Commentary- Russia/USSR- Business as Usual, Georgia War Background, United24- Aid to Ukraine

I have recently been researching Russian military doctrine. The latest official release of their doctrine that I could find was from 2014, though there appears to have been a more recent revision apparently without significant changes. One document that clearly outlines and analyses the 2014 doctrine is a NATO Research Paper (from 2015)- “Russia’s 2014 Military Doctrine and beyond: threat perceptions, capabilities and ambitions.” Clicking the link takes you to a downloadable PDF.

The paper opens with a quote by George Kennan writing as “X” in Foreign Affairs Magazine in July, 1947, which fairly summed up the doctrine then and does so even more accurately today (just substitute “Russian” for “Soviet” if you feel the need):

Today the major part of the structure of Soviet power is committed to the perfection of the dictatorship and to the maintenance of the concept of Russia as in a state of siege, with the enemy lowering beyond the walls. And the millions of human beings who form that part of the structure of power must defend-at all costs this concept of Russia’s position, for without it they are themselves superfluous.

There you have it. In my estimation, the “new Russia” project, which grew out of the collapse of the Soviet Union as of 08 December, 1991, began as a recovery and stabilisation project. As it progressed it became less passive and cooperative, even obsequious, and developed the current doctrine of intervention, power projection, and offensive enlargement. Again, back to the same old tricks, that is, the promotion of total state power through control of the media, security apparatus, a growing army and military industrial complex, withdrawal from treaties and cooperative security organisations, increased missile testing and development, increased numbers and capability of nuclear arms, disregard for the UN and the rules it has agreed to abide by as a member, and broken continually, and so on ad infinitum.

All of this leads to the present day- blatant invasion of a sovereign country with concomitant genocide and war crimes and plans to continue the same across Europe and Asia until Russia’s “great power” has been restored. Regarding war crimes, those in Ukraine are certainly not the first Russia has engaged in- read about recent warrants issued for war crimes in the Georgia war of 2008.

For background on the Georgia war, and an assessment of both Georgian and Russian performance in the war, see the United States Army War College Press Monograph 576, “The Russian Military and the Georgia War: Lessons and Implications.”  Although the war was conducted in 2008, and the monograph published in 2011, it provides detailed and useful background data on Russia’s largest military operation up to 2008, discusses Russian shortcomings, and is a good starting point for understanding changes in Russian forces and doctrine since then. The monograph together with the NATO Research Paper noted above highlight the changes that Russia sought to make and how their failure to implement many of those changes are clearly visible in their performance in Ukraine.

So where does that summary leave us? First, we are on the right track- the west, US, Europe, and the world at large with support for Ukraine. We must continue to support them, and continue to increase our support whether it be food and clothing, medical supplies, ammunition, or the most high-tech weapons systems at our disposal. Russian resources are growing thin. Russian support of Putin’s war of conquest will soon reach a tipping point, and perhaps we’ll see the entire structure come tumbling down. And when that happens we must take full advantage of the situation, and not squander it, and the security of Europe and the world, as we did in the 1990’s!

For today, there are so many ways that each of us can help Ukraine. See the list of links to sites where you can donate in the upper right. United24 is the main Ukrainian government clearinghouse for donations. The Ukrainian Army of Drones is one of the most effective ways you and I can help Ukraine defend itself. Right now Mark Hamill, of Star Wars fame, has become an ambassador of UNITED24 and its Drone Army.  Follow the link to learn more, and to to make a “dronation” to help Ukraine protect its skies.

As of today, 30 January 2023:

Russian combat losses as of 30 January, 2023

 

Ukraine Updates, and Escaping Russian Energy

Eastern Europe is moving forward to replace Russian energy- see the 07 December article at the BIRN website which discusses Balkan-Azerbaijani talks on energy cooperation. The strategic energy partnerships discussed have huge repercussions for the Russia. Not only do the negotiations, and the current and proposed projects allow for the independence of the target countries from Russia, they also grant another measure of independence and security to source countries such as Azerbaijan, and other former Soviet Bloc countries who are part of the projects. If these projects are seen through- and they must be- the power gained by Russia in its weaponisation of energy will continue to decrease.

From the Radio Free Europe website, the article Uzbekistan Rejects Putin-Proposed ‘Trilateral Natural Gas Union’ is another indication that the region, its goals and allegiances are changing. 

Aljazeera reported more promising news in the article EU, Western Balkans leaders meet amid fears of Russian influence. 

From the ISW website, here is their RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, DECEMBER 7.
The key takeaways for the day follow:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine.
• Putin is using Russia’s Human Rights Council to consolidate power while rejecting principles of international human rights law.
• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made comments supporting ISW’s previous assessments that an operational pause in the winter of 2022-2023 would favor Russia.
• Russian forces used Shahed-136 drones in Ukraine for the first time in three weeks.
• Russian efforts to pressure Belarus into joining the war in Ukraine may be causing friction in the Belarusian military.
• Russian forces are likely increasing the pace of their counterattacks in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas.
• Russian forces continued defensive operations and the reorientation of their forces in eastern Kherson Oblast.
• Independent Russian media sources indicated that mobilization efforts will continue despite statements from Russian officials to the contrary.
• Russian occupation authorities are likely transforming Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast, into a rear military and logistics base for Russian forces.

You can support small business in Ukraine- visit the Made With Bravery website and so some holiday shopping! The website is making a difference- it supports small businesses and the war effort through donations to United24, which collects funds for Ukraine. Here is a quote from an email I just received from them:

For the 2 months of brave work, together with your help, we transferred 722,000 UAH or 18,700 EUR to United24, and we will continue to do so! 

To remind you, we transfer all profit from the marketplace commission to the presidential fundraising platform United24 in the direction of ‘Rebuild Ukraine.’ Plus, 5% will be transferred on top if a purchase is made with Visa.

The funds are deposited into the account of the National Bank of Ukraine, and then a special platform commission is directed to current programs for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Currently, we are choosing an exact object for which our brave community will collect the funds. We will keep you informed in the following emails.

Finally, as reported on the Telegram channel Ищи своих Russian war dead has reached nearly 93,000.

Russian war dead as of 07 December, 2022

 

Risks of Premature Ceasefire In Ukraine, Ukraine War Updates

As a follow-up to my recent post about avoiding a Bosnia-style outcome in Ukraine, I have found a related article of interest. Originally posted on the website Criticalthreats.org, the article The Long-Term Risks of a Premature Ceasefire in Ukraine by Fredrick W. Kagan outlines the most likely scenarios if anything other than a complete Ukrainian victory and expulsion of the invading Russian aggressors from Ukraine is not achieved. Simply put, if there is a compromise of any sort in Ukraine, European and world security will continue to be at a higher level of risk; after regrouping Russia will continue its aggression against Ukraine and then into other parts of eastern Europe; and western support of Ukraine is likely to wane once Russia goes on the offensive and begins to win ground through this “diplomacy”, further threatening Ukraine and the world.

Another source of interest is an article from The Washington Post from March, 2022. It discusses the size of Ukraine and its major population centers, and compares them in numbers and graphically to similar-sized US cities.

See today’s post on the Institute for the Study of War for an update on the Russian campaign of aggression against Ukraine. 

Radio Free Europe reports a drone strike at an airfield inside Russia. Part of that report states:

At least one large explosion occurred at a Russian military air base in the Saratov region, about 600 kilometers east of Ukraine, while another blast was reported by Russian state media at an airfield outside Ryazan, southeast of Moscow.

The December 6 incident, coming a day after Moscow accused Ukraine of carrying out deadly drone strikes on two other airfields, prompted the Kremlin to announce that Putin convened a meeting of his Security Council to discuss how to ensure the state’s “domestic security.” No other details were provided.

Part of the comments from today’s Institute for the Study of War update regarding those drone strikes follow:

Anger over the Russian military’s inability to prevent the Ukrainian strikes on Russian strategic airbases over 280 miles from Ukrainian positions outweighed praise for the latest round of strikes against Ukraine within the Russian milblogger community. Russian milbloggers criticized Russian officials for failing to anticipate and prevent the drone strikes at the Engels-2 and Dyagilevo Air Bases on December 5.[10] Select milbloggers noted that Russian military officials have not adequately protected the airbases, with some suggesting that Russian officials did not adequately defend the bases despite knowing that they were clear targets for Ukrainian strikes.[11] Several prominent Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups must have launched the strike against the Engels-2 air base from inside Russian territory, asserting either that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are active inside Russia or – if the UAVs were launched from Ukrainian territory – that Moscow is under threat from Ukrainian territory.[12]

As of today, Russian dictator Putin is responsible for the death nearly 92,000 people. 

Russian combat dead as of 05 December, 2022

Remember that you can support Ukraine no matter who you are. Use the links at the top of the page to donate to Ukraine’s war effort. Shop on their Made With Bravery website and support Ukrainian businesses at the same time. Help keep this free country free. 

 

Russian Terrorism, and Dictators- Theirs and Ours

There is not much more I can say regarding my feelings about Russia, and its mafia leadership. The facts are clear- it is a terrorist state. It is corrupt. It treats is citizens as subjects. It seeks to conquer and destroy and create havoc. It is the path of Russia for the last 100 years, for hundreds of years. That much should be clear after their actions this week. What is just as clear is that Ukraine will never give up, and my sincere hope is that the US, Europe, and the rest of their supporters will never abandon them.

Russia is a terrorist state.

Now, closer to home, I recently caught one sentence by… he must not be named- that is, our own would-be dictator as he announced his intention to run for “president”- I put the word in quotes as his designs on the office have nothing to do with being a president, but more a strongman, a tyrant, a dictator.  The one sentence I did catch in the news, which immediately turned my stomach, was some derogatory line about the US Justice department.  It was in keeping with his “style”; that everyone in our government, all its agencies, should support him fully and blindly, otherwise they are traitors, to be dismissed and forever ostracised by the Party, whatever the definition and proper noun chosen to signify said “party”. Either way it sounded like something said by a 1930’s fascist leader, not a former president of the United States.

As a follow up, from last weekend’s Wall Street Journal, I found nearly the same statement, about the same department. From the article Special Council To Lead Trump Probes. The italics are my own.

Mr. Trump as president repeatedly stated that the attorney general owes a president personal loyalty and should deploy the Justice Department against his political enemies.

That from a US president! Not from Stalin, or Assad, or Kim, or Putin! Our president. If this is not clear evidence of tyrannical designs, and knowing that this is how he went about the business of destroying our country for four long years, grounds for arrest and imprisonment for life in itself, then we as a country are sunk. Food for thought.