Ukraine Updates- Putin’s Demise, Orban’s Big Mouth, Czech Republic Elections, and Russian Dead

According to an interview with Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) on 24 Channel, not only is the dictator Putin’s time limited, but the the ability of Russia to continue to wage its illegal war of aggression against Ukraine is waning. There is plenty of evidence for the latter part of the statement, I just hope the first part is as true. Here are some of the main quotes form the interview as posted on the Telegram channel The Center for Countering Disinformation (part of the NSDC):

🔹 «Some events that have been in the aggressor country indicate that the russian dictator is already doomed to defeat»
🔹 «People who are in putin’s closest circle are increasingly aware that russia has no prospects of winning the war against Ukraine»
🔹 «The issue of putin in russia is almost closed. Some people have already known the name of the person who will work there after putin»
🔹 «Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities have their own assumptions about what will happen next in russia and who can become the dictator’s successor»
🔹 «Ukrainians proved on the battlefield that they are capable of defending their independence and freedom»
🔹 «Ukraine’s partner countries will not allow russia to use nuclear weapons. And the nuclear blackmail started in the kremlin won’t have any consequences»

Here is the interview posted on YouTube (in Ukrainian without subtitles.)

Hungary’s Viktor Orban is at it again, acting as a puppet should, following Putin’s lead and stirring up trouble in the EU with disparaging remarks about Ukraine and threats of vetoes when it comes to sanctioning Russian energy. Not surprising at all. If only Orban could be replaced by a better candidate, as it seems the Czech Republic has chosen to do.  In elections there, former general Petr Pavel has beaten the billionaire Andrej Babis in the presidential election.

Comments on Russian “news and information”- remember that all “information” coming from Russia, out of Russia, via Russian sources is suspect,  tendentious, questionable to say the least, and in large part just lies. Manipulation of news and information is part of hybrid warfare and Russia is deep into it, though most of it seems targeted for a Russian audience, as anyone outside of the country with access to other sources will see right through the web of disinformation, propaganda, and in some cases downright humorous attempts at manipulation of facts that Russia passes off internally as news.

From the ISW website, see today’s RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT. From that assessment, comments on front-line Russian milbloggers and information control:

The Russian military command may also be attempting to resurrect its previously unsuccessful censorship efforts targeting the critical milblogger community.ISW previously reported that the Russian MoD conducted several unsuccessful attempts to promote self-censorship among milbloggers from different nationalist factions—including Wagner-affiliated milbloggers—in summer and fall 2022.[26] Russian military command also previously attempted to promote self-censorship among milbloggers by pushing the narrative that Russian milbloggers have been violating Russian operational security by uploading combat footage or revealing Russian positions online.[27] It is unclear if Russian President Vladimir Putin is supporting these restrictions given that he had been appeasing pro-war milbloggers by meeting with them, allowing them to autonomously operate on the frontlines, and tolerating their criticisms.[28] The Kremlin is also continuing to integrate some select milbloggers by offering to let them host TV shows on Russian state broadcasters.[29] The Russian MoD may be conducting its own line of effort to silence the milbloggers independent of Putin. ISW will continue to monitor to see if Putin overrules the Russian MoD’s efforts to silence milbloggers.

The Russian military command is likely attempting to restrict milbloggers’ frontline coverage to regain control over the Russian information space ahead of a possible new offensive. Alexander Kots—a member of the Russian Human Rights Commission under Russian President Vladimir Putin and a prominent milblogger—stated that there are rumors that Russian authorities will require war correspondents to wear bright blue press vests to identify themselves as journalists in the combat zone.[20] Kots and other milbloggers criticized the rumored decision, claiming that high-visibility vests will only help Ukrainian forces deliberately target war correspondents embedded in Russian units.[21] Some milbloggers even admitted that they have been hiding their “PRESS” labels for years and noted that this allowed hundreds of war correspondents to independently work on the frontlines without anyone’s formal orders.[22] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) First Deputy Information Minister Danil Bezsonov also argued that generals who are introducing these regulations should be responsible for each war correspondent’s death after making them an easily visible target on the ground.[23] One milblogger accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of deliberately introducing new bureaucratic requirements that will limit the milbloggers’ ability to operate on the frontlines.[24]

Finally, an update on Russian combat losses from the Ukrinform website clearly shows increasing daily numbers of Russian casualties. Since hitting the 100,000 mark about a month back, the number of dead Russian soldiers has increased by 25,000. That is 25,000 Russian “soldiers”… some soldiers, Wagner mercenaries/criminals, and conscripted students, workers, peasants, and aged fathers and grandfathers killed in about one month. But they are replaceable- according to today’s ISW assessment, Putin is issuing pardons for criminals willing to fight in Ukraine, and has also stated that conscription age will not change in the spring conscription cycle (at least not until reporting day gets closer.)

Russian combat losses as of 28 January, 2023

Ukraine Updates 08 January, 2023- Recommended Reading

The war in Ukraine continues, with unflagging bravery and fortitude on the part of the defenders, and the support of the free world.  This is the way it should remain, until the end- that being Russia’s surrender, return of all Ukrainian territory, and withdrawal.  We- the US, Europe, NATO, our allies, should not waver in our support. We should increase our physical support, and increase our “non-kinetic” pressures against the Russian mafia state (sanctions, denial of services, aid to states threatened by Russia). Now, with my personal opinions out of the way, on to some of the sources of data that help shape those opinions.

A recent RAND paper, from 20 December, 2022, Responding to a Limited Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War discusses possible scenarios that a limited attack against NATO or European targets by Russia might entail, what might provoke such an attack, and the range of response and retaliation options that we have. The RAND paper notes the need for the US, NATO, and Europe to have this response matrix ready now in the event that Russia initiates such an attack, and notes that increasing desperation on their part might increase the possibility an attack occurring.

From the Diplomatic Courier from 14 December, 2022- RUSSIA RISKS LOSING ARMENIA AS AN ALLY– Russia further isolates itself from its neighbor and CTSO ally through inaction regarding the Azerbaijan- Armenia conflict. Armenia seeks help from France on resolving the conflict, and close ties to Europe and the US in its choice to promote freedom and democracy in the country.

From Ukrinform, from 07 January, 2023- “Belarus is being occupied by military forces that are stationed at training grounds, most likely for a long time. And there will be no future for Belarus as an independent country,” say Oleksandr Pavliuk, Commander of Kyiv Defense Forces. The story is here- Belarus has no future as independent country- Kyiv Defense Commander

If you have the time or inclination, some light reading- Russian ‘Hybrid Warfare’ and the Annexation of Crimea; The Modern Application of Soviet Political Warfare by Kent DeBenedictis, is available at Bloomsbury.com.

Another work that will prove informative is Putin’s Preventive Counter-Revolution; Post-Soviet Authoritarianism and the Spectre of Velvet Revolution, By Robert Horvath. It was published in 2014 and is available at Routledge.com.  I have both books on order, and would like to point out that I am in no way affiliated with or do I receive any remuneration from any of the publishers or sources I cite.

From ISW, update on the war for 07 January, 2023.

Finally, Russian combat losses continue to mount:

Russian combat losses as of 08 January, 2023

A New Year; Russian Dissent, More Casualties, Opinions, and Possibilities

The beginning of another year is upon us. And what a year we have left behind, at least as unsettling as the year before, which was one of the most divisive and frightening in my life so far. 2022- war, geopolitics on a scale unknown in many years, threats of nuclear confrontation, recession, and pandemic. What has become of mankind? A question I will not answer; instead on to some news.

The latest reports from Russia, digging into them at least, reveal some dissent. Growing dissent? Perhaps. There were Putin Christmas ornaments to hang on your tree, using the noose around his neck. People in Russia- not just in Ukraine, when asked what they want for Putin for the new year- answering “death.” More fires, more firebombs, more people speaking out, leaving the country.  Maybe. We only have access to so much information. A note to any young Russian males: according to Ukrainian reports, you only have about a week left to escape after which time borders will be closed and you will be sent to the war, very likely to die. Here is my favorite part of that article:

As Reznikov (the Ukrainian Defense Minister) pointed out, the only reason Russians will be sent to fight this war is “so that you protect criminals, their palaces, their bank accounts, and become criminals yourselves.”

Regarding Russian troops, various reports state the conscripts being sent to Ukraine are responsible for their own body armor, their own uniforms, aid kits, and field equipment. This is a good sign for Ukraine, very bad for Russia and its expendable citizens being sent into the meat grinder. Ukrainian Telegram channels often highlight the “equipment” the Russians soldiers have when captured or killed: helmets marked “child’s toy- does not provide any protection.” Aid kits from World War II! Tourniquets that are nothing more than old belts and rubber straps. Field gear… from a sporting goods store.  And finally body armor that would not stop anything above a small caliber round.

In Ukraine, morale is as high as ever. But that is nothing new. They have much to look forward to, with new weapons systems coming their way, including Patriot missiles, new round for existing missile systems, and more training and field equipment pouring in. They are fighting for their existence.

Here is the latest update on the war from the ISW- RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 5, 2023.

Finally, as always, Russian combat losses and deaths as of today, with daily numbers growing due to the effectiveness, fortitude, and intelligence of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Russian combat losses as of 05 January, 2023

Ukraine Updates- Economics, Strategic Goals in the War, and Combat Losses

Yesterday the Brookings Institution hosted a webinar on Ukraine’s economy. The webinar is archived and available to watch by clicking the link. The first part focuses on Ukraine’s economic situation- its fiscal policy, energy, inflation, and trade, as well as current and future needs. A recurring theme in the discussion was the gap between money that has been pledged to Ukraine and money that is actually making it to the country. There was also a thoughtful discussion on reconstruction, with projected numbers, discussion of where the money might come from, and the need to start the process now. The second part focused on historic examples, first with a history of the Marshall plan, then examples of recent reconstruction projects in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Sudan.

Two recent articles discuss the need for clear, pragmatic, and cautious goals in Ukraine. From the Diplomatic Courier, “Lack of Clear Strategic Goals in Ukraine Risks Escalation” by Ethan Brown, the author suggests that now is the time to consider an “off ramp from conflict escalation.”  He asks “what is the grand strategy?” and references the lack of such in Afghanistan and that unforgivable outcome.  He in no way suggests capitulation, or even negotiation on Putin’s terms, but notes that the Russian dictator is unlikely to back down any time in the foreseeable future, thus suggesting that Ukraine and the world are in this for the long term. 

From Foreign Affairs in the article “Go Slow on Crimea“, the authors Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage suggest caution on the retaking of the peninsula, albeit clearly part of sovereign Ukrainian territory. But they note that not taking it will in fact create unending problems for Ukrainian security, for its relationships with and accession into both the EU and NATO, and again for the rest of eastern Europe, Crimea being a testing ground and staging area for further conquest. 

My take on the situation has never changed- Russia is a terrorist state that perpetuates conflict in order to conquer and rule, and Ukraine is just a stepping stone to the rest of eastern Europe and Putin’s imperial goals. The answer to the problem in short: if you back down from a bully, as soon as you turn your head he will hit you again. Therefor we must:

• Incentivise Russian withdrawal from Ukraine by maintaining and strengthening sanctions and policies against Russia until they squeeze the very blood from the aggressors; this includes freezing (and eventually seizing for reconstruction funding) ALL Russian assets available to countries supporting Ukraine.
• Clearly define that stance that all Ukrainian territory must be returned, including and especially Crimea.
• Continue supplying aid, weapons, and training to Ukrainian forces, and the forces of surrounding countries, and bolstering NATO throughout Europe. 

History teaches us that the Soviet Union, failed experiment in sociological control that it was, finally fell due to economic stagnation and collapse, the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, and the people of Russia and all Warsaw Pact and Soviet Bloc nations getting a taste of western freedoms, democracy, and culture at the end of the 1980’s. History is repeating itself. 

Update on the situation on the ground- key takeaways from the latest post from the ISW:

• Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine—possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed.  A Russian attack from Belarus is not imminent at this time.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives in Ukraine have not changed.
• Putin is using two simultaneous military efforts to pursue his objective of conquering Ukraine and securing major concessions.
• Putin is likely setting conditions for a renewed offensive before the spring of 2023 to coerce Ukraine into offering concessions.
• Russian forces may be setting conditions to attack from Belarusian territory, although ISW continues to assess that the Belarusian military will not join the fighting in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.
• Russian forces continued defensive operations south of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine.
• The Russian officer corps continues to suffer heavy losses in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian partisans conducted a sabotage attack on a power transformer substation in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast.

And finally, Russian combat losses/ citizens sent to their death by their murdering dictator, as of today:

Russian combat losses as of 16 December, 2022

Risks of Premature Ceasefire In Ukraine, Ukraine War Updates

As a follow-up to my recent post about avoiding a Bosnia-style outcome in Ukraine, I have found a related article of interest. Originally posted on the website Criticalthreats.org, the article The Long-Term Risks of a Premature Ceasefire in Ukraine by Fredrick W. Kagan outlines the most likely scenarios if anything other than a complete Ukrainian victory and expulsion of the invading Russian aggressors from Ukraine is not achieved. Simply put, if there is a compromise of any sort in Ukraine, European and world security will continue to be at a higher level of risk; after regrouping Russia will continue its aggression against Ukraine and then into other parts of eastern Europe; and western support of Ukraine is likely to wane once Russia goes on the offensive and begins to win ground through this “diplomacy”, further threatening Ukraine and the world.

Another source of interest is an article from The Washington Post from March, 2022. It discusses the size of Ukraine and its major population centers, and compares them in numbers and graphically to similar-sized US cities.

See today’s post on the Institute for the Study of War for an update on the Russian campaign of aggression against Ukraine. 

Radio Free Europe reports a drone strike at an airfield inside Russia. Part of that report states:

At least one large explosion occurred at a Russian military air base in the Saratov region, about 600 kilometers east of Ukraine, while another blast was reported by Russian state media at an airfield outside Ryazan, southeast of Moscow.

The December 6 incident, coming a day after Moscow accused Ukraine of carrying out deadly drone strikes on two other airfields, prompted the Kremlin to announce that Putin convened a meeting of his Security Council to discuss how to ensure the state’s “domestic security.” No other details were provided.

Part of the comments from today’s Institute for the Study of War update regarding those drone strikes follow:

Anger over the Russian military’s inability to prevent the Ukrainian strikes on Russian strategic airbases over 280 miles from Ukrainian positions outweighed praise for the latest round of strikes against Ukraine within the Russian milblogger community. Russian milbloggers criticized Russian officials for failing to anticipate and prevent the drone strikes at the Engels-2 and Dyagilevo Air Bases on December 5.[10] Select milbloggers noted that Russian military officials have not adequately protected the airbases, with some suggesting that Russian officials did not adequately defend the bases despite knowing that they were clear targets for Ukrainian strikes.[11] Several prominent Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups must have launched the strike against the Engels-2 air base from inside Russian territory, asserting either that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are active inside Russia or – if the UAVs were launched from Ukrainian territory – that Moscow is under threat from Ukrainian territory.[12]

As of today, Russian dictator Putin is responsible for the death nearly 92,000 people. 

Russian combat dead as of 05 December, 2022

Remember that you can support Ukraine no matter who you are. Use the links at the top of the page to donate to Ukraine’s war effort. Shop on their Made With Bravery website and support Ukrainian businesses at the same time. Help keep this free country free. 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Update, and Russian War Dead- 02 December, 2022

The easiest way to keep up-to-date on events on the ground in Ukraine is to visit the Institute For The Study of War website. You can also find updates on the developing situation in Iran there as well. The following is from their update for 02 December, 2022.

Key takeaways from the day’s update:

• Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel obliged to make preemptive concessions to lure Russia to the table.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated as the basis for negotiations precisely the same demands that the Russian Foreign Ministry had made before the February 24 invasion, and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitrii Peskov added the further demand that the West recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory.
• Russian forces still pose a threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite the success of Ukrainian air defenses.
• Additional Western air defense systems are prompting the Russian pro-war community to question the Russian air campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.
• Russian officials are setting conditions to negotiate the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), an agreement upon which Russia would likely renege and that would not eliminate or diminish the ongoing threat to the ZNPP.
• Ukrainian forces made localized breakthroughs southwest and northwest of Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued to make minimal advances in the Bakhmut area and conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area.
• Russian forces may be struggling to properly allocate and deploy forces in rear areas in southern Ukraine due to Ukrainian strikes.
• Poor logistics, unruly mobilized personnel, and domestic protests continue to prevent the Kremlin from achieving the goals of partial mobilization.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to attempt to mask military development projects in occupied territories for no obvious reason.

Russian war dead: from the Telegram Channel Ищи своих (“Look For Your…”) as of 02 December, 2022, the latest figure for Russian war dead has exceeded 90,000. 

Finally, from the Telegram Channel Center for Countering Disinformation from yesterday, Putin appears to be losing support:

#CCD_informs: the administration of the russian president is limiting the number of open sociological surveys on the attitude of russians to the war in Ukraine. State and pro-government russian mass media, sociological centers were instructed not to pedal the military topic and to focus on a «positive» agenda

🔻 The reason is that the attitude of russians towards war has deteriorated, in particular after mobilization and military defeats

🔸 According to the results of a closed sociological survey conducted by putin’s FSS in November, only 25% of respondents support the continuation of the war (in July – 57%, in March – 71%), the share of those who support peace negotiations with Ukraine increased from 32 % to 55%

🔻putin’s authorities are trying to hide the sharp drop in support for the war in Ukraine in russian society. The kremlin fears that a shift in public sentiment could lead to a collapse in putin’s own approval rating and massive anti-war protests

Russian Genocide in Ukraine, Again

Here is a repost directly (without editing) from the Telegram Channel Center for Countering Disinformation.

#CCD_informs: the events taking place in Ukraine today are the Genocide of the Ukrainians!

• On the fourth Saturday of November in Ukraine, the memory of the victims of the famine in Ukraine is held
• The term «genocide» – «killing of the nation» was appeared in 1944, and in 1953 was publicly called «the extermination of the Ukrainian nation a classic example of genocide»
• Communist authorities wanted to subjugate Ukrainians with a repressive policy and the struggle for the revival of their own statehood
• 90 years have passed, and dictator of the russian lands staged a new genocide of Ukrainians
• Today, no one doubts that putin is on a par with Hitler and Stalin.
• «Erasing» cities and killing thousands of civilians, putin «defends Ukraine from the Nazis»
• The memory of the Holodomor motivates Ukrainians to resist another genocide, which was arranged by the enemy
• But it is impossible to overcome a nation that has gone through the Holodomor!

#stoprussia

To learn more about Stalin’s genocide in Ukraine, see the book Red Famine: Stalin’s War on Ukraine by Anne Applebaum. You will gain a very clear understanding of what happened from the time of the revolution in Russia until the fall of the USSR regarding the weaponisation of food and the murder of the Ukrainian people, minorities, and Russians as well. You will also understand the tactics that Putin is currently using against Ukraine and the world.

Ukraine’s Internet Army and Their Army of Drones

I have been researching the use of drones in modern warfare for some time now. My thoughts presently focus on their use in Ukraine of course, and their effectiveness there. I’ve also turned my focus to the fact that the war in Ukraine is like none other ever fought. Ukraine has a worldwide Internet Army online,  using social media, internet marketing, and worldwide networks to support, fund, and promote their free and sovereign country in its fight against Russian aggression. The effectiveness of the Ukrainian government and its Army- all facets of it- lies in their ability to mobilise people in support of their cause, it lies in their unity of purpose as a society, a nation, and a people in their fight against Russia. It is a battle they have been fighting for the last century, and far longer. The people of Ukraine know that now is the time for them to end the fight once and for all, as victors. This is why Ukraine is winning on the battlefield, and will win the war, and a big part of why Russia will lose. This is why the US, Europe, NATO, and the world must support them to the final victory.

If you are interested in helping fund the fight in Ukraine, a very effective way to help is to donate to the Ukrainian Army of Drones.  The link takes you to the page that outlines the requirements for direct donation of drones, and where to send them. You will also find a link on that page where you can donate funds to the cause.

Ukraine is winning. Russia is losing. Russian combat losses and war dead as of today:

Russian combat losses and dead in Ukraine as of 09 NOV. 2022.

 

 

 

 

 

The Continuing Sick and Delusional Thinking of the Soviet Union

Where to begin this post… with so many thoughts bouncing around inside my head? How about the title, which somehow seems incorrect. Maybe so, but what is the “Russian Federation” but a rebranded Soviet Union, continuing the policies of Lenin and Stalin and repeating again and again the rhetoric almost word for word, along with the policies of the former Soviet Union. Rebranded, and more dangerous.

One piece of data is enough for today. During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980’s they lost near 15,000 troops to that war. In ten years- that is 3,650 days. As of today in Ukraine, after 242 days there are nearly 67,500 dead Russian troops.  The pathological despot that claims to be the leader of Russia seems to think that his country has an endless supply of canon fodder, in keeping with Russian history.  Another delusion of the madman.  A breaking point will come, and Putin’s throne will be upended.

Russian war dead and material losses as of 23 OCT 2022.

 

Swept Up by Nationalism, Decline and Fall, and No One to Come to Our Aid

One of the greatest problems with history is that people refuse to pay attention to it. Libraries are full of books which essentially tell us what is going to happen in our society (meaning right now) if we would only read them. History does repeat itself. While it may not be predictable in the sense of modeling, and making definite predictions- see Karl Popper’s Poverty of Historicism, in our day and age we have seen the same events occur over and over, and they will continue to do so. Here I refer to those singular events in history that have affected millions of people at a time, the nationalistic factionalisation of societies with murder, warfare, and destruction as the ultimate outcome, something the modern world cannot escape.

Do we need examples? In the last century alone, in the western world we have “personalities” (I am loath to call them leaders) such as Hitler, Marx, Lenin, Stalin, Mussolini… Milošević, and now Putin. Those are just the “big names” that everyone should know and be frightened by when put into the context of August, 2022. How many more can we come up with, how many lesser-known dictators, agitators, regional would-be authoritarians followed the model and their own psychopathic, deviant beliefs to commit mass murder, genocide, crimes against humanity? And then there is the rest of the world- Asia, Latin America, Africa, the middle east… not a very pretty picture of humanity when you think about it.

As my perennial example I always use the the Balkans, the Third Balkan War- the fall of Yugoslavia. The “personality” in this case was Slobodan Milošević. As I see it, the turning point came in 1987 with his speech at Kosovo Polje, the battlefield where the Serbs were defeated in 1389. Here he reached far back in time- a common tactic- to successfully create a nationalistic fervor that would destroy Bosnia, tear apart Kosovo and many parts of the Balkans, and cause the death of hundreds of thousands. The damage he caused has never been, and never will be, completely repaired.

The difference between the outcomes of these past events and what the outcome might be today is glaring- in 1945 the allies took control of war-ravaged Europe and rebuilt it. After the siege of Sarajevo ended money, aid, relief came and now Sarajevo, for example, appears to be a thriving European city. The mafia state of Russia invaded the sovereign country of Ukraine, and the United States, most of Europe, and many countries in the world have stepped up in opposition.

But if we, in the United States follow the same path and allow our country to be destroyed by a pathological, megalomaniacal, criminal psychopath- the path we are currently on- no one is going to come and save us. No one will come to help us rebuild- we will be on our own.  We will fall, and since we will not be there to lead the world, the world will follow.

Moving on to a couple of current events.  A car bomb in Russia, not surprising.  Agents provocateurs at work, false flag operations, deceit?  Almost certainly. And immediately the criminal state of Russia has issued a declaration, without a shred of evidence, placing blame on Ukrainian agents, and also implicating Estonia for harboring them. More Russian lies- do not believe a single word that comes from them!

Serbia and Kosovo are next. Talks broke down, of course. Serbia is another… questionable government (see above reference to Third Balkan War.) The governing body of the country does not want peace, reconciliation, prosperity for the people of Europe. Hatred, division, violence, and suffering bring power and money- the goal.

Final thought- read. Read everything, and if you haven’t read them since high school or college, today start with Sinclair Lewis’s It Can’t Happen Here. Revisit Walter Van Tilburg Clark’s The Ox-bow Incident. And of course anything Orwell, Jack London’s Iron Heel, and maybe Lord of the Flies and Clockwork Orange thrown in.