Russian Combat Losses as of 20 April, 2022, Russian Passivity and Fear, and the Fall of Putin

Another day of war in Ukraine, and there is death on both sides. We must remember that this war is on two fronts: in Ukraine, on the ground, and in Russia, against Putin and his mafia state. Ukrainian soldiers and civilians stand strong, and have sworn to fight to the end. Meanwhile in Russia the war is just getting started. There are of course Russians who side against the war, against Putin, and against his authoritarian system. But there is not enough dissent- it needs to grow, and it must happen across the ranks, from the top down, and through the entire society- meaning in the government, the military, and the populace. The people of Russia must take a stand. While they have a history of living in fear, compliance, and resignation, the time has passed for that. The best way to characterise what will not work is to quote Solzhenitsyn, from The Gulag Archipelago:

Someday our descendants will describe our several generations as generations of driveling do-nothings. First we submissively allowed them to massacre us by the millions, and then with devoted concern we tended the murderers in their prosperous old age.

Moving on, according to a 28 March, 2022 article in Foreign Affairs entitled How the West Can Weaken Putin by Stephen E. Biegun and David J. Kramer, some 200,000 Russian troops have been deployed to Ukraine which amounts to about 70% of their available ground forces. The same article cites a NATO estimate that some 40,000 Russians have been killed, captured, wounded, or are missing. Those are high numbers, no matter how you look at them. I cannot help but wonder if the Russian people know about these figures, and if they do (which is unlikely) what do they think about them?

On a positive note, I have noticed recently in many of the articles I read that there has been a shift from speaking about if Putin will be removed, to just how and when he will fall.  No more “if.”

 

Russian combat losses as of 20 April, 2022