I wake every morning these days wondering what atrocity Russia has perpetuated as I slept. They seem to come one after the other, so many involving the destruction of cities and the killing of civilians. So much for the rules of war. But it is the (former) Soviet Union we are talking about here, now Russia. Jumping back 30 years or so, the primary concern of the architects of the “new Russia” seemed to have been only how to maintain control over the republics, that is, the Soviet satellites. So much of the debate centered on how to keep Ukraine in check, and how not to lose territory, resources, and Russian “property” that in fact never belonged to them. This specifically included the country of Ukraine itself, Donbas, Crimea, and Sevastapol, the Baltics, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and so on- essentially all the countries (and their resources) that Russia had invaded and occupied and that Russia claimed as their own. Russian imperialism, couched in the reforms of Gorbachev- Glasnost and Perestroika, failed. Yeltsin’s Russian “democracy” failed. The only thing that succeeded was their barbaric, imperialistic march toward their centuries-old goal of geopolitical domination, manifested today in their dictator Putin and Russia’s invasion, once again, of the sovereign state of Ukraine.
Seizure, Forfeiture, U.S. and International Law
Lately I have been reading about the economic side of the war, reparations, and future reconstruction. Recently the Brookings Institution posted a report that provides background arguments on restitution, freezing of assets, asset forfeiture constitutional and international legality, and so on. “Proposals to Seize Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Session 22 of the Congressional Study Group” was posted on the Brookings website on Rebuilding Ukraine Will Be Costly. Here’s How to Make Putin Pay for background, and Philip Zelikow’s A Legal Approach to the Transfer of Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine and Laurence Tribe’s essay $100 Billion. Russia’s Treasure in the U.S. Should Be Turned Against Putin for pro-forfeiture arguments.
My summary: whether or not the forfeiture of Russian assets is legal still remains a point of debate amongst the experts. But to me seizure seems clearly legal- or at least it could be made legal by all that I read. Arguments for forfeiture- under U.S. and international law, are supported by various constitutional lawyers such as Philip Zelikow and Laurence Tribe. Paul Stephan in Seizing Russian Assets gives clear arguments against forfeiture legality, but at the same time indicates that precedents are lacking. Based on arguments from both “sides” forfeiture can be construed as a grey area.
While precedent does not exist, international law may be used to justify the forfeiture of all Russian property now under seizure- numerous references are made to the UN Charter, which Russia selectively abides by. They clearly have violated the Charter. Whether or not the Charter allows for forfeiture, or only seizure, is again in question by the experts.
Another argument for- Russia’s cyberattacks on the U.S. could also point to an “act of aggression” against us, tipping the argument toward forfeiture. This would fall under U.S. law- see specifically the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) and the Trading With the Enemy Act of 1917 (TWEA), Also see the Patriot Act of 2001 and how it may affect both Acts.
Finally, and this is something I found no references to in terms of the forfeiture argument, there is the question of crimes of aggression, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide committed by Russia. When and how do these international crimes affect the legality of forfeiture of Russian assets? Perhaps it is time to set a new precedent while these crimes are being committed, rather than waiting till after the fact to sue for restitution. See Sophie Williams’ articles on DiplomaticCourier.com for some food for thought- UKRAINE’S OPTIONS FOR PROSECUTING RUSSIA, AN INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL IS NOT UKRAINE’S SOLUTION, and LESSONS FROM BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA FOR UKRAINE.
Russian Combat Losses as of 21 January, 2023
How many Russians will Putin send to die?
Russian combat losses as of 21 January, 2023
Risks of Premature Ceasefire In Ukraine, Ukraine War Updates
6 December 2022
As a follow-up to my recent post about avoiding a Bosnia-style outcome in Ukraine, I have found a related article of interest. Originally posted on the website Criticalthreats.org, the article The Long-Term Risks of a Premature Ceasefire in Ukraine by Fredrick W. Kagan outlines the most likely scenarios if anything other than a complete Ukrainian victory and expulsion of the invading Russian aggressors from Ukraine is not achieved. Simply put, if there is a compromise of any sort in Ukraine, European and world security will continue to be at a higher level of risk; after regrouping Russia will continue its aggression against Ukraine and then into other parts of eastern Europe; and western support of Ukraine is likely to wane once Russia goes on the offensive and begins to win ground through this “diplomacy”, further threatening Ukraine and the world.
Another source of interest is an article from The Washington Post from March, 2022. It discusses the size of Ukraine and its major population centers, and compares them in numbers and graphically to similar-sized US cities.
See today’s post on the Institute for the Study of War for an update on the Russian campaign of aggression against Ukraine.
Radio Free Europe reports a drone strike at an airfield inside Russia. Part of that report states:
At least one large explosion occurred at a Russian military air base in the Saratov region, about 600 kilometers east of Ukraine, while another blast was reported by Russian state media at an airfield outside Ryazan, southeast of Moscow.
The December 6 incident, coming a day after Moscow accused Ukraine of carrying out deadly drone strikes on two other airfields, prompted the Kremlin to announce that Putin convened a meeting of his Security Council to discuss how to ensure the state’s “domestic security.” No other details were provided.
Part of the comments from today’s Institute for the Study of War update regarding those drone strikes follow:
Anger over the Russian military’s inability to prevent the Ukrainian strikes on Russian strategic airbases over 280 miles from Ukrainian positions outweighed praise for the latest round of strikes against Ukraine within the Russian milblogger community. Russian milbloggers criticized Russian officials for failing to anticipate and prevent the drone strikes at the Engels-2 and Dyagilevo Air Bases on December 5.[10] Select milbloggers noted that Russian military officials have not adequately protected the airbases, with some suggesting that Russian officials did not adequately defend the bases despite knowing that they were clear targets for Ukrainian strikes.[11] Several prominent Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups must have launched the strike against the Engels-2 air base from inside Russian territory, asserting either that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are active inside Russia or – if the UAVs were launched from Ukrainian territory – that Moscow is under threat from Ukrainian territory.[12]
As of today, Russian dictator Putin is responsible for the death nearly 92,000 people.
Russian combat dead as of 05 December, 2022
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At Five AM 