into NATO’s Arms, there is a quote by a 78-year-old amateur historian that stands out,
What Stalin forgot, and what Putin is forgetting now, is that if you fight for your own home, it makes the difference.
The reference here is to the Winter War of 1939-1940 where Finnish fighters did the same to Russian forces as Ukrainians are doing now- cutting them off, destroying their morale, destroying their forces, and eventually driving them out. The people of Finland were brave in 1939-1940, as they were last week in joining NATO. The people of Ukraine are brave. They are standing up for the world and they deserve our help.
The same article outlines the very prudent preparations that Finland has been making on their own over many, many years. These range from defense spending almost meeting NATO requirements, to upgrading and training with equipment that will integrate immediately with that used by NATO, to building a series of underground tunnels and shelters that will house up to 70% of the population, while stockpiling food, fuel and medicine. Finland sets an example for all other countries to follow.
Since this seems to be a post full of quotes, I will end with one more. “Budschego net“- Russian for “no future.” This I learned from Masha Gessen’s similarly titled book, The Future is History. It is a commonly held and expressed sentiment in the… former Soviet Union, or today’s Russia, and says it all.
If by some stretch of the imagination someone in Russia reads this post, know that the future has not been cancelled entirely. The future is up to you. Be brave like the people of Ukraine and stand up to your government. You may suffer, and you may die. But Russians will continue to die every day until they stand together against their own tyranny.
The Russian Police State, World Central Kitchen, Russian Losses Updated, and Is the West Doing Enough?
16 May 2022
My comments for the day begin thus: Russians are falling perfectly into step with the oppressive, authoritarian state, and state sanctioned lies. The propaganda fed to them by the brutal, murderous state is not questioned; the subjects take it as gospel truth, as good Soviet (Putinist) citizens should. The work of the KGB (FSB) makes sure that fear rules that country; anyone speaking out in any way is subject to arrest as a foreign agent, with 15 years ahead of them. If this is not history repeating itself, then I don’t know what is. See Solzhenitsyn’s The Gulag Archipelago, as I seem to be repeating in blog after blog. All of this just happened, and there are still people alive who saw it and lived it the last time.
Are we doing enough? From the Telegram channel Ищи своих, from 15 May, 2022 (translated using Google Translate):
West not doing enough to unseat Putin, Iranian analyst
“Regime change in any situation, be it in Russia, Iran or North Korea, will not be possible without the intervention of an internal factor or the people.”
Amir Taheri is sure: “Putin believes that the war in Ukraine will eventually be the first step towards the “Russification” of Europe. It is important to help the Russian people understand that Putin wants to go in the opposite direction of history and bring Russia to war with all of Europe.”
There you have it. We are not doing enough- the US, Europe, the rest of the world. My immediate list- more opinions on my part- on what should be done:
- Every penny that is in any way traced back to Russia should immediately go into a fund for the eventual rebuilding of Ukraine, or for the fight against Russia right now
- Every Russian unit, every single soldier being held by Ukraine who was anywhere near the scene of any war crimes should be questioned, and if evidence indicates, put on trial immediately. The trials should be swift and just, more in keeping with Nuremberg- a year and half and they were completed. Not like the ICTY trials, and those still underway, in Bosnia- 30 years after the fact!
- Every last resource available to us, those of us outside of Russia, should be used to bring Putin and his regime down- economic means, cyber warfare, sanctions against Russia and sanctions against US companies and multi-nationals who still do business in Russia (these in place until they leave Russia for good), and finally good old fashioned subversion and psyops (psychological operations)- getting alternative information- truth, into Russia through radio, TV, social media, and even in print. Spreading accurate information in a closed society is a form of subversion. Subversion is a tactic that can gain more ground psychologically than possibly any other. We see a few overt, active subversive acts going on- the firebombing of recruiting stations for example (level 3 subversion includes sabotage). These firebombings should be only the beginning.
Again, my opinions. And yes, they are harsh. But the survival of Europe as we know it, and… not to be too much of a doomsayer here, but… possibly even our SPECIES is at stake here.
Feeding the hungry in Ukraine– an update from the World Central Kitchen. They continue to feed so many people in Ukraine- 25 million meals served to date! They are always in need of donations. See the links above, right.
Russian soldiers murdered by Putin so far- fast approaching twice the number who died in Afghanistan over the course of 10 years!
I have mentioned Masha Gessen’s book, The Future is History, in a previous post. I highly recommend the book if you want to understand modern Russia, and how the current Russian mafia state grew out of the post-communist USSR. Gessen’s book will give you a clear and disturbing understanding of what went on in the background, and how Russia arrived in the present day.
Digging deeper, the word “hypernormalisation” turns up. From the Wikipedia page outlining the movie of the same name, here is the first paragraph of explanation:
The word hypernormalization was coined by Alexei Yurchak, a professor of anthropology who was born in Leningrad and later went to teach in the United States. He introduced the word in his book Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More: The Last Soviet Generation (2006), which describes paradoxes of Soviet life during the 1970s and 1980s.[3][4] He says that everyone in the Soviet Union knew the system was failing, but no one could imagine an alternative to the status quo, and politicians and citizens alike were resigned to maintaining the pretense of a functioning society.[5] Over time, this delusion became a self-fulfilling prophecy and the fakeness was accepted by everyone as real, an effect that Yurchak termed hypernormalisation.[6]
The bold italics are my own, to emphasise in less than two sentences where the new Russia comes from. It is a creation, a societal delusion in the 1970’s and 1980’s that was enforced by a feat of advertising and theatre from the 1990’s onward; it is a monumental hoax perpetrated on 150 million people. (And not just on Russia- to be fair we cannot leave out the rest of the world. Having survived Trump’s attempt at creating the same in the U.S.- this time- we are not very far off. The question is, can we survive it again?) As a side note, the documentary Hypernormalisation, begins in New York in 1975, with Donald Trump.
If you have a free two hours, you can watch the BBC documentary on youtube here: Hypernormalisation by Adam Curtis.
For more on one of the minds behind the creation of Putin, and the latest iteration of the Russian delusion, you can read about Vladislav Surkov on wikipedia. To summarise, he (probably) served on the GRU intelligence staff, studied theatre direction, and worked in advertising and public relations for some very influential Russians. He is credited with creating Putin’s image, he is an expert at doublespeak, and seems to have perfected the mobile truth that characterises the Russia of the past 60 years or so.
A prime example, Surkov is one of those who claims “there is no Ukraine,” and backs it up with fiction, lies, conspiracies, and historical revision, feeding it to a gullible, depressed, confused, and beaten Russian populace. And thus we arrive at the present day.
A final note on this post- please do not take any of this as the gospel truth. It is information that is available on the internet. Hypernormalisation, the documentary… borders on the conspiratorial… crosses the line in fact, here and there. Take everything with a grain of salt, and do your own digging. My personal philosophy on information I receive- even that which I see with my own eyes- vacillates between “trust but verify” and “never trust anyone.” Proceed with caution.
Lies, Losses, and the Long Road Ahead
30 April 2022
I often wonder these days if I should even make the effort to repost and refute Russian propaganda lies. One thing should be perfectly clear, for anyone who has eyes to see- every single word, phrase, statement that comes out of Russia is a lie, pure propaganda, and should only be taken for its value as a piece of propaganda to be added to all the rest in order to arrive at some shred of truth (most often the exact opposite of what is being stated.)
Remember this- dictatorships, authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, and the Russian mafia state all have a common leadership style- that of maintaining an unstable society, a society of division and shortages, through terror and fear, in order to legitimise and necessitate their rule.
Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, their war crimes and crimes against humanity there, there inciting of anti-state, pro-Russian aggression in Ukraine and Moldova, and their desires in Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia and elsewhere, along with their threats of nuclear war should be keeping the world awake at night. These facts should be prompting world leaders to do much more than they are doing. We are faced with an existential threat- our very lives are at stake. The lives of everyone living, and for many generations ahead, hang in the balance. Every possible action that can be taken against Russia, Russian interests, Russian partners- any country with ties to Russia must be taken.
Putin must fall, the Russian state must fail, the Russian people must be freed. Only then will Ukraine and the rest of the world be safe again.
On to Russian combat losses for today. The following comes from the Telegram channel The Center for Countering Disinformation.
From the same Telegram channel, the morning’s Fake/Fact post:
❌Despite the position of Western countries on the inadmissibility of nuclear blackmail and the prevention of nuclear war, russian foreign minister lavrov said that russia will never flirt with the topic of nuclear war, Zelensky spoke about it in Munich
🔻Caution: it’s a fake!❌russia’s propaganda continues to spread the thesis of the return of peaceful life in the territories temporarily occupied by the russian army. Thus, the russian ambassador to the US officially stated that a peaceful life is being established in the territories liberated from the Nazis
🔻Caution: it’s a disinformation!❌russia continues to influence the world community. In particular, in an interview with the Chinese news agency Xinhua, Lavrov said that the russian military in Ukraine does everything to avoid casualties among the civilian population
🔻Caution: it’s a manipulation!
I could not pass up reposting this report and its images from the Telegram channel Ищи своих. This type of “enforcement” smacks of Stalin’s methods for the purges. Back then any “infraction”, meaning in pretext whether true or fabricated, could be used against any citizen as cause for their arrest, torture, and execution.
Here is the translation through Google Translate of the original Ukrainian post:
Detentions for the blue-yellow color in Russia.
👉 In the center of Moscow, a girl was grabbed by the police for her manicure in the color of the Ukrainian flag. Two protocols were drawn up against her about allegedly discrediting the Russian army and violating the rules for holding a public event.
👉 And in Pskov, the police came to a woman who had a blue and yellow fence. They said that these colors are undesirable in the Russian Federation while the war is going on in Ukraine. The fence was forced to be repainted completely blue.