Swept Up by Nationalism, Decline and Fall, and No One to Come to Our Aid

One of the greatest problems with history is that people refuse to pay attention to it. Libraries are full of books which essentially tell us what is going to happen in our society (meaning right now) if we would only read them. History does repeat itself. While it may not be predictable in the sense of modeling, and making definite predictions- see Karl Popper’s Poverty of Historicism, in our day and age we have seen the same events occur over and over, and they will continue to do so. Here I refer to those singular events in history that have affected millions of people at a time, the nationalistic factionalisation of societies with murder, warfare, and destruction as the ultimate outcome, something the modern world cannot escape.

Do we need examples? In the last century alone, in the western world we have “personalities” (I am loath to call them leaders) such as Hitler, Marx, Lenin, Stalin, Mussolini… Milošević, and now Putin. Those are just the “big names” that everyone should know and be frightened by when put into the context of August, 2022. How many more can we come up with, how many lesser-known dictators, agitators, regional would-be authoritarians followed the model and their own psychopathic, deviant beliefs to commit mass murder, genocide, crimes against humanity? And then there is the rest of the world- Asia, Latin America, Africa, the middle east… not a very pretty picture of humanity when you think about it.

As my perennial example I always use the the Balkans, the Third Balkan War- the fall of Yugoslavia. The “personality” in this case was Slobodan Milošević. As I see it, the turning point came in 1987 with his speech at Kosovo Polje, the battlefield where the Serbs were defeated in 1389. Here he reached far back in time- a common tactic- to successfully create a nationalistic fervor that would destroy Bosnia, tear apart Kosovo and many parts of the Balkans, and cause the death of hundreds of thousands. The damage he caused has never been, and never will be, completely repaired.

The difference between the outcomes of these past events and what the outcome might be today is glaring- in 1945 the allies took control of war-ravaged Europe and rebuilt it. After the siege of Sarajevo ended money, aid, relief came and now Sarajevo, for example, appears to be a thriving European city. The mafia state of Russia invaded the sovereign country of Ukraine, and the United States, most of Europe, and many countries in the world have stepped up in opposition.

But if we, in the United States follow the same path and allow our country to be destroyed by a pathological, megalomaniacal, criminal psychopath- the path we are currently on- no one is going to come and save us. No one will come to help us rebuild- we will be on our own.  We will fall, and since we will not be there to lead the world, the world will follow.

Moving on to a couple of current events.  A car bomb in Russia, not surprising.  Agents provocateurs at work, false flag operations, deceit?  Almost certainly. And immediately the criminal state of Russia has issued a declaration, without a shred of evidence, placing blame on Ukrainian agents, and also implicating Estonia for harboring them. More Russian lies- do not believe a single word that comes from them!

Serbia and Kosovo are next. Talks broke down, of course. Serbia is another… questionable government (see above reference to Third Balkan War.) The governing body of the country does not want peace, reconciliation, prosperity for the people of Europe. Hatred, division, violence, and suffering bring power and money- the goal.

Final thought- read. Read everything, and if you haven’t read them since high school or college, today start with Sinclair Lewis’s It Can’t Happen Here. Revisit Walter Van Tilburg Clark’s The Ox-bow Incident. And of course anything Orwell, Jack London’s Iron Heel, and maybe Lord of the Flies and Clockwork Orange thrown in.

“The Jungle Grows Back” by Robert Kagan- A Must Read

After a very slow and careful reading of The Jungle Grows Back by Robert Kagan, and after much reflection on the past 45 or 50 years of history that I personally experienced, I find that my level of concern over the fate of the world has increased dramatically. Kagan lays out clearly and logically why the United States cannot abandon the world and why we must remain the global leader of the liberal world order we have helped to create, lest the world as we know it disappear from our grasp.

Kagan’s focus throughout is the refutation of the isolationist stance Begun by the Obama administration and adopted wholesale by the Trump administration. He leaves no room for questioning the necessity of US involvement and leadership around the world. Kagan believes that if we revert to our global position prior to World War II, democracy and human rights will backslide globally, authoritarian regimes (Russia, China, Turkey, Korea) will grow and seize more power, and the security of the world will be undermined. In short we would allow the undoing of everything we have spent so many lives, so much time, and so much money since 1945 to promote.

The Jungle Grows Back, by Robert Kagan.

Everything we have helped promote?  Yes, it is true- whether we accept it or not- the US has lead the world since World War II. Kagan gives abundant examples of US leadership over the last 70 years. We have, for better or for worse, taken charge and done our best to make the world a better place. Of course it is very easy to cite arguments against US involvement from past experience, from the promotion of our own corporate interests, to the protection of dictatorial regimes, to looking the other way when human rights are violated.

All this is true; there is no denying it. We could have done better, we could have acted sooner, made better choices, and acted differently as we blundered our way through the last 70 years. But then hindsight is always 20/20. The main question we should be asking ourselves is this: What is the alternative to US leadership? And to take it a step further, what would have been the outcome had we not led the world during that time?

Failure to act is worse- in many cases much worse- than the possibility of acting incorrectly.  Prime examples of failure to act in recent years: Yugoslavia and especially Bosnia and its capital Sarajevo, and more recently Syria. Our inaction left thousands, hundreds of thousands dead.  Of course we are not a “global police force”, but by the same token we cannot sit idly by and let history takes its course. If we do, we will have a world led by Russia and China- not a very promising thought. The bottom line: read the book. It will inform any political thought, and help to assimilate the constant stream of conflicting information in the world today.

Trickle Down Tariffs Already Causing Trouble

The trouble with tariffs instituted out of desperation, ignorance of how the  world works, egoism, and stupidity is that they are… stupid.

As a retail store and e-commerce businessman, I already see the affects of the tariffs that are going to make America great again (it doesn’t even deserve capitalization.) I will let you in on a little secret- it isn’t going to work!

Sales are dropping and will continue to drop as  tariffs begin to affect the supply chain.  Cost increases will be passed on and on and on, until finally you and I will be paying for those 20% tariffs that are going to save America.  Will wages and income increase 20% as well? Highly unlikely.  What will we do? Rework budgets, forego purchases, and try to ride it out.  And what effect will this have on our economy, on the global economy for which we are responsible (yes, we are responsible for it and have been since the end of World War II)?  You figure it out.

Hindsight is 20/20.  If we would have stayed out of NAFTA and GATT to begin with, if we wouldn’t have agreed to so many “free-trade” agreements, we would not be in this mess.  But that is the past.  Today, we are in the thick of it, part of the global mess we have created, for better or for worse.

Big D., if you read this, you cannot make massive changes to an intricately entangled, delicately balanced system and expect the system to adapt in the blink of an eye. Or even over the course of years. A small storm becomes a typhoon easily enough. Typhoons destroy. A big enough typhoon will destroy everything.

Short-sighted, reactionary, and isolationist responses to world-wide economic issues will do nothing but harm to our economy, and by default, to the economies of much of the world.  It will increase the power of dictators such as Putin, and cause countries that are barely holding on to move backwards. The acceptance and support of populist movements in Europe is just the beginning. A return to the nationalism and fascism that lead us into war are next.

 

Commentary: Trump, Cloud Cuckoo Land, and Our Sinking Ship

How much attention do we need to pay to the “news” to know what is really going on?  I’m asking rhetorically, of course. Being opinionated as I am, I say either you are aware, or you are not. What is happening in the news really doesn’t matter. I have stopped paying attention for the most part, and find that whenever I return to the “news of the day”, the latest “breaking story”, or have a look at the state of the world as reported by just about any outlet, nothing has changed… except maybe the phraseology.

Ben Zimmer, a columnist I can honestly say that I follow, writes in the Wall Street Journal about the origins of the words “crazy” and “crazytown”. His catalyst is a comment published in Bob Woodword’s latest book, “Fear”. Of course the comment refers to our government, to its leaders, to the Big D himself. And while crazytown is a fine reference and takes us right to the point, I think we can take a step closer to the present day with a more contemporary phrase: cloud cuckoo land.

Now for some background: while I avoid not only “news” but as much media as possible- especially television, video, and most anything digital, there are some things I just cannot hide from. One of those is Lego. And of course the Lego Movie. I really am a fan of Unikitty, and think often of bubblegum and butterflies and cotton candy. But sometimes it is just not enough, those days when the line between smiles and frowns blurs, and I realise that cloud cuckoo land and hell might be the same place, with the Big D at the helm, and the whole of civilisation sitting in the boat.

Bubblegum!  Butterflies!  Cotton candy!

Political Commentary- Outcome

My first thought was, “Thank God it’s not Clinton.” Then,”Oh God, Trump.”
Either way, here we are.

History Repeating- Clintons and Friends

In the 1990’s there was a man named Ross Perot who “ran for president”. He was Bill Clinton’s best friend. In the year 2016 there is a man named Donald Trump who is “running for president”. Is he Hillary Clinton’s best friend? I don’t believe in coincidence, I believe in what my eyes see.

Why I’m Voting For Donald Trump

About 8 years ago I was assured by certain of my inlaws that Obama the president was going to save our country, and most likely the entire world. I laughed to myself and changed the subject, something I often do. Now I am hearing the same speech once again, that this Sanders character is going to save our country, and probably the entire world. Another answer to all our problems has been found! I counter with my usual argument: there is no difference between any of these people- Obama, Clinton (Bill), Bush (take your pick), Clinton (Hillary), Sanders, Trump, Cruz, etc. and so on. There is no difference, and nothing will change. Unless…. Here is where Donald Trump as our president may force national, and even global change, in one way or another.

Most people fear any kind of change, be they rich, poor, or in between. Change brings pain, suffering, maybe even wailing and gnashing of teeth. Change can be hellish, even if the ultimate outcome is a positive one. In psychology there is the “dark night of the soul”, the hitting bottom before the suffering can end. To bring about meaningful change, often times symbolic death and rebirth must occur. Think of the phoenix burning and then rising from the ashes. This is what has to happen. Trump may destroy the delicate balance we call our civilisation; if so, a greater one will rise out of the ashes (it won’t take much.) I think we have a better chance of its destruction with Trump than any of the others.

On the other hand, Donald Trump may be a perfectly adequate and capable president. He seems to be standing against the globalist government now in control. The establishment political elite certainly hate him- he seems to pose a direct threat to their plans. He may do away with “free trade” agreements whereby past presidents have given away American jobs and undermined the American dream. He may bring those jobs back, he may revitalise cities, he may stop nepotism, illegal immigration, and corporate control of our government. It might happen.

But it might not. The first outcome is a distinct possibility. If it is, I’ll have a new motto: Tumpocalypse now!

Either way, it’s a chance I am willing to take.