Commentary- Russia/USSR- Business as Usual, Georgia War Background, United24- Aid to Ukraine

I have recently been researching Russian military doctrine. The latest official release of their doctrine that I could find was from 2014, though there appears to have been a more recent revision apparently without significant changes. One document that clearly outlines and analyses the 2014 doctrine is a NATO Research Paper (from 2015)- “Russia’s 2014 Military Doctrine and beyond: threat perceptions, capabilities and ambitions.” Clicking the link takes you to a downloadable PDF.

The paper opens with a quote by George Kennan writing as “X” in Foreign Affairs Magazine in July, 1947, which fairly summed up the doctrine then and does so even more accurately today (just substitute “Russian” for “Soviet” if you feel the need):

Today the major part of the structure of Soviet power is committed to the perfection of the dictatorship and to the maintenance of the concept of Russia as in a state of siege, with the enemy lowering beyond the walls. And the millions of human beings who form that part of the structure of power must defend-at all costs this concept of Russia’s position, for without it they are themselves superfluous.

There you have it. In my estimation, the “new Russia” project, which grew out of the collapse of the Soviet Union as of 08 December, 1991, began as a recovery and stabilisation project. As it progressed it became less passive and cooperative, even obsequious, and developed the current doctrine of intervention, power projection, and offensive enlargement. Again, back to the same old tricks, that is, the promotion of total state power through control of the media, security apparatus, a growing army and military industrial complex, withdrawal from treaties and cooperative security organisations, increased missile testing and development, increased numbers and capability of nuclear arms, disregard for the UN and the rules it has agreed to abide by as a member, and broken continually, and so on ad infinitum.

All of this leads to the present day- blatant invasion of a sovereign country with concomitant genocide and war crimes and plans to continue the same across Europe and Asia until Russia’s “great power” has been restored. Regarding war crimes, those in Ukraine are certainly not the first Russia has engaged in- read about recent warrants issued for war crimes in the Georgia war of 2008.

For background on the Georgia war, and an assessment of both Georgian and Russian performance in the war, see the United States Army War College Press Monograph 576, “The Russian Military and the Georgia War: Lessons and Implications.”  Although the war was conducted in 2008, and the monograph published in 2011, it provides detailed and useful background data on Russia’s largest military operation up to 2008, discusses Russian shortcomings, and is a good starting point for understanding changes in Russian forces and doctrine since then. The monograph together with the NATO Research Paper noted above highlight the changes that Russia sought to make and how their failure to implement many of those changes are clearly visible in their performance in Ukraine.

So where does that summary leave us? First, we are on the right track- the west, US, Europe, and the world at large with support for Ukraine. We must continue to support them, and continue to increase our support whether it be food and clothing, medical supplies, ammunition, or the most high-tech weapons systems at our disposal. Russian resources are growing thin. Russian support of Putin’s war of conquest will soon reach a tipping point, and perhaps we’ll see the entire structure come tumbling down. And when that happens we must take full advantage of the situation, and not squander it, and the security of Europe and the world, as we did in the 1990’s!

For today, there are so many ways that each of us can help Ukraine. See the list of links to sites where you can donate in the upper right. United24 is the main Ukrainian government clearinghouse for donations. The Ukrainian Army of Drones is one of the most effective ways you and I can help Ukraine defend itself. Right now Mark Hamill, of Star Wars fame, has become an ambassador of UNITED24 and its Drone Army.  Follow the link to learn more, and to to make a “dronation” to help Ukraine protect its skies.

As of today, 30 January 2023:

Russian combat losses as of 30 January, 2023

 

Ukraine Updates- Putin’s Demise, Orban’s Big Mouth, Czech Republic Elections, and Russian Dead

According to an interview with Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) on 24 Channel, not only is the dictator Putin’s time limited, but the the ability of Russia to continue to wage its illegal war of aggression against Ukraine is waning. There is plenty of evidence for the latter part of the statement, I just hope the first part is as true. Here are some of the main quotes form the interview as posted on the Telegram channel The Center for Countering Disinformation (part of the NSDC):

🔹 «Some events that have been in the aggressor country indicate that the russian dictator is already doomed to defeat»
🔹 «People who are in putin’s closest circle are increasingly aware that russia has no prospects of winning the war against Ukraine»
🔹 «The issue of putin in russia is almost closed. Some people have already known the name of the person who will work there after putin»
🔹 «Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities have their own assumptions about what will happen next in russia and who can become the dictator’s successor»
🔹 «Ukrainians proved on the battlefield that they are capable of defending their independence and freedom»
🔹 «Ukraine’s partner countries will not allow russia to use nuclear weapons. And the nuclear blackmail started in the kremlin won’t have any consequences»

Here is the interview posted on YouTube (in Ukrainian without subtitles.)

Hungary’s Viktor Orban is at it again, acting as a puppet should, following Putin’s lead and stirring up trouble in the EU with disparaging remarks about Ukraine and threats of vetoes when it comes to sanctioning Russian energy. Not surprising at all. If only Orban could be replaced by a better candidate, as it seems the Czech Republic has chosen to do.  In elections there, former general Petr Pavel has beaten the billionaire Andrej Babis in the presidential election.

Comments on Russian “news and information”- remember that all “information” coming from Russia, out of Russia, via Russian sources is suspect,  tendentious, questionable to say the least, and in large part just lies. Manipulation of news and information is part of hybrid warfare and Russia is deep into it, though most of it seems targeted for a Russian audience, as anyone outside of the country with access to other sources will see right through the web of disinformation, propaganda, and in some cases downright humorous attempts at manipulation of facts that Russia passes off internally as news.

From the ISW website, see today’s RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT. From that assessment, comments on front-line Russian milbloggers and information control:

The Russian military command may also be attempting to resurrect its previously unsuccessful censorship efforts targeting the critical milblogger community.ISW previously reported that the Russian MoD conducted several unsuccessful attempts to promote self-censorship among milbloggers from different nationalist factions—including Wagner-affiliated milbloggers—in summer and fall 2022.[26] Russian military command also previously attempted to promote self-censorship among milbloggers by pushing the narrative that Russian milbloggers have been violating Russian operational security by uploading combat footage or revealing Russian positions online.[27] It is unclear if Russian President Vladimir Putin is supporting these restrictions given that he had been appeasing pro-war milbloggers by meeting with them, allowing them to autonomously operate on the frontlines, and tolerating their criticisms.[28] The Kremlin is also continuing to integrate some select milbloggers by offering to let them host TV shows on Russian state broadcasters.[29] The Russian MoD may be conducting its own line of effort to silence the milbloggers independent of Putin. ISW will continue to monitor to see if Putin overrules the Russian MoD’s efforts to silence milbloggers.

The Russian military command is likely attempting to restrict milbloggers’ frontline coverage to regain control over the Russian information space ahead of a possible new offensive. Alexander Kots—a member of the Russian Human Rights Commission under Russian President Vladimir Putin and a prominent milblogger—stated that there are rumors that Russian authorities will require war correspondents to wear bright blue press vests to identify themselves as journalists in the combat zone.[20] Kots and other milbloggers criticized the rumored decision, claiming that high-visibility vests will only help Ukrainian forces deliberately target war correspondents embedded in Russian units.[21] Some milbloggers even admitted that they have been hiding their “PRESS” labels for years and noted that this allowed hundreds of war correspondents to independently work on the frontlines without anyone’s formal orders.[22] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) First Deputy Information Minister Danil Bezsonov also argued that generals who are introducing these regulations should be responsible for each war correspondent’s death after making them an easily visible target on the ground.[23] One milblogger accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of deliberately introducing new bureaucratic requirements that will limit the milbloggers’ ability to operate on the frontlines.[24]

Finally, an update on Russian combat losses from the Ukrinform website clearly shows increasing daily numbers of Russian casualties. Since hitting the 100,000 mark about a month back, the number of dead Russian soldiers has increased by 25,000. That is 25,000 Russian “soldiers”… some soldiers, Wagner mercenaries/criminals, and conscripted students, workers, peasants, and aged fathers and grandfathers killed in about one month. But they are replaceable- according to today’s ISW assessment, Putin is issuing pardons for criminals willing to fight in Ukraine, and has also stated that conscription age will not change in the spring conscription cycle (at least not until reporting day gets closer.)

Russian combat losses as of 28 January, 2023

Russian Terrorism, and Dictators- Theirs and Ours

There is not much more I can say regarding my feelings about Russia, and its mafia leadership. The facts are clear- it is a terrorist state. It is corrupt. It treats is citizens as subjects. It seeks to conquer and destroy and create havoc. It is the path of Russia for the last 100 years, for hundreds of years. That much should be clear after their actions this week. What is just as clear is that Ukraine will never give up, and my sincere hope is that the US, Europe, and the rest of their supporters will never abandon them.

Russia is a terrorist state.

Now, closer to home, I recently caught one sentence by… he must not be named- that is, our own would-be dictator as he announced his intention to run for “president”- I put the word in quotes as his designs on the office have nothing to do with being a president, but more a strongman, a tyrant, a dictator.  The one sentence I did catch in the news, which immediately turned my stomach, was some derogatory line about the US Justice department.  It was in keeping with his “style”; that everyone in our government, all its agencies, should support him fully and blindly, otherwise they are traitors, to be dismissed and forever ostracised by the Party, whatever the definition and proper noun chosen to signify said “party”. Either way it sounded like something said by a 1930’s fascist leader, not a former president of the United States.

As a follow up, from last weekend’s Wall Street Journal, I found nearly the same statement, about the same department. From the article Special Council To Lead Trump Probes. The italics are my own.

Mr. Trump as president repeatedly stated that the attorney general owes a president personal loyalty and should deploy the Justice Department against his political enemies.

That from a US president! Not from Stalin, or Assad, or Kim, or Putin! Our president. If this is not clear evidence of tyrannical designs, and knowing that this is how he went about the business of destroying our country for four long years, grounds for arrest and imprisonment for life in itself, then we as a country are sunk. Food for thought.