Reflections on Soviet Imperialism and Collapse, and Seizure of Russian Assets

I wake every morning these days wondering what atrocity Russia has perpetuated as I slept. They seem to come one after the other, so many involving the destruction of cities and the killing of civilians. So much for the rules of war. But it is the (former) Soviet Union we are talking about here, now Russia. Jumping back 30 years or so, the primary concern of the architects of the “new Russia” seemed to have been only how to maintain control over the republics, that is, the Soviet satellites.  So much of the debate centered on how to keep Ukraine in check, and how not to lose territory, resources, and Russian “property” that in fact never belonged to them. This specifically included the country of Ukraine itself, Donbas, Crimea, and Sevastapol, the Baltics, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and so on- essentially all the countries (and their resources) that Russia had invaded and occupied and that Russia claimed as their own. Russian imperialism, couched in the reforms of Gorbachev- Glasnost and Perestroika, failed.  Yeltsin’s Russian “democracy” failed. The only thing that succeeded was their barbaric, imperialistic march toward their centuries-old goal of geopolitical domination, manifested today in their dictator Putin and Russia’s invasion, once again, of the sovereign state of Ukraine.

Seizure, Forfeiture, U.S. and International Law

Lately I have been reading about the economic side of the war, reparations, and future reconstruction. Recently the Brookings Institution posted a report that provides background arguments on restitution, freezing of assets, asset forfeiture constitutional and international legality, and so on. “Proposals to Seize Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Session 22 of the Congressional Study Group” was posted on the Brookings website on Thursday, December 29, 2022. It summarises the meeting held on 02 June, 2022 focused on Russian assets now held by the west. There are links on the page to plenty of reading on the subject- more than my non-legal mind can handle, but very informative nonetheless. See specifically Evans Criddle’s Rebuilding Ukraine Will Be Costly. Here’s How to Make Putin Pay for background, and Philip Zelikow’s A Legal Approach to the Transfer of Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine and Laurence Tribe’s essay $100 Billion. Russia’s Treasure in the U.S. Should Be Turned Against Putin for pro-forfeiture arguments.

My summary: whether or not the forfeiture of Russian assets is legal still remains a point of debate amongst the experts. But to me seizure seems clearly legal- or at least it could be made legal by all that I read. Arguments for forfeiture- under U.S. and international law, are supported by various constitutional lawyers such as Philip Zelikow and Laurence Tribe. Paul Stephan in Seizing Russian Assets gives clear arguments against forfeiture legality, but at the same time indicates that precedents are lacking.  Based on arguments from both “sides” forfeiture can be construed as a grey area.

While precedent does not exist, international law may be used to justify the forfeiture of all Russian property now under seizure- numerous references are made to the UN Charter, which Russia selectively abides by. They clearly have violated the Charter. Whether or not the Charter allows for forfeiture, or only seizure, is again in question by the experts.

Another argument for- Russia’s cyberattacks on the U.S. could also point to an “act of aggression” against us, tipping the argument toward forfeiture.  This would fall under U.S. law- see specifically the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) and the Trading With the Enemy Act of 1917 (TWEA), Also see the Patriot Act of 2001 and how it may affect both Acts.

Finally, and this is something I found no references to in terms of the forfeiture argument, there is the question of crimes of aggression, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide committed by Russia. When and how do these international crimes affect the legality of forfeiture of Russian assets? Perhaps it is time to set a new precedent while these crimes are being committed, rather than waiting till after the fact to sue for restitution. See Sophie Williams’ articles on DiplomaticCourier.com for some food for thought- UKRAINE’S OPTIONS FOR PROSECUTING RUSSIA, AN INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL IS NOT UKRAINE’S SOLUTION, and LESSONS FROM BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA FOR UKRAINE.  

Russian Combat Losses as of 21 January, 2023

How many Russians will Putin send to die?

Russian combat losses as of 21 January, 2023

 

 

 

News From Eastern Europe- Bosnia, Hungary, Russian Sanctions, Energy, Training Ukrainian Forces

There are so many important news items, some of them with very subtle nuances regarding events and possibilities, that can only be found by digging a little deeper. Most of these will not even merit a mention in what passes for news sources in the US. Here are a few points of note from the last few days.

• From the Balkan Insight website, Bosnia closer to joining EU. Another milestone is reached towards EU membership for BiH.
• Also from the Balkan Insight website, Hungary considers its suspension of funds by EU as positive. Bosnia moves closer, Hungary moves away.
• From the RFE website, “Hungary, Romania, Georgia, Azerbaijan Agree To Black Sea Electricity Project.” The article notes the move towards reducing independence on Russian energy for all countries, praised even by Orban, and mentions Georgia’s moving “closer to Europe.”
• Also from RFE, Russian victory centers on permanent occupation of Crimea. A follow-up on articles noted in my last post abut strategic goals in Ukraine and the retaking of Crimea, permanently.
• Last post of note from RFE, so many fires all around Russia… the call to those within the country to defeat the Putinist regime is not completely ignored.
• From OvertDefense.com- the US will expand training of Ukrainian troops, as many as 500 personnel per month, on advanced tactics and the use of M777 howitzers and M142 HIMARS.
• Posted on the Ukrinform website, Putin to pressure Lukashenko to join war. 
• From the Foreign Affairs website, if you have access, is an article by Wally Adeyemo, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury. In “America’s New Sanctions Strategy,” Adeyemo reviews the implementation of sanctions against Russia, noting its three major foci: the Russian financial system, elites and oligarchs, and its military industrial complex. The article also stresses the importance of sanctions on today’s battlefield, in this time of the hybrid war. 
• ISW RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, December 16, 2022
• Finally, as of today according to the Telegram channel Ищи своих 97,690 Russians have died fighting Putin’s imperialist war in Ukraine. If they are trying to reach 100,000 by Christmas day, my guess is they will make it. 

Ukraine Must Not Become Another Bosnia

I have pointed out the similarities, and the possible similar outcomes, between Ukraine and Bosnia many times in my blogs. I have repeatedly warned against allowing anything of the sort. Here is an article on Aljazeera by a professor at the University of Sarajevo, outlining exactly the same idea. In his article Why Ukraine should not accept Bosnia-style peace, Hamza Karčić explains the dangers of allowing western “experts” and “mediators” to help in the negotiating process. If you recall what happened in Bosnia in the early 1990’s then you know the dangers. If you are unfamiliar, use this article as a starting point to learn about the horrors of Bosnia at that time, and understand why Ukraine must be supported fully, to the end, when they drive the Russian invaders from their country.

Russia is a terrorist state. Ukraine must not become another Bosnia.

We can all help the people of Ukraine succeed in their fight.  Today and tomorrow all donations made to World Central Kitchen will be doubled, up to 10 million dollars! Give what you can and help feed the victims of Russia’s criminal actions.

In the meantime, the criminal Russian state continues to kill its citizens. As of today Russian war dead totals near 88,000 souls.

At the same time, Russian military incompetence, disorganisation, and poor training continues to fund the Ukrainian war effort. Let’s add more HIMARS to these armaments, and most important of all ATACMS!

Russian donations to Ukraine’s war effort.

 

Swept Up by Nationalism, Decline and Fall, and No One to Come to Our Aid

One of the greatest problems with history is that people refuse to pay attention to it. Libraries are full of books which essentially tell us what is going to happen in our society (meaning right now) if we would only read them. History does repeat itself. While it may not be predictable in the sense of modeling, and making definite predictions- see Karl Popper’s Poverty of Historicism, in our day and age we have seen the same events occur over and over, and they will continue to do so. Here I refer to those singular events in history that have affected millions of people at a time, the nationalistic factionalisation of societies with murder, warfare, and destruction as the ultimate outcome, something the modern world cannot escape.

Do we need examples? In the last century alone, in the western world we have “personalities” (I am loath to call them leaders) such as Hitler, Marx, Lenin, Stalin, Mussolini… Milošević, and now Putin. Those are just the “big names” that everyone should know and be frightened by when put into the context of August, 2022. How many more can we come up with, how many lesser-known dictators, agitators, regional would-be authoritarians followed the model and their own psychopathic, deviant beliefs to commit mass murder, genocide, crimes against humanity? And then there is the rest of the world- Asia, Latin America, Africa, the middle east… not a very pretty picture of humanity when you think about it.

As my perennial example I always use the the Balkans, the Third Balkan War- the fall of Yugoslavia. The “personality” in this case was Slobodan Milošević. As I see it, the turning point came in 1987 with his speech at Kosovo Polje, the battlefield where the Serbs were defeated in 1389. Here he reached far back in time- a common tactic- to successfully create a nationalistic fervor that would destroy Bosnia, tear apart Kosovo and many parts of the Balkans, and cause the death of hundreds of thousands. The damage he caused has never been, and never will be, completely repaired.

The difference between the outcomes of these past events and what the outcome might be today is glaring- in 1945 the allies took control of war-ravaged Europe and rebuilt it. After the siege of Sarajevo ended money, aid, relief came and now Sarajevo, for example, appears to be a thriving European city. The mafia state of Russia invaded the sovereign country of Ukraine, and the United States, most of Europe, and many countries in the world have stepped up in opposition.

But if we, in the United States follow the same path and allow our country to be destroyed by a pathological, megalomaniacal, criminal psychopath- the path we are currently on- no one is going to come and save us. No one will come to help us rebuild- we will be on our own.  We will fall, and since we will not be there to lead the world, the world will follow.

Moving on to a couple of current events.  A car bomb in Russia, not surprising.  Agents provocateurs at work, false flag operations, deceit?  Almost certainly. And immediately the criminal state of Russia has issued a declaration, without a shred of evidence, placing blame on Ukrainian agents, and also implicating Estonia for harboring them. More Russian lies- do not believe a single word that comes from them!

Serbia and Kosovo are next. Talks broke down, of course. Serbia is another… questionable government (see above reference to Third Balkan War.) The governing body of the country does not want peace, reconciliation, prosperity for the people of Europe. Hatred, division, violence, and suffering bring power and money- the goal.

Final thought- read. Read everything, and if you haven’t read them since high school or college, today start with Sinclair Lewis’s It Can’t Happen Here. Revisit Walter Van Tilburg Clark’s The Ox-bow Incident. And of course anything Orwell, Jack London’s Iron Heel, and maybe Lord of the Flies and Clockwork Orange thrown in.

Bosnia, and Its Slippery Slope

Update- 10 January, 2022:
Aljazeera- Protest rallies held in 14 countries to highlight Bosnia’s slide toward conflict.
Balkan Insight- Banned Bosnian Serb Celebration Recalls Memories of Start of War

The US has imposed new sanctions against Republika Srpska political leader Milorad Dodic, along with a few of his associates. The sanctions seem to be more of a token gesture than anything- the new sanctions will likely have very little impact on their targets. As it stands, they may have done more harm than good- they have given Dodic more fodder for his goals of destabilising the country. But such pressure, if followed up, could have far-reaching effects- it could lead to sanctions by EU member nations.  The key to success is to continue putting more pressure on the targets, as well as others associated with them, if any solid outcome is to be achieved. This should be seen as a statement of intent, and not an isolated political move- the already tenuous situation in the Balkans makes action imperative.

One indicator to the path the country is on was highlighted in a recent poll where, in the sample, nearly half of Bosnia’s young people, aged 18-29, have considered leaving the country. Half of those are considering leaving for good. While lack of economic opportunity is reason enough in itself for leaving a country that shows no sign of offering it any time soon, in light of current events, one wonders how much the previous war has on young peoples’ decision making. Of course most of those polled were born at the end, or after the last war, but the memories are recent, and lasting. Denial, and even memorialising genocide and mass murder committed during the war, direct attacks on truth, the revision of history,  and promotion of extreme nationalism alongside lack of possibilities for advancement make a future in Bosnia look bleak. Who can blame the young for looking for opportunity elsewhere?

 

Read more about the sanctions at the Balkan Insight website.

Read more about Bosnia’s exodus at Balkan Insight.

 

So Much Going On… Look on the Bright Side

While I do not deny that I am a “cautious fellow” in all respects, I do try to look on the bright side when life turns dark. From long ago and far away, I often recall a phrase we used in the Army to “brighten our spirits”; that would be “it could be worse; it could be raining.”

For today, I am thankful that drunken nationalists from a neighboring country are not shelling my town from a nearby hillside, and that snipers are not trying to kill me as I tend my garden in the back yard.

Reflections on My Latest Sarajevo Visit- Walking, Carpets, Coffee, and Museums

It has been a few weeks now since I have returned from my latest visit to the Balkans. While there I continued where I left off on my previous visit- talking with anyone who would talk, seeing as much as I could see, and further developing my own ideas about the region.

Most of my visit was spent in Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina. But I also went on to Mostar, and then to the island of Vis in Croatia. I was in Sarajevo late last year, but I felt a need to return, that I had not accomplished all I needed to do there.  I still feel that way, but after a couple of weeks alone in the city I feel I understand the city, the country, and the region a little better. It would take endless pages to record all my reflections; this post is but a snippet, an encounter or two recorded during that time.

Walking-
Journal entry, 13 April, 2018:
It is evening in Sarajevo; the sun has set, but its faint glow causes the still-wet streets to shimmer. Outside my windows, across the Miljacka River is one of the main east-west routes through the city. The Obala Kulina Bana not only moves cars, trucks, and buses through the city, the Sarajevo tram rails share the road. The tram, or tramvaj, is a natural part of the city, public transport being a necessity in a city of this size.  It is an easy way to get from one end of the city to the other, or to get one stop to the next cafe or market. Sarajevo has not only the tram, but trolley buses, and regular buses- all running very efficiently from my experience.  There are routes covering every neighborhood, and you can get just about anywhere in a very reasonable amount of time, if not by public transport, then by taxis which are everywhere. If you don’t feel like catching public transport, Sarajevo is a very pedestrian-friendly city. I have been walking and walking in every direction, discovering more than I ever imagined, and certainly more than any guidebook can relate.

The Obala Kulina Bana and the Miljacka River, on a cold and snowy day in Sarajevo.

Yes, Sarajevo is a pedestrian city, and being so, it is a city where the openness of the people can be felt as you walk down the street. People are out every day, on their way to jobs, to the market, to meet for coffee where they talk and reflect and debate, to… walk and meet other people along the way. I was compelled to walk myself, everywhere, and at all hours of the morning, mid-day, and night, from one end of the city to the other.  What about safety? Sarajevo is a city that feels remarkably safe- not once did I feel uncomfortable anywhere I ended up. In fact, I was surprised time and again at how open and helpful people were.

Bosnian coffee sitting outside at the Ministry of Ćejf cafe at Kovači 26, just up from the Sebilj- an absolute must if you visit the city.

Carpets-
On this visit I was introduced to the traditional weavings of Bosnia- the carpets that have long been a part of the culture, but seem curiously missing from guidebooks, from most online posts, from everyday discussions, and even from museums. I had heard nothing about the tradition on either of my previous visits. But this time, after finding the carpet below on the floor of the apartment I rented, I immediately started asking questions.

Detail from the corner of a 2 by 3 meter “Bosnian” carpet showing traditional patterning. Although I am calling this a Bosnian carpet, it may in fact have been produced in Pirot, a town in southeastern Serbia known for its weaving. Priot is on already on my agenda for my next visit.

Bosnian carpets have a long history, with their roots in Turkish kilims. In Sarajevo, there was the famous Sarajevo Carpet Factory, where rugs were made for over 100 years. Styles changed with the times, but the importance of the carpet did not, at least until very recent times when it seems the “new” has replaced the old. Yes, younger people seem to be turning away from the old styles and trending towards mass-produced, “stylish” rugs from Ikea and the like. At least this was what one person stressed to me.

Another reason for the declining importance of traditional carpets might be the fact that they were an essential part of the dowry, which I assume is no longer important in itself.  Still another factor might be that the important events and entertainments where the carpets were used are no longer centerpieces of life. Carpets were an integral part of both the dowry and  gatherings- they were woven, handed down, or purchased as a sort of investment in wealth. Thus the fact that some very beautiful, 100 year old carpets can be found in almost pristine condition if you look in the right place. You will also find newly woven carpets in a few shops in the Baščaršija. Just ask around for directions if you don’t see them.

Museums-
The bottom line: if you get a chance to visit Sarajevo, do it. The people there will welcome you, not just as a source of income through tourist dollars- which is incredibly important to the city, country, and region, but as a visitor to their city. While there plan to walk; you won’t be sorry no matter where you end up or what you see.  Some highlights for visiting: be sure to visit any or all- if you can handle it- of the war museums. I visited the War Childhood Museum for the first time on this visit, not an easy task, but necessary. There you will find items donated by people who were young during the war, along with their written and video accounts of that time. The war is ever-present and cannot be forgotten. It is a part of everyday life there, with reminders on every street in the city.

The History Museum of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where I saw the permanent exhibit on the siege of Sarajevo. In serious disrepair, dark and cold inside, it felt like I might have stepped back into Yugoslavia. Don’t let that stop you from visiting!

Visit the Zetra Olympic Hall, the stadium, and museum and reminisce about the 1984 Olympics. See the National Museum with its fine collection of artifacts from the region’s early history, and the History Museum of Bosnia and Herzegovina- be sure to go below the museum to the Caffe Tito Sarajevo for an espresso and a look at their museum-like collection. If it is the right time of year, take in a football match- FC Sarajevo or Željezničar– either one will do. See the ancient fortresses, walk along the Miljacka, and sit for a while drinking coffee in the Baščaršija. And be sure to take the cable car up Mount Trebević. It was damaged during the war and has just reopened after more than 25 years!

Wrapping Up-
For current news from the Balkans, see the Bosnia and Herzegovina page at BalkanInsight.com, for what appears to be some of the most impartial and unbiased reporting I have come across.

My first “report” from Sarajevo and the Balkans can be found here. I have also written book reviews on Beyond NATO: A New Security Architecture for Eastern Europe (The Marshall Papers) and Anatomy of a Genocide: The Life and Death of a Town Called Buczacz, both of which are pertinent to the region.

For more reading on the collapse of the former Yugoslavia, see Silber and Little’s The Fall of Yugoslavia. It is an excellent place to start. For a more concise version, see The Collapse of Yugoslavia by Alastair Finlan. For guidebooks, I recommend the Bradt Bosnia and Herzegovina guide by Tim Clancy.

 

Book Reviews- Eastern European Security and the Bosnian War

(Re-posted from another of my blogs- this post needed to be here as well, to support other posts about the Balkans.)

As a follow-up to my recent post on the Balkan wars of the 1990’s, I felt it was time to add more book reviews for those who might be interested in immersing themselves in the issues facing the Balkans and eastern Europe. With the future in mind, first on the list is a recent (fall, 2017) edition from the Brookings Institution titled Beyond NATO: A New Security Architecture for Eastern Europe (The Marshall Papers) by Michael E. O’Hanlon.

In summary, the book argues the case against NATO expansion and presents the alternative of a “negotiated agreement” between current NATO countries, the non-NATO and non-aligned states that would remain sovereign and neutral, and Russia. The catalyst for this new type of security agreement is Russia, and namely Russia’s fear of NATO and the west uncomfortably approaching, and eventually encroaching upon, its borders. The author does cause the reader to step outside the western view that our intervention in eastern Europe, most notably Bosnia, Kosovo, and Ukraine, even when labeled humanitarian, can be construed as threatening when viewed through Russian eyes.

The premise is that the new security architecture would act as a deterrent to Russian posturing and aggression and its plans for military growth, including nuclear weapons. It is believed that the coalition of neutral states, not overseen directly by NATO or the United States especially, will eventually allow Russia to cease their destabilisation efforts in the region, specifically in Ukraine and Georgia, and allow these and other states such as Armenia and Azerbaijan to develop towards normalcy after being able to turn away from a continuous defensive/offensive posture.

While theoretically possible, the concept relies on Russia’s acceptance of the new structure. Whether or not Russia accepts, and if so, their willingness and ability to remain faithful to the agreement, is a different story. There would be a built-in “range of responses” to different threats against the agreement participants, be that Russia or other nations. These responses could include anything from economic sanctions to expedited NATO membership for threatened agreement participants.

Street art in Mostar, Bosnia and Herzegovina, October, 2017. Note the artist’s use of a bullet hole for the left eye, obviously the starting point for the image.

Seasons in Hell: Understanding Bosnia’s War by Ed Vulliamy was published in 1994. At that time the siege of Sarajevo had ended, Serbia and its forces understood that the UN and NATO would actually take decisive action against them, and the concentration camps, mass murder, atrocities, and genocide of the war in Bosnia had been exposed to the world. Vulliamy’s book reports what was known at the time of publication and paints an ugly, demented picture of what was perpetrated on so many innocent people by the Yugoslav army/ the Serbian army, by “paramilitaries”, by criminals and thugs. But he also tells stories of hope, heroism, and bravery, of fighting against all odds, and of how so many of the people of Bosnia endured. Interspersing these stories in a book of this nature is absolutely necessary, lest the sickened reader cast the book aside. If you choose one book to help your understand the war in Bosnia, Vulliamy’s book will painfully, yet clearly meet that goal.

 

More Balkan Coffee

As I prepare to return to Sarajevo in a couple of weeks, I have turned more towards drinking Bosnian coffee. Being a coffee snob as I am, I have very specific tastes.  And one of them is for Turkish-style coffee with a Bosnian twist- officially Bosnian coffee in that country.  Made in a dzezva (one of many alternative spellings I have found), a uniquely-shaped coffee maker, Bosnian coffee has brew and drinking methods all its own.

A beautiful dzezva of Bosnian coffee ready to pour and enjoy. Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The drinking method is the most important part for me- I have been instructed that it is all about time.  Taking time to grind the beans, to brew the coffee, and to sit, to look around, to talk with others. Unlike here in the US, where for so many people coffee is something you get in a paper cup at a Starbucks drive-through window, in Bosnia, coffee is drunk with others, sitting in a cafe, watching people and life. I do not recall seeing a single laptop or tablet at a cafe there. Only people sitting together, interacting, or in the case of those alone, watching the interactions of others, be they passersby or at the next table. We should take a lesson from them.

 

Justice Served in the Balkans

Former Bosnian Serb commander Ratko Mladic has been sentenced to life in prison. Reports state that he was “fighting” till the end, being disruptive, and flew into a tirade before the verdict was read. He was convicted on 10 of the 11 counts against him, more than 20 years after the fact. In an interview on the BBC a survivor of Srebrenica pointed out that it would have been more fitting, more prudent, and certainly more meaningful had the verdict been handed down 10 or 20 years ago. Either way, justice has finally been served.

Read more about the verdict at the Radio Free Europe website. For full information on the trial, see the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia website. If you are unfamiliar with the Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Balkans, the former Yugoslavia and the war they endured there after the fall of the Soviet Union, see my recent post for some background.