A New Year; Russian Dissent, More Casualties, Opinions, and Possibilities

The beginning of another year is upon us. And what a year we have left behind, at least as unsettling as the year before, which was one of the most divisive and frightening in my life so far. 2022- war, geopolitics on a scale unknown in many years, threats of nuclear confrontation, recession, and pandemic. What has become of mankind? A question I will not answer; instead on to some news.

The latest reports from Russia, digging into them at least, reveal some dissent. Growing dissent? Perhaps. There were Putin Christmas ornaments to hang on your tree, using the noose around his neck. People in Russia- not just in Ukraine, when asked what they want for Putin for the new year- answering “death.” More fires, more firebombs, more people speaking out, leaving the country.  Maybe. We only have access to so much information. A note to any young Russian males: according to Ukrainian reports, you only have about a week left to escape after which time borders will be closed and you will be sent to the war, very likely to die. Here is my favorite part of that article:

As Reznikov (the Ukrainian Defense Minister) pointed out, the only reason Russians will be sent to fight this war is “so that you protect criminals, their palaces, their bank accounts, and become criminals yourselves.”

Regarding Russian troops, various reports state the conscripts being sent to Ukraine are responsible for their own body armor, their own uniforms, aid kits, and field equipment. This is a good sign for Ukraine, very bad for Russia and its expendable citizens being sent into the meat grinder. Ukrainian Telegram channels often highlight the “equipment” the Russians soldiers have when captured or killed: helmets marked “child’s toy- does not provide any protection.” Aid kits from World War II! Tourniquets that are nothing more than old belts and rubber straps. Field gear… from a sporting goods store.  And finally body armor that would not stop anything above a small caliber round.

In Ukraine, morale is as high as ever. But that is nothing new. They have much to look forward to, with new weapons systems coming their way, including Patriot missiles, new round for existing missile systems, and more training and field equipment pouring in. They are fighting for their existence.

Here is the latest update on the war from the ISW- RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 5, 2023.

Finally, as always, Russian combat losses and deaths as of today, with daily numbers growing due to the effectiveness, fortitude, and intelligence of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Russian combat losses as of 05 January, 2023

The Strength of Ukraine; War Assessment as of 21 November, 2022

The strength of Ukraine is in its people. Here is one example.

And here is the translation (translation source is LyricsTranslate.com):

O one morning, and yet at dawn

The ground had trembled

And Immediately then our blood had boiled,

Missiles from the sky, the columns of tanks

Old man Dniepro he had then roared!

No one had thought, no one had witnessed

What truly then had been the Ukrainian rage .

Accursed executioners we with out mercy slay

Those who trudge upon our land !

In TerObron are only the very best men,

Only the heroes they fight there in our Armed Forces!

And the javelins, and the bayraktari

For our Ukraine they do strike Russia !

And here our people, and the Ukrainians
Against Russia
Have already united the whole wide world!
And soon there will be no Russia at all,
And there’ll be peace through the whole wide world!

It is no wonder that Russian combat deaths continue to increase, at about 84,600 deaths as of yesterday. When will the people of Russia say enough is enough? The country of Ukraine will never give up.

For a current, detailed  assessment of the war in Ukraine, including maps of the fronts, visit the Institute for the Study of War. Key points for the day from the assessment for 21 November follow:

• Two days of shelling caused widespread damage to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• The Russian government is continuing to escalate control over the Russian information space.
• Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian special services are planning false flag attacks on Belarusian critical infrastructure in an attempt that would likely fail to pressure the Belarusian military to enter the war in Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that it is unlikely Belarusian forces will enter the war.
• A Ukrainian official acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are conducting a military operation on the Kinburn Spit, Mykolaiv Oblast.
• The November 18 video of a Russian soldier opening fire on a group of Ukrainian servicemen while Russian troops were surrendering has served as a catalyst for further division between the Kremlin and prominent voices in the Russian information space.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine amid worsening weather conditions.
• Russian forces continued ground assaults near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Russian forces continued conducting defensive measures and establishing fortifications in Kherson Oblast south of the Dnipro River as Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian force accumulations in southern Ukraine.
• Russian mobilized personnel continue to protest and desert as their relatives continue to publicly advocate against mobilization issues.
• Russian occupation authorities intensified filtration measures and the incorporation of occupied territory into Russia.