A New Year; Russian Dissent, More Casualties, Opinions, and Possibilities

The beginning of another year is upon us. And what a year we have left behind, at least as unsettling as the year before, which was one of the most divisive and frightening in my life so far. 2022- war, geopolitics on a scale unknown in many years, threats of nuclear confrontation, recession, and pandemic. What has become of mankind? A question I will not answer; instead on to some news.

The latest reports from Russia, digging into them at least, reveal some dissent. Growing dissent? Perhaps. There were Putin Christmas ornaments to hang on your tree, using the noose around his neck. People in Russia- not just in Ukraine, when asked what they want for Putin for the new year- answering “death.” More fires, more firebombs, more people speaking out, leaving the country.  Maybe. We only have access to so much information. A note to any young Russian males: according to Ukrainian reports, you only have about a week left to escape after which time borders will be closed and you will be sent to the war, very likely to die. Here is my favorite part of that article:

As Reznikov (the Ukrainian Defense Minister) pointed out, the only reason Russians will be sent to fight this war is “so that you protect criminals, their palaces, their bank accounts, and become criminals yourselves.”

Regarding Russian troops, various reports state the conscripts being sent to Ukraine are responsible for their own body armor, their own uniforms, aid kits, and field equipment. This is a good sign for Ukraine, very bad for Russia and its expendable citizens being sent into the meat grinder. Ukrainian Telegram channels often highlight the “equipment” the Russians soldiers have when captured or killed: helmets marked “child’s toy- does not provide any protection.” Aid kits from World War II! Tourniquets that are nothing more than old belts and rubber straps. Field gear… from a sporting goods store.  And finally body armor that would not stop anything above a small caliber round.

In Ukraine, morale is as high as ever. But that is nothing new. They have much to look forward to, with new weapons systems coming their way, including Patriot missiles, new round for existing missile systems, and more training and field equipment pouring in. They are fighting for their existence.

Here is the latest update on the war from the ISW- RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 5, 2023.

Finally, as always, Russian combat losses and deaths as of today, with daily numbers growing due to the effectiveness, fortitude, and intelligence of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Russian combat losses as of 05 January, 2023

“The Jungle Grows Back” by Robert Kagan- A Must Read

After a very slow and careful reading of The Jungle Grows Back by Robert Kagan, and after much reflection on the past 45 or 50 years of history that I personally experienced, I find that my level of concern over the fate of the world has increased dramatically. Kagan lays out clearly and logically why the United States cannot abandon the world and why we must remain the global leader of the liberal world order we have helped to create, lest the world as we know it disappear from our grasp.

Kagan’s focus throughout is the refutation of the isolationist stance Begun by the Obama administration and adopted wholesale by the Trump administration. He leaves no room for questioning the necessity of US involvement and leadership around the world. Kagan believes that if we revert to our global position prior to World War II, democracy and human rights will backslide globally, authoritarian regimes (Russia, China, Turkey, Korea) will grow and seize more power, and the security of the world will be undermined. In short we would allow the undoing of everything we have spent so many lives, so much time, and so much money since 1945 to promote.

The Jungle Grows Back, by Robert Kagan.

Everything we have helped promote?  Yes, it is true- whether we accept it or not- the US has lead the world since World War II. Kagan gives abundant examples of US leadership over the last 70 years. We have, for better or for worse, taken charge and done our best to make the world a better place. Of course it is very easy to cite arguments against US involvement from past experience, from the promotion of our own corporate interests, to the protection of dictatorial regimes, to looking the other way when human rights are violated.

All this is true; there is no denying it. We could have done better, we could have acted sooner, made better choices, and acted differently as we blundered our way through the last 70 years. But then hindsight is always 20/20. The main question we should be asking ourselves is this: What is the alternative to US leadership? And to take it a step further, what would have been the outcome had we not led the world during that time?

Failure to act is worse- in many cases much worse- than the possibility of acting incorrectly.  Prime examples of failure to act in recent years: Yugoslavia and especially Bosnia and its capital Sarajevo, and more recently Syria. Our inaction left thousands, hundreds of thousands dead.  Of course we are not a “global police force”, but by the same token we cannot sit idly by and let history takes its course. If we do, we will have a world led by Russia and China- not a very promising thought. The bottom line: read the book. It will inform any political thought, and help to assimilate the constant stream of conflicting information in the world today.